The first MLB DFS slate of the new week is nine games. It begins at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Thus, it’s a decent-sized slate. Still, the touted selections are trimmed to three pitchers, two stacks and the customary studs and values/punts.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
An ace facing his former team is the unquestioned top pitcher tonight. However, two more righties in good matchups are stellar options as well.
The first MLB DFS slate of the new week is nine games. It begins at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Thus, it’s a decent-sized slate. Still, the touted selections are trimmed to three pitchers, two stacks and the customary studs and values/punts.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
An ace facing his former team is the unquestioned top pitcher tonight. However, two more righties in good matchups are stellar options as well.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Max Scherzer (NYM) at WSH
Scherzer is the top dog on tonight's slate and should dominate his former club. The ace righty has been en fuego since returning from the Injured List (IL). According to FanGraphs, in five starts since activation from the IL, he's had a 1.39 ERA, 2.44 SIERA, 0.84 WHIP, 3.2 BB%, 35.7 K% and 35.6 CSW%.
Scherzer should keep cruising in a great matchup. The Nationals are tied for 20th in wRC+ (94) against righties, 27th in wRC+ (78) over the last 30 days and 29th in wRC+ (77) at home. All of the splits are great for Scherzer's outlook. Finally, according to Betting Pros, the Mets are -245.
Mike Clevinger (SD) vs. COL
Clevinger hasn't been as elite as Scherzer, but he's been sharp lately. In Clevinger's previous five starts, he's had a 3.26 ERA, 3.73 SIERA, 0.99 WHIP, 5.8 BB%, 23.1 K% and 26.5 CSW% in 30.1 innings. Clevinger has also had a quality start in three of those five turns.
He has a fantastic matchup to stay hot tonight. The Rockies are 27th in wRC+ (80) on the road, and they might be less sharp tonight since it's the first road game after six at Coors Field. As a result, the Padres are -230, and the game's total is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs. So, Clevinger is the best SP2 in cash games and an excellent option in GPPs as well.
GPP Recommendations:
Luis Garcia (HOU) vs. BOS
Looking at Garcia's home splits, he might look like a poor selection. He's had a 4.89 ERA in 49.2 innings at Minute Maid Park this year. However, Garcia has had a more encouraging 3.29 xFIP in those games, striking out hitters at a blistering 28.1% clip. Further, he's had a 3.67 ERA, 3.41 xFIP and 28.5 K% in 130 innings at home in his career.
Garcia's high strikeout rate and sparkling xFIP dovetail with Boston's recent struggles and road woes. Over the last 30 days, Boston is 26th in wRC+ (84) with a sky-high 26.7 K%. The Red Sox are also tied for 16th in road wRC+ (98) and 20th in wOBA (.305) in away games. Therefore, Garcia's ceiling is perfect for GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
Patrick Corbin is entirely washed-up. In 21 starts, he's had a 6.49 ERA, allowing 1.54 HR/9. Furthermore, he's allowed at least four runs in four straight games. It's gotten so bad for Corbin that his name has been floated in trade proposals as a salary dump attached to Juan Soto. Yikes. Finally, the last time Corbin toed the slab against the Mets, on May 31, he was beaten like a drum for seven runs on 12 hits and two walks in 4.1 innings.
- Home (PETCO Park)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 7.5 Runs/SD -230
The Padres are in their pitcher-friendly home park tonight. Unfortunately, they also have a handful of underwhelming hitters in their lineup. Nonetheless, they have a great matchup that could bring the best out of them. Antonio Senzatela has had a 4.90 ERA and 5.67 xERA in 15 starts totaling 71.2 innings this year. In addition, Colorado's bullpen has had the fourth-highest ERA (4.55) this season. So, San Diego's offense is an enticing value stack, freeing up salary for some studs and Scherzer.
- Pete Alonso is the elite piece of exposure to Corbin. In his career, in 562 plate appearances against lefties, he's had a .343 OBP, .304 ISO and 133 wRC+.
- Aaron Judge has been going nuclear on opposing pitching lately. He's a must-use player in cash games since he'll be chalky. Additionally, Judge's .396 OBP, .318 ISO and 170 wRC+ against southpaws since 2019 are worth paying for.
- Mark Canha is another look at Corbin, and he has a value salary to boot. Since 2019, Canha has had a .348 OBP and 114 wRC+ against lefties.
- J.D. Davis is a punt who has a 119 wRC+ against lefties since 2019. Additionally, while batter-versus-pitcher is descriptive instead of predictive, Davis's success against Corbin is a cherry on top.
- Adam Frazier hit leadoff against a righty yesterday and will presumably reprise the role tonight with Julio Rodriguez on the IL. So, Frazier is a worthy punt based on his lineup spot alone. However, he's also had an acceptable 102 wRC+ against righties since last season.
- Nomar Mazara is another acceptable punt. He's not exciting, but at nearly the minimum salary, his 100 wRC+ in 2022 will do.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Mets are the primary stack to focus on tonight. However, the Padres are a viable option in GPPs and a source of punts. In cash games, it's imperative to use Alonso and Judge with Scherzer. So, it's also necessary to punt and hunt for values.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
