Randy Johnson, 2009.
Why are we talking about the Big Unit, you may ask? Well, he’s the last pitcher to record his 300th win, as Johnson achieved the milestone as a 45-year-old against the Washington Nationals, as he became the 25th pitcher to have 300 wins in his career.
Since then, nothing.
The active players with the most wins are Justin Verlander (244), Max Scherzer (201), Clayton Kershaw (197), Adam Wainwright (195), and Johnny Cueto (143). None of them are going to reach the milestone, and truthfully, it’s hard to find anyone who may. Gerrit Cole has 130, but he’s already 32 years old.
Pitchers are used differently today, and the fact is that teams realize that wins are luck-driven and don’t mean anything at the end of the day – pitcher wins, that is.
Randy Johnson, 2009.
Why are we talking about the Big Unit, you may ask? Well, he’s the last pitcher to record his 300th win, as Johnson achieved the milestone as a 45-year-old against the Washington Nationals, as he became the 25th pitcher to have 300 wins in his career.
Since then, nothing.
The active players with the most wins are Justin Verlander (244), Max Scherzer (201), Clayton Kershaw (197), Adam Wainwright (195), and Johnny Cueto (143). None of them are going to reach the milestone, and truthfully, it’s hard to find anyone who may. Gerrit Cole has 130, but he’s already 32 years old.
Pitchers are used differently today, and the fact is that teams realize that wins are luck-driven and don’t mean anything at the end of the day – pitcher wins, that is.
And the same thought has been true in fantasy, as the hardest category to draft or target in your draft is pitcher wins due to the unpredictability around them. Sure, a pitcher on a winning team can increase the odds for them, but they are still luck-driven.
Quality Starts League Strategy & Advice (Fantasy Baseball)
More and more leagues are shifting to quality start leagues. But the question is, is the change worth making?
What is a Quality Start
Let’s boil it down first, shall we? A quality start is a start when a pitcher goes at least six innings and allows three runs or fewer in the start. Now, I have issues with that measurement, but it’s easy to have qualms over three earned runs in six innings while ignoring the many quality starts that feature better overall lines.
Why the Switch?
The switch helps encapsulate a pitcher’s actual performance and mitigates the luck factor a little bit. It still doesn’t wipe it away completely, as it’s still largely dependent on batted-ball luck and the defense behind a pitcher. But it is a better category to use than wins if you want something that is a little more skill-based and less luck driven.
What’s the Problem with it?
Well, the quality start is going down. As we mentioned above – starting pitchers are used differently, which makes it hard to count on quality starts since pitchers aren’t pitching six innings as often anymore. Let’s look at a year-by-year range for quality starts per season.
- 2015: 2,432 (50 QS%)
- 2016: 2,262 (47 QS%)
- 2017: 2,121 (44 QS%)
- 2018: 1,996 (41 QS%)
- 2019: 1,794 (37 QS%)
- 2020*: 520 (29 QS%)
- 2021**: 1,584 (33 QS%)
- 2022: 1,776 (37 QS%)
* shortened season ** fallout from shortened season
The number of quality starts has gone down each and every year, and last year, we saw numbers closer to the 2019 season. With the first year without an interruption in three seasons, I expect we will see the numbers go down slightly, around 35 QS%.
It makes it hard to count on quality starts from your pitchers, but it’s still a better alternative than wins.
Who to Target
Treat it like a points league, as you want pitchers who can go deeper into games. I tend to push pitchers up like Framber Valdez, Miles Mikolas, and Marcus Stroman, who may lack the strikeout upside that you want but can work deeper into games.
Strikeouts are still important, but it’s easier to stream and balance those as the year goes on than it is quality starts.
Meanwhile, younger pitchers who are on innings watch have less value, as the number of times they’ll go six innings is far less than those who have already hit the 160- to 180-inning mark.
Are Quality Starts Predictive?
Kind of, but not really. They are more predictive than wins, though. Not only can you do an audit of the game logs for pitchers, but you can look at their numbers the third time through the order. More times than not, when a pitcher qualifies for a quality start, they will be facing the top of the order for the third time. Certain pitchers – like Jake Odorizzi a few years ago – weren’t allowed to pitch through the lineup for the third time, which capped his value when it came to quality starts.
Here are the players who had the best xFIP the third time through the lineup in a minimum of 20 innings.
Is there a Better Alternative?
If I have to pick between wins and quality starts, I’m still using quality starts if it’s a more competitive league. But if I got to implement my own setting, I would go with innings instead, as I think it elevates the true value of arms even more than wins or quality starts can.
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.
