The Chiefs are out of their bye week and ready to lay a beatdown on the visiting Titans. Kansas City is a 12.5-point favorite, and the picks reflect they should handle their business. Still, gamers must use at least one player from the Titans to satisfy lineup requirements. Finally, gamers can’t roster all of Kansas City’s options. So, the picks below whittle the options to a manageable number.
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The Chiefs are out of their bye week and ready to lay a beatdown on the visiting Titans. Kansas City is a 12.5-point favorite, and the picks reflect they should handle their business. Still, gamers must use at least one player from the Titans to satisfy lineup requirements. Finally, gamers can’t roster all of Kansas City’s options. So, the picks below whittle the options to a manageable number.
Check out all of our Week 9 fantasy football content
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Game: Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -12.5 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Titans Analysis: The Titans will ride Derrick Henry as long as they can. According to numberFire, Henry has attempted 112 rushes in neutral game scripts, the other backs have combined for eight attempts and the quarterbacks have thrown just 108 times.
Henry's yeomen effort has resulted in an NFL-high 107.9 rushing yards per game and seven touchdowns. The matchup is stellar, too. According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs are 17th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Running backs have also torched them through the air. Per Football Outsiders, running backs average the second-most receiving yards per game (61.2) against Kansas City. In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, running backs have an NFL-high 61 receptions against the Chiefs this year, despite Kansas City having their bye last week.
Kansas City's struggles against backs in the passing game are great for Henry and Dontrell Hilliard. Henry is averaging a career-high 20.0 receiving yards per game on two receptions per game. Meanwhile, Hilliard averages 2.2 receptions and 24.0 receiving yards per game.
They've both been highly efficient, too. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Hilliard is first in Yards per Route Run (2.48), and Henry is fourth (2.03 Y/RR) out of 38 running backs targeted at least 15 times this season. So, Henry can get home if the Titans keep the game competitive for longer than expected or by chipping in as a receiver. Conversely, a quick hole for the Titans is the optimal path for Hilliard to soak up work in comeback mode.
Chigoziem Okonkwo is a reasonable pick at the minimum salary. The rookie tight end has eye-catching workout metrics, and he's set season-highs for routes in two games since Tennessee's Week 6 bye, albeit running eight in Week 7 and seven in Week 8. However, Okonkwo's seven routes were moderately impressive last week since they represented half Malik Willis's 14 dropbacks. So, gamers should consider the rookie tight end as a punt, freeing up the maximum cap space for the Chiefs.
Chiefs Analysis: Patrick Mahomes is slinging it. He's attempted 173 passes versus only 84 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts this year. Moreover, Mahomes keeps airing it out when Kansas City leads by a wide margin. He's chucked it 53 times compared to 47 rushes by non-quarterbacks when the Chiefs lead by at least eight points in 2022.
As a result, Mahomes averages the second-most passing yards per game (308.4) and leads the NFL in touchdown passes (20). Fortunately, he has an ideal matchup for a hefty passing workload. Quarterbacks who've faced the Titans this year have thrown the ball 127 times in neutral game scripts, much more than the 67 runs by non-quarterbacks against Tennessee. So, Mahomes has a sky-high ceiling tonight.
There will be plenty of pass attempts to spread around to many pass-catchers, but Travis Kelce is the clear-cut top dog. He leads the Chiefs in receptions per game (6.7), receiving yards per game (79.0) and touchdown receptions (seven), comfortably ahead of his peers in each category. The matchup is tasty as well. Tight ends have the ninth-most receiving yards per game (58.6) against the Titans. Sometimes, it's simple. Using Kelce on this showdown slate is a simple and correct decision.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is the second-most attractive pass-catching choice from the Chiefs. The veteran wideout is second on the cub in receptions per game (4.9) and receiving yards per game (70.6). Additionally, Smith-Schuster had his two best games of the year in Kansas City's two previous games, exploding for five receptions, 113 yards and a touchdown in Week 6 and seven receptions, 124 yards and one touchdown in Week 7.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the next person in the pass-catching pecking order. According to PFF, he's second on the team in routes (108) since Week 5, 44 clear of Mecole Hardman's 64, the third-most routes by a receiver on the Chiefs in that span. Hardman, Skyy Moore and Justin Watson have rotated behind Smith-Schuster and MVS. Now, Kadarius Toney joins the fold.
Nevertheless, Watson is an acceptable contrarian pick. Sure, his 19 routes since Week 5 are fewer than Hardman's 64 and Moore's 38. However, Watson's a lift-lifting option, and Hardman and Moore are more similar to Toney. Additionally, Watson has played special teams this year, reducing the odds he's inactive and awarding him a chance to sneak onto the field occasionally on offense. Watson also has a long touchdown reception on his ledger from Week 2 and a touchdown in the red zone in Week 7. Moreover, Watson's touchdown in Week 7 came when the Chiefs were up only 21-16, meaning it wasn't a garbage-time touchdown.
Isiah Pacheco is overpriced on FanDuel and underpriced on DraftKings. Thus, he's a poor pick at the former and a stellar selection at the latter. Unfortunately, the matchup is challenging. The Titans are first in rush defense DVOA. However, Pacheco might see enough volume to deliver as a punt at DK. The rookie back might get a post-bye playing-time boost, and he's already headlined Kansas City's backfield when they've hammered opponents. Pacheco had rushed 23 times for 141 yards and a touchdown when the Chiefs led by at least eight points. Clyde Edwards-Helaire handled 17 rushes for only 68 yards, and Jerick McKinnon toted the rock six times for 21 yards.
However, McKinnon can pan out as a punt via his receiving chops. Jet has run 59 routes since Week 5, besting CEH's 43 and Pacheco's 14. McKinnon also paced the backfield in targets (nine), receptions (seven) and receiving yards (84) in Kansas City's last three games. Finally, the Chiefs might lean on their pass-catching back instead of running into the scrum against Tennessee's stout run defense.
The Chiefs are massive favorites at home, and their defense will face Willis in his second start or Ryan Tannehill on a gimpy ankle. Either scenario is outstanding. According to PFF, Willis took the most sacks (51) in FBS last year. The raw rookie has taken three sacks on only 14 attempts for the Titans.
Meanwhile, Tannehill isn't a stranger to taking sacks. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he has the seventh-highest sack rate (8.8) among qualified quarterbacks this year. A bum wheel won't improve Tannehill's ability to evade rushers. As a result, Kansas City's defense is an attractive showdown pick against either quarterback.
Final Thoughts: Mahomes is easily my favorite captain/MVP. However, Kelce's an acceptable pivot. Henry isn't crazy as a captain/MVP, either. If the Titans can keep it close into the third quarter, Henry as the captain/MVP and Mahomes with four teammates (three on FD) in the flex spots can be a winning formula. Finally, I won't use more than the minimum required one Titan on any of my showdown lineups.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
