A pair of 2-4 teams square off on Thursday Night Football. Sure, their records haven’t been anything to write home about. Still, the Saints and Cardinals are in the thick of the hunt for their respective divisions. The teams ahead of them have 3-3 records. Thus, New Orleans and Arizona are motivated to win this week and forge forward. The spread reflects a likely close game, and the final thoughts about lineup construction consider that.
Game: New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: ARI -1.5 Points
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
Saints Analysis: The quarterback situation is as good as it can be for the Saints but a nightmare for DFS. Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston are off the injury report.
Ideally, the Saints will announce a starter before the game. So, gamers need to stay tuned. Obviously, whoever starts is the DFS-relevant option. However, there's a risk of an in-game benching if the offense struggles. As a result, it's a risky situation.
Still, most starting quarterbacks have appeal on a showdown slate, and this isn't an exception. The matchup is good, too. According to Football Outsiders, the Cardinals are 24th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Thus, there's an opportunity for Dalton or Winston to succeed. Though, they'll have to do so without Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Adam Trautman. Finally, if the Saints don't name a starter, it's not unreasonable to build identical lineups except for Dalton on one and Winston on the other.
Taysom Hill is the elephant in the room for the Saints. The gadget "tight end" is an explosive playmaker. But, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he's run only 18 routes, catching his lone target for two yards.
However, Hill has completed three passes on five attempts for 38 yards and a touchdown. More impressively, he's rumbled for 267 yards and five touchdowns on 26 attempts. Hill's usage is undeniably unique, and he's a genuine terror for opponents in the red zone. Hill has scored four touchdowns on five rush attempts inside the 20-yard line, and his three rushes inside the 10-yard line are equal to New Orleans's other players combined.
Hill's salary isn't appealing. Still, his touchdown upside is grounds for considering him, despite his underwhelming projection. Basically, Hill is a boom-or-bust option.
Alvin Kamara hasn't attempted a run inside the 10-yard line. That's not ideal. Further, a return from Winston might not be good for his receiving outlook. In two games with Winston starting this year, Kamara had five receptions for 19 scoreless yards on 11 targets. However, Kamara has been in a groove in two games played with Dalton, amassing 202 rushing yards, 116 receiving yards and 12 receptions.
Kamara's value is higher with Dalton starting. Regardless, the Saints will need him to play an integral role with the absences in their receiving corps. So, don't dismiss Kamara if Winston starts.
Fortunately, Chris Olave is back from a one-game absence while recovering from a concussion. The rookie has been quarterback-proof. Moreover, he's still the Intended Air Yards king. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Olave's 774 Intended Air Yards are the most in the NFL.
Olave has also parlayed his air yards into success. He's scored two touchdowns with per-game averages of 5.0 receptions and 77.8 receiving yards. Olave has also been a target earner, garnering a target on 27.0% of his routes.
Sadly, the matchup is challenging. According to Football Outsiders, the Cardinals have allowed the fewest yards per game (44.2) to No. 1 wideouts. So, there's some risk for gamers using Olave. Nevertheless, Olave's talent can win out in a tricky matchup.
Marquez Callaway and Juwan Johnson are useful punts. According to PFF, Callaway has led the Saints in routes (82) and targets (16) in the last three weeks. However, Callaway also has a formidable matchup. The Cardinals have held No. 2 wideouts to only 46.1 receiving yards per game, a pinch under the league average (50.9). Still, Callaway's route participation has been good enough to warrant punt consideration.
Still, Johnson is the most exciting punt on the showdown slate. Since Week 4, Johnson has been second on the Saints in routes (63). Encouragingly, he's also garnered attention from Winston and Dalton. Johnson was targeted 13 times in three games with Winston, hauling in six receptions for 83 yards. Meanwhile, he's had eight receptions for 88 yards on 12 targets in Dalton's three starts.
I've buried the lede with Johnson. The matchup is the biggest draw for him. Tight ends have barbecued the Cardinals. Arizona has allowed the most receiving yards per game (79.6) to tight ends this season.
Cardinals Analysis: The Cardinals are broken on offense. Unfortunately, field-stretching wideout Marquise Brown is hurt, removing an integral weapon from the offense. However, the return of DeAndre Hopkins is exciting.
Still, the offense goes as free-wheeling Kyler Murray goes. Muray has averaged 243.8 passing yards per game with six touchdowns and four interceptions, leaving much to be desired as a passer. Fortunately, he's bolstered his value with his legs. Murray is averaging 38.8 rushing yards per game with two touchdown runs. So, Murray has multiple avenues for getting home as a DFS selection.
In addition, the matchup is good. The Saints are 21st in pass defense DVOA. Further, per Pro-Football-Reference, they've allowed 107 yards on 23 carries to quarterbacks this year. As a result, Murray is my favorite pick from the Cardinals.
Nuk returns from his six-game suspension this week, and Arizona will need him to shoulder meaningful work with Hollywood injured. The veteran wideout had an underwhelming year last season, averaging 4.2 receptions and 57.2 yards per game. However, Hopkins had a nose for the endzone, scoring eight touchdowns in 10 games.
Hopkins may be rusty or pick up where he left off, sans the touchdowns in Arizona's stumbling offense. So, the floor is low for Nuk. Yet, he's greeted by a dreamy matchup. Marshon Lattimore is out, and the Saints have been cooked by No. 1 wideouts, allowing the sixth-most receiving yards per game (84.5) to them.
Zach Ertz isn't exciting, but he's been rock-solid this year. He's caught at least six passes in five consecutive games, reaching at least 45 yards in each of those contests. The veteran tight end also had two receptions for 14 yards, one touchdown and a two-point conversion in the opener. So, Ertz has been a massive part of Arizona's offense.
Sadly, the matchup isn't ideal. The Saints have allowed the third-fewest yards per game (29.7) to tight ends. Still, Ertz's target volume should help him overcome the matchup.
Finally, Rondale Moore has emerged in the offense. The second-year wideout was injured through the first three weeks and had a dud in his season debut in Week 4. Yet, he's had 13 receptions for 117 yards on 18 targets in the previous two games. Since Week 5, Moore has earned a target on 19.5% of his 87 routes. Further, per PFF, he's had a 2.8-yard Average Depth of Target (aDOT) in the past two games. So, Moore is being fed high-percentage targets near the line of scrimmage. Moore's low aDOT usage makes him a more interesting option at DraftKings than FanDuel because of the former's full-point point-per-reception (PPR) scoring format.
Final Thoughts: Murray is my favorite captain/MVP for this slate. Johnson is a lineup lock in a flex spot at both DFS providers for me. Beyond them, gamers are encouraged to mix in the featured players above. Finally, balanced lineups are my favorite construction for this showdown slate.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
