A great way to get a sense of players to target and a void is to see how our expert rankings compare to average draft position (ADP). If the ADP is higher than the expert rankings, you may want to consider these players at their current draft-day cost. Let’s take a look at players our expert consensus likes less than ADP.
Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.
Running Backs Experts Like Less Than ADP
Derrick Henry (TEN)
ECR RB5 | ADP RB4
It doesn’t feel great to fade a 6-3, 247-pound force of nature who’s averaged 115.5 rushing yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game over the last three seasons. But time isn’t kind to running backs, and Henry is entering his age-28 season. Maybe Henry is such a remarkable physical specimen that he’ll defy the age curve. However, we know that betting on running backs in their late 20s is generally imprudent.
Henry is coming off a significant foot injury, and he has a lot of mileage on the odometer. Henry has 1,664 career touches (playoffs included), with 65.1% of those touches coming in the last three years. That’s a risky profile for a player who’s typically a top-five draft pick.
Nick Chubb (CLE)
ECR RB12 | ADP RB8
The days of Nick Chubb‘s absurd rushing efficiency going to waste have come to an end. During his four-year career, the Browns running back has never averaged fewer than five yards per carry. But at the same time, he has also never played in a top-12 scoring offense.
The best offense he played was in 2020 – 13th in points per game – which by no coincidence was also Chubb’s best season from a point per game measure. The former Georgia back averaged 17.3 PPR points per game, which would have ranked sixth in 2021.
The 12 rushing touchdowns definitely boosted Chubb’s numbers, and scoring double-digit TDs is well within his reach with Deshaun Watson taking charge after his 6-game suspension.
Just be wary that Chubb won’t be used as an every down back. Even when Kareem Hunt missed time in 2021, Chubb’s role/usage didn’t change drastically with the Browns sprinkling in other running backs on the depth chart. His 17-18 touches per game average the last two seasons shouldn’t change even if the team trades Hunt this offseason.
Chubb’s role as a receiver also leaves a lot to be desired after he posted a meager 4.8% target share in 2021, averaging fewer than two targets per game (1.8).
His path to upside is touchdowns and that’s represented by his five top-6 weekly finishes last season – fourth among running backs.
Javonte Williams (DEN)
ECR RB14 | ADP RB11
Running back Melvin Gordon signed a one-year deal with the Denver Broncos, ultimately halting the Javonte Williams 2022 breakout season. The idea of Williams playing a three-down role was salivating, but Gordon’s return should not be overlooked after a seriously underrated 2021 campaign.
MG3’s return definitely hurts Williams’ top-tier fantasy ceiling. He’s going to split work with another capable back in Gordon which is exactly what new head coach Nathaniel Hackett desires and spoke on at the NFL owners meeting in March.
However, keep in mind that Williams finished 13th in touches last season (246, 14.6 per game) and would be the favorite to take another step forward in the passing game – Aaron Jones-esque – after finishing as one of two rookie RBs inside the top-15 in route participation in 2021: Najee Harris (first) and Javonte Williams (13th).
Williams falls just out of the fantasy RB1 conversation for me in redraft and best ball, but he’s right on the cusp. I don’t think he can be ranked worse than RB15 considering that’s where he finished as a rookie amid a split workload in a much worse offensive environment.
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Antonio Gibson (WAS)
ECR RB25 | ADP RB19
Antonio Gibson has been a solid option over the last two seasons as the RB16 and RB17 in fantasy points per game. He also ranked tenth in yards per route run, fifth in evaded tackles, and 14th in juke rate. He was tied for seventh in carries inside the five-yard line and eighth in weighted opportunities. We already know the pass game usage is capped with J.D. McKissic resigned, but now the goalline could be in jeopardy with Brian Robinson on the depth chart. The team has talked about lightening Gibson’s load, so the threat of Robinson is real, especially if Gibson keeps putting the ball on the turf. Since 2020 he’s tied with Ezekiel Elliott for the most fumbles (six) in the NFL among running backs.
Josh Jacobs (LV)
ECR RB24 | ADP RB21
Josh Jacobs was a volume hog last year, ranking ninth in opportunity share and weighted opportunity, but that will be difficult to repeat in 2022. Jacobs’ ranking of RB23 in ECR is ambitious, considering he’ll be sitting on the sidelines on many passing downs. Brandon Bolden, Kenyan Drake and Ameer Abdullah ranked fourth, sixth and 15th in yards per route run last year among running backs (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). If any of these backs also eat into his red-zone work, he’s toast in 2022.
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
