2022 Fantasy Baseball ADP Recap: Round 3
As we head into the new year and ramp up the 2023 fantasy baseball draft prep, let’s look back at the early rounds of the 2022 drafts. Part 3 of my five-part series will review each pick of round three. This series will focus on 12-team leagues, so 60 players are discussed, and will use end-of-draft season ADP from CBS. I chose CBS over ESPN and Yahoo as some of the ADP was wonky, and this made the most sense for this exercise.
Looking back on what went right and wrong from the previous season is an excellent exercise before digging into the 2023 research. So we will dig in and see what players were worth the draft day price. Which players were busts? And even which players were major hits that likely helped fantasy players win leagues.
The results of a draft pick can vary from format to format, so I will focus on 5×5 ROTO formats, but the information should also help points leagues and H2H players. If you have any further questions on the analysis by rounds or more for your 2023 season, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter. But first, let’s look at picks 25-36 of the 2022 draft season.
2022 Fantasy Baseball ADP Recap
The veteran Marte completed his first season with the Mets, and it did not live up to his early-round billing. He missed more time due to injury, mainly because he only played 118 games. However, Marte still hit 16 home runs and stole 18 bases while hitting .292, which is solid but not early third-round solid. Marte brings substantial fantasy value when healthy, but he has not played over 140 games since 2018.
Urias backed up a great 2021 season with another excellent fantasy season in 2022. He racked up 17 more wins over 175 innings with elite ratios. His 2.16 ERA is beyond elite, and his 0.96 WHIP was outstanding. He only had an 18.1% K-BB which is ok, but the wins and ratios offset the lack of strikeouts and still made him an excellent pick in the third round.
After a 48-homer season over 161 games in 2021, Perez took a step back by playing only 114 games. Perez still hit 23 home runs but only scored 48 runs while hitting .254. 2022’s stat line was in line with Perez’s usual production and is what we should expect more of going forward. Perez was still a good fantasy catcher but should have been drafted a few rounds later.
After a 30/30 season in 2021, Mullins put together another quality fantasy season in 2022. Mullins’s power regressed some, as expected, with 16 home runs, and his batting average dropped from .291 to .258. However, Mullins did steal bags for a second straight season, as he stole 34 bases, which is extremely valuable. Another quality season from Mullins.
For the second straight season, Alvarez was an offensive juggernaut. He set career highs in home runs with 37 and batting average with .306. Alvarez also improved his plate discipline with a 13.9% walk rate and a strikeout rate of 18.9%. Alvarez is an elite hitter, and although he won’t steal you many bases, he is an elite early-round fantasy pick.
Everyone said there was no way Riley could hit over .300 again; well, they were right, but he still hit a very respectable .273. He did this by hitting a career-high 38 home runs and driving over 90 runs. Riley has proved in back-to-back seasons that he is an outstanding offensive talent and should not slow down soon.
After starting the season a little late due to an injury, Wheeler threw 153 innings and did not disappoint. He still collected 12 wins with a 2.82 ERA and 3.06 xFIP. He again managed an outstanding 21.3% K-BB while limiting baserunners with a 1.04 WHIP. He made 26 starts which was lower than his 29+ over his previous three seasons. Even with the injury, Wheeler was perfect for fantasy managers.
The 2022 season was disappointing for Story. It was his first year in Boston, and he only played in 94 games due to injuries. He hit 16 home runs to go with 13 stolen bases and only hit .238. It was a disappointing season for Story managers, but there was some optimism as he had a barrel rate of 11.3% and maxEV of 113.4 mph. Too bad we won’t see if the optimism will translate in 2023.
33. Whit Merrifield (2B, OF – TOR)
When fantasy managers draft Merrifield, they hope for elite steals and an excellent batting average. Well, we didn’t see that in 2022. Between the Royals and the Jays, Merrifield only stole 16 bases while hitting .250. Sure, he platooned a lot once he joined the Rays, but the production wasn’t there, regardless.
All Big Meat Pete did in 2022 was improve on his fantastic 2021. Alonso hit 40 home runs while driving in 131 and hit .271. More importantly, Alonso improved his strikeout rate to a career-best 18.7%. Alonso’s plate discipline has improved each season while the power and batting average continue to thrive. Each year he makes fantasy managers reap the rewards of his improvements.
Xander had a good 2022 season, but it was a bit disappointing based on his draft price. Xander only hit 15 home runs, down from 2023 in 2021 and 33 in 2019. He still hit over .300 with eight steals, which is nice, but that power is needed at this point in the draft. Bogaerts is consistent enough in the batting average department and helps plenty in the county stats, and he needs that power to rebound.
36. Teoscar Hernandez (OF – SEA)
Teoscar put together another nice fantasy season, but it may have been disappointing for some. He still hit 25 home runs but only stole six bases and hit .267. Those numbers are all down from 2021, where he hit 32 home runs while stealing 12 bases and hitting .296. However, Teoscar still had great quality contact metrics, including a 15% barrel rate and 52.7% hard-hit rate, so better things may be ahead for Teoscar.
Only two pitchers were drafted in Round 3, and they paid off as they were fantasy aces. Alvarez, Riley, and Alonso brought a ton of power to Round 3 and did not disappoint those who drafted them. On the other hand, there were rough picks in Marte, Bogaerts, Merrifield, and Perez. It was a real boom or bust round as we saw a few difference-maker picks for the good and bad.
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