The NFC East closes the book on Week 10 when the Eagles host the Commanders on Monday Night Football. Philadelphia is a double-digit favorite, and the NFL’s last undefeated team is well-represented below. Still, gamers have to use at least one player from Washington. Thankfully, they have a few interesting options.
Game: Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: PHI -11.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
The NFC East closes the book on Week 10 when the Eagles host the Commanders on Monday Night Football. Philadelphia is a double-digit favorite, and the NFL’s last undefeated team is well-represented below. Still, gamers have to use at least one player from Washington. Thankfully, they have a few interesting options.
Game: Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: PHI -11.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Commanders Analysis: Washington is likely to lean on their run until they're forced into catch-up mode. According to numberFire, the Commanders have attempted 77 passes and 77 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in Taylor Heinicke's three starts.
Additionally, Philadelphia is more giving on the ground than through the air. According to Football Outsiders, the Eagles are second in pass defense DVOA and 27th in rush defense DVOA. Teams have attempted 102 passes and 86 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts this season. Further, the Texans fed Dameon Pierce 23 carries and passed only 15 times with Davis Mills when they were in a neutral game script last week. The Eagles struggled mightily defending Houston's rushing attack without massive rookie Jordan Davis in the middle of the defensive line.
Thus, Antonio Gibson is an enticing selection. He's primarily split the rushing workload with Brian Robinson during the last two games. Since Week 8, Robinson has rushed 21 times for 64 yards, and Gibson has handled 18 attempts for 55 yards. However, Gibson is likelier to be on the field when Washington is in a negative game script. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Gibson ran 18 routes to 11 for Robinson without pass-catching back J.D. McKissic last week. McKissic is out again this week. So, Gibson should be in store for half of the rushing workload and the bulk of the pass-catching work.
Curtis Samuel is also a threat to chip in on the ground. He's carried the ball nine times for 68 yards in neutral game scripts this season. In Heinicke's three starts, Samuel has toted the rock five times, four and once for 26, 29 and 16 yards. And, of course, he's a weapon in the passing game. The veteran wideout has averaged 5.3 targets, 3.7 receptions and 56 receiving yards per game in Heinicke's three starts.
In addition, Samuel is largely used in the slot, playing 62.9% of his passing snaps aligned in the slot in the previous three weeks. Aligning in the slot might be a good thing against the Eagles. First, the typical starting slot corner Avonte Maddox is out. Josiah Scott is expected to fill his void, and he's struggled in his limited slot opportunities. Per PFF, slot players have six receptions for 68 yards, 43 Yards After the Catch, a touchdown and earned a 126.2 Quarterback Rating on Scott's 60 coverage snaps in the slot.
Armani Rogers is the final featured player on Washington's table. The rookie tight end has flashed and is an inviting choice at DraftKings for only $200. Since Week 7, he's run 36 routes, more than John Bates's 17. During that three-game stretch, Rogers has had four receptions for 41 yards on five targets and chipped in a 24-yard run last week. So, he's had enough involvement in Washington's offense to merit a look at DK.
Eagles Analysis: These aren't your run-first 2021 Eagles. Instead, they've attempted 160 passes, 110 rushes by non-quarterbacks and 52 attempts by Jalen Hurts in neutral game scripts this year. It's a balanced offense led by a blossoming quarterback.
Hurts has averaged 255.3 passing yards and 40.8 rushing yards per game this season, and he's scored six times on the ground while tossing a dozen touchdowns. The dual-threat quarterback is a one-man wrecking crew. He faces a stout defense against the run and is vulnerable against the pass.
Washington is second in rush defense DVOA and 25th in pass defense DVOA. As a result, teams have passed more than they've run against them in neutral game scripts, airing it out 203 times versus 154 rushes by non-quarterbacks. The Eagles also had the same idea in Week 3, passing 10 times and rushing seven times in neutral game scripts.
Hurts is a game-script-proof option. Yet, his arm is the most exciting part of his skill set in this matchup, and his ability to carve up Washington through the air is ideal for his wideouts. Dallas Goedert is notably absent from Philadelphia's table because he has a more challenging matchup than the receivers. According to Football Outsiders, tight ends average the third-fewest yards per game (34.0) against the Commanders. Goedert salvaged his fantasy line in the first meeting by scoring a touchdown, but he also had only three receptions for 26 yards on four targets.
Thus, the wide receivers are more intriguing in a smash spot. No. 1 wideouts average the sixth-most receiving yards per game (85.8), No. 2 wideouts average the fourth-most receiving yards (61.1), and other wideouts average the 14th-most receiving yards per game (47.1) against Washington this season.
A.J. Brown is the alpha in Philadelphia's aerial assault, averaging 5.4 receptions and 89.8 receiving yards per game and finding paydirt six times. He torched the Commanders for five receptions, 85 yards and a touchdown in Week 3. Yet, DeVonta Smith stole the show in that game, eviscerating his NFC East foe for eight receptions, 169 yards and a touchdown.
Hurts successfully aired it out deep in the first game, completing four of nine passes that traveled at least 15 Air Yards for 167 yards. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 26 of 61 pass attempts that traveled at least 15 Air Yards against Washington this year for 817 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. As a result, speedster Quez Watkins is an exciting selection.
The Eagles have used Watkins deep and fed him some layup targets to get the ball in his hands. According to PFF, he has one 53-yard touchdown reception on three passes that traveled at least 20 yards and has hauled in all four of his targets behind the line of scrimmage. Watkins is usually an afterthought in Philadelphia's passing attack, but he has home-run speed and a favorable matchup, making him a nifty showdown selection.
Final Thoughts: Hurts is the most attractive pick on this slate and the best option for the captain/MVP spot. Brown and Smith are also worthwhile options for the captain/MVP spot for gamers entering multiple lineups into contests. Finally, gamers are encouraged to build unbalanced lineups that are Philly-centric.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
