The Lions and Packers will put a bow on the regular season. They played a low-scoring contest earlier this year, but the game’s total suggests there will be more fireworks in the rematch. The Packers are favored at home and are the more well-represented club in this piece. Still, the Lions have a few intriguing options.
Game: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Spread: GB -4.5 Points
Over/Under: 49.0 Points
Lions Analysis: The path of least resistance for the Lions is on the ground. According to Football Outsiders, the Packers are seventh in pass defense DVOA and 27th in rush defense DVOA since Week 11. And per numberFire, teams have attempted 115 passes and 98 rushes by non-quarterbacks against them in neutral game scripts during that stretch.
As a result, Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift are inviting picks. Williams is the preferred runner for Detroit. He's handled 60 rushes compared to 26 for Swift in neutral game scripts since Week 11. Williams is also a wrecking ball in scoring territory, rushing 13 times for six touchdowns inside the five-yard line since Week 11.
Swift is an explosive big-play threat and superior receiver. The third-year running back averages 5.6 yards per carry and 8.0 yards per reception. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), he ran 52 routes versus 21 for Justin Jackson and 18 for Williams in Detroit's previous three games. Thus, Swift is the best bet to be out there if the Lions trail and have to play catch-up. Finally, the matchup is stellar for Williams and Swift. According to The 33rd Team and data from Sports Info Solutions, running backs have averaged 99.7 rushing yards per game, 4.7 yards per carry, 3.3 receptions per game, 25.8 receiving yards per game and scored seven touchdowns against the Packers since Week 11.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is Detroit's highest-ceiling player. He'll put the finishing touches on a sensational sophomore campaign this week, and he's not slowing down in the backstretch. On Jared Goff's 252 passes since Week 11, he's had a 26.6% Target Share, 51 receptions, 594 receiving yards, 456 Air Yards and three touchdown receptions.
Unfortunately, Goff is significantly worse on the road than at home. Additionally, the Packers are tough for slot wideouts, allowing the 11th-fewest DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to them since Week 11. So, the Sun God isn't a must-use option.
Kalif Raymond is stuck in a logjam behind ARSB. Still, he gets the ball when he's on the field. Per PFF, he's been targeted 10 times on 38 routes in the past three weeks, amassing nine receptions for 149 receiving yards. Raymond also had a 10.9-yard average depth of target (aDOT) during that stretch, and there's potential to barbecue the Packers deep. Per numberFire, Green Bay's allowed 11 completions on 20 attempts (55%) that traveled at least 20 Air Yards for 444 yards. Raymond's modest role in the offense provides him a low floor, but his usage when on the field makes him a nifty value pick.
Packers Analysis: First, let's take a top-down view of the Packers. Since Week 10, they've attempted 106 passes and 107 rushes by non-quarterbacks (56 for 262 yards by Aaron Jones and 48 for 201 by AJ Dillon) in neutral game scripts. When leading by at least eight points during that span, they attempted 33 passes and 40 rushes by non-quarterbacks. They want to run when they can.
Fortunately, Detroit's run defense is lousy. They're 20th in rush defense DVOA since Week 11. However, they haven't been a cupcake matchup for running backs. They've allowed 83.1 rushing yards per game, 4.5 yards per carry, 2.1 receptions per game, 17.9 receiving yards per game and four touchdowns (all rushing) to running backs since Week 11. So, they're not impenetrable, but they're also not a cupcake.
Jones and Dillon are good picks, though. First, according to Football Outsiders, the Packers are second in Adjusted-Line Yards (4.90). Second, the Packers are favored. And, of course, the Packers want to run, as was previously established.
Dillon is the best bet of the duo to score on the ground, but Jones is the most likely to score fantasy points in the passing attack. Dillon has toted the rock five times compared to only once for Jones inside the five-yard line since Week 15. Meanwhile, Jones was targeted 10 times on 40 routes since Week 15, hauling in eight receptions for 47 yards and a touchdown versus five receptions for 47 scoreless yards on six targets for Dillon. Gamers shouldn't rule out using the running backs together, especially if they're bullish on Green Bay squashing Detroit.
While the Packers have chosen to lean on their running game when they could, Detroit's opponents have attempted 93 rushes by non-quarterbacks and 135 passes in neutral game scripts since Week 11. So will the Packers let the reigning back-to-back MVP, Aaron Rodgers, chuck it more often this week? Maybe.
The Lions are beatable through the air, ranking 21st in pass defense DVOA since Week 11. Thus, Rodgers is a stellar pick. Green Bay's wideouts are also exciting selections. Perimeter wide receivers have scored the fifth-most DK and FD points per game, and slot wideouts have scored the third-most DK and FD points per game against the Lions since Week 11.
Christian Watson is unquestionably the most exciting and highest-ceiling pick from Green Bay's receiving corps. Since Week 10, he's had a 21.2% Target Share, 24 receptions, 341 receiving yards, 634 Air Yards and six receiving touchdowns on Rodgers' 198 passes. Watson also rushed for 49 yards and a touchdown.
As Green Bay's top wideout, he's treated to a cushy matchup this week. According to Football Outsiders, No. 1 wideouts have shredded the Lions for the most receiving yards per game (90.2). As a result, Watson's the best pick among Packers' receivers.
Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs are stellar picks in the cushy matchup against Detroit's leaky secondary. Since Doubs returned in Week 15, he's earned 12 targets on 47 routes, good for a 25.5% target per route run rate. Since returning from an injury, the rookie has had 11 receptions for 111 receiving yards.
Lazard has run the most routes (96) for the Packers in their previous three games and had a 20.7% Target Share, 19.8% target per route run rate, 11 receptions, 127 receiving yards, 233 Air Yards and zero touchdowns. The veteran wideout is a mainstay on the field for Green Bay and moves around the alignment, playing wide and in the slot. Lazard doesn't match Watson's big-play potential. Yet, Lazard is a rock-solid selection.
Final Thoughts: Rodgers, Watson and Dillon are my favorite Captains/MVPs. Finally, I prefer to build unbalanced lineups which have more Packers than Lions.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
