The best part of BOLD predictions is that you’re supposed to be wrong. If I just told you that I thought Jose Ramirez would finish in the Top 10 at the end of the year, that’s a regular-sized font prediction. And if I said, “Guys, I think Corbin Burnes will be a Top 50 pitcher,” that’s the type of forecast I might as well write in invisible ink.

So these are five of the BOLDEST predictions I’ve got while dabbling in the Pool of Absurdity to boot.

At the end of the day, I predict that baseball will return in full on Thursday, and that is the only one that really matters.

• Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart (2023)
• Fantasy Baseball In-Season Management Tips & Advice (2023)
• The Watchlist: Vaughn Grissom, Jovani Moran & Endy Rodriguez (2023 Fantasy Baseball)

5 Bold (and Absurd!) 2023 Fantasy Baseball Predictions

1. Aaron Judge will finish outside the Top 20 overall.

Figured I’d start off strong and establish a theme here. And that theme is “No one is safe” when it comes to predictions.

This one is difficult to make without knowing which baseball MLB will decide to use and when they’ll decide to use it. (We could have fixed this while we were shaving 25 whole minutes off games, but why would we want a standard ball?) Sure, Judge could hit another 62 homers, destroy the league, and end up the overall No. 1 player in fantasy.

I don’t see it, though. Coming off a monster free-agent year and being a guy with a history of dealing with nagging injuries screams “Regression” in LED lighting, the kind they put in car headlights that blind everyone in their path. I have no shares of him across my rosters because I refused to pay Round 1 prices for him because of this concern/prediction.

Don’t get me wrong – he is an outstanding baseball player with all the talent in the world. I just don’t see a repeat performance in 2023.

2. Byron Buxton will play over 100 games.

I can hear you rolling your eyes and suggesting that this prediction is somehow not bold. To that, I invite you to look at Byron Buxton’s career games played before completing that eye roll.

Heading into his ninth year in the league, Buxton has shown as much potential as he has shown a complete inability to stay on the field. He is now 29 years old, and manager Rocco Baldelli has told reporters that he plans to use the OF as a DH “a vast majority of the time” to begin the season. In some ways, this is a baseball travesty, as his defense is part of what makes him such an amazing player, but no one can blame the Twins for wanting to reduce his risk.

Minnesota also finished dead last in stolen base attempts last season, and I will be surprised if they turn Buxton loose on the basepaths too often as part of their “health preservation” plan. He has a 92nd-percentile sprint speed, though, so he may take off anyway.

In any case, I predict Buxton will play in 100+ games this season. My fear is only how much of his talent they will squander just to keep him in the batter’s box.

3. Willy Adames will hit 40 HR, score 100 runs, and have 100 RBI.

Now we’re talking boldly. According to Stathead, in the history of baseball, there have been eight instances of a shortstop pulling off this stat line. And sure, those eight occurrences were by only two players. And no, I’m not comparing Willy Adames to Alex Rodriguez or Ernie Banks in any other manner.

Adames’s projections say those numbers should be more like 30/80/80, but I think they are underestimating both his power and the Brewers’ lineup. Milwaukee often bats him second in the lineup, so those counting stats rely a bit on Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang hitting the ground running for getting on base at the bottom of the order. The 100 runs feel easily achievable if he continues reducing his K% and gets on base in front of Rowdy Tellez, William Contreras, and Jesse Winker. But I think there are 40 homers lurking for him in an extremely friendly hitter’s park. In the Year of the Shortstop, he is the one with the best boom-boom ability, and this is the year he goes off with it.

4. The Miami Marlins’ rotation will be Top 3 in baseball.

I thought about writing that in ALL CAPS to really hammer home the boldness of this prediction. However, when I study that rotation and play the “If everyone stays healthy” game in my head, I can see this happening. Last year’s Cy Young Winner, Sandy Alcantara provides a hell of an SP1. Analyst darlings Jesus Luzardo and Edward Cabrera are set up to take a major step forward this season. Johnny Cueto should be supplanted by Braxton Garrett or Eury Perez at some point in the season unless he finds an age-37 renaissance.

This leaves us with Trevor Rogers.

Under the multiple universe theory, Rogers never fell off in 2022 and just built on his stellar 2021 campaign to provide a coin flip for Cy Young between him and Alcantara at the end of the year. He continued to be a strikeout machine, and his changeup didn’t switch from knee-buckling finisher to meatball-level awful.

If he returns to that form, he is a league-winner, and the Miami rotation becomes highly coveted in 2024 fantasy baseball drafts. If not? Well, then, these were never supposed to be correct, right?

5. Jacob deGrom will start at least 25 games.

I have zero shares of Jacob deGrom and will never draft him again in any fantasy league I am in. That is just a personal preference and probably more in line with how jilted lovers feel after breaking up with the same person for the sixth time than any sort of deep analysis. As @IsItTheWelsh would tell you, I have been quite the Negative Nancy about deGrom’s value in fantasy baseball.

But no more, my friends. Above all things, I am a baseball fan, and I want good things to happen in baseball. Jacob deGrom is the best there is, and while my therapist has forbidden me from re-engaging in a relationship with him myself, I predict 25 starts and a Cy Young for the 34-year-old Ranger.

Tis the season for bold predictions. If you have any, put them on Twitter and tag @FantasyProsMLB. Make sure you subscribe to the LeadingOff Podcast, which live streams every day at 12:30 p.m. EST, and join our Discord to participate in our HR Call competition.

As Sarah Langs, one of the best people (in general and to follow on Twitter), always says, “Baseball is the best.”

It truly is. And that’s definitely not a bold prediction.

Good luck, everyone!

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Kelly Kirby is a featured writer and the lead copyeditor at FantasyPros. You can check out her archive here and follow her on Twitter at @thewonkypenguin.