Fantasy Baseball Regression Watch: 10 Players to Hold, Sell or Drop (2026)

April and May are great for overreacting in fantasy baseball. One bad week, and your group chat is demanding a player be launched into the sun. But before you rage-drop someone hitting .198, it’s worth checking whether the underlying numbers suggest better days ahead. Our Featured Pros experts dive into the fantasy baseball regression candidates they’re holding onto versus the ones they’re finally ready to cut bait on.

Fantasy Baseball Regression Watch: Hold or Drop?

What player are you holding because underlying stats suggest a rebound is coming?

Pete Alonso (1B – BAL)

“Pete Alonso is off to a poor start in Baltimore, but I will hold him. His hard-hit percentage continues to hold in the 94th percentile with a barrel percentage indicative of better luck to come. While the batting average may not be pretty at the end of the year, I see his lifetime average of .251 as a better benchmark than the current, catastrophic .225 for 2026. As the summer heats up, expect him to return to the mid-30s HR form we are used to.”
– Jesse Severe (Fantasy Hockey Life)

Cam Smith (OF – HOU)

“I am trying very hard to remain optimistic about Cam Smith, and I hope the Houston Astros are, too. Smith is hitting just .199 with a .605 OPS. But he has not been nearly as bad as those numbers suggest. Smith’s expected slugging percentage is 114 points higher than his actual slugging percentage. That is the eighth-highest gap among 266 qualified hitters. Smith’s expected batting average is also 43 points higher than his actual mark. He ranks 50th among qualifiers in barrels per batted ball event and 61st in barrels per plate appearance. Smith is currently outside the top 150 hitters in 5 x 5 value, but with some positive regression, he could be a top-100 fantasy hitter going forward.”
– Mick Ciallela (Fantrax)

Jesus Luzardo (SP – PHI)

“I love swing and miss pitchers and if they’re left-handed… faghettabout it. Jesus Luzardo was a draft day target of mine, making his 5.07 ERA and 1.33 WHIP a baffling pair of numbers, especially when managers troll his stat sheet and see 61 strikeouts in 49.2 innings pitched, a career best 48.9% groundball percentage, and a BB/9 of 2.36, second best of his career. Luzardo’s Left On-Base percentage (62.9%) as well as his HR/FB% (15.2%) are career worsts, while his K/9 is the best of his career, and the remainder of his metrics, standard and advanced, are comparable or better than his career norms. The ERA and WHIP are disturbing, but I’m buying that it’s a bad blip due for a sparkling reversal. Hold on tight or buy him low. Either way, Luzardo is a guy you want on the roster come Fantasy playoff time. Don’t let those ratios shake you. He’s legit, and he will show it soon.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)

Bo Bichette (3B, SS – NYM)

“Bo Bichette is one of the biggest underachievers in terms of batting average compared to expected batting average. His xBA is 61 points better than his average, and his plate discipline isn’t any worse than we’re used to. His walk rate is a career high, although still below league average at 7.2%. The Mets have been disappointing thus far, but I expect them to be much better, and Bichette should have a big role in their turnaround.”
– Chase Davis (FantasyPros)

Taylor Ward (OF – BAL)

“Taylor Ward only has two HRs this season, far off from the 36 he hit in 2025. The good news for Ward is that he is hitting leadoff for an offense that should only get better. The runs category has been saving Ward this season, as he is tied in 26th place with Ohtani. Ward definitely has the tools and the lineup to finish with a 25+ HR season and 100+ Runs, both of which are good enough to make him a league winner.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)

What player are you looking to trade and/or drop because the underlying stats suggest his current performance will remain poor?

Willy Adames (SS – SF)

“I love Willy Adames, but this is not his year. His power and walk rate have both dried up, and the Oracle Park outfield is not getting any easier. Even Adames’s normal sterling defense is slumping – he has a negative value over replacement for the first time since 2021. With a thumb injury now added to Adames’s woes, I am not trying to buy low on a quick rebound.”
– Jesse Severe (Fantasy Hockey Life)

Manny Machado (3B – SD)

“While everybody is freaking out about Fernando Tatis Jr., his teammate Manny Machado’s poor performance has flown under the radar. Machado has delivered a modest amount in the power categories with six HR and 20 RBI, but a .180 average is unacceptable. Unfortunately, even if he positively regresses to his expected level according to Statcast, he’ll be hitting .230, and his xSLG is 130 points below last year and 122 points below his career mark. While he’s only 33 years old, a slight reduction in Bat Speed and Avg EV might indicate that he isn’t an elite slugger anymore. This might be the time to move on from him based on name value before frustration with him builds further in the fantasy community.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)

Matt Chapman (3B – SF)

“Matt Chapman has over 200 plate appearances this season with one home run and zero stolen bases. That seems like an impossible feat for a Major League hitter. And it is not like he has been unlucky. Chapman ranks in the bottom sixth percentile in expected batting average and expected slugging percentage. His ISO and average exit velocity are both lower than those of teammate Luis Arraez. Chapman now bats sixth or seventh in a San Francisco lineup that has scored the fewest runs in baseball. His defense likely keeps him in the lineup, but the Giants could theoretically turn to Casey Schmitt and/or Rafael Devers to play third base if they decide to give Chapman an extended break. I think he will bounce back to some degree, but I would not expect Matt Chapman to produce as he has in recent years.”
– Mick Ciallela (Fantrax)

Aaron Nola (SP – PHI)

“Aaron Nola is someone I’m willing to part ways with. He’s struggled mostly since 2023, but this year his walk rate has risen to an eight-year high (9.0%), matching his lowest strikeout rate since his rookie season at 23%. His 4.85 xERA isn’t much better than his 5.91 ERA, and his groundball rate has lowered each of the last three seasons. He’s hard to trust in any matchup.”
– Chase Davis (FantasyPros)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B – TOR)

“Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not the power hitter you think he is. Take away a 48 HR season in 2021, and Vlad has been nothing short of a 1B with not enough power, as he has only reached 30 HRs two other times in his career. So far in 2026, Vlad only has 3 HRs, and at this point, 30+ HRs seems nearly impossible. Trade away Vlad while he still has big-name value; you cannot win your Fantasy Baseball league with a 1B option that hits less than 30 HRs.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)

The Ketel Marte Debate

Occasionally, our Featured Pros disagree on which side of the question a player belongs. In that case, we present both arguments to let you decide.

Hold

“Ketel Marte hasn’t necessarily been bad this season, but he’s underwhelmed with a .222 batting average entering Tuesday night and just five home runs and 17 RBI. His plate discipline has declined, as evidenced by a 0.42 BB/K that is his lowest since 2020. This can be easily attributed to a Chase rate that is 10 points higher than last year, leading to fewer walks and more strikeouts. Not only can Marte get back to his previously patient ways, his .285 xBA and extremely low .243 BABIP (a career low) suggest much better luck is coming.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)

Don’t Hold

“I’ve never been a Ketel Marte “guy,” but I see where someone could be. A middle infielder with above-average and, in some seasons, elite batting averages along with 25+ home run pop. It’s easy to fall for a player wrapped in that outfit. For me, his story reads more like a player who has never been a meaningful stolen base producer, and he’s had as many, if not more, bad seasons than special ones. 2026 is looking more like the bad ones than the few special ones. His BB% is one of his career’s lowest at 7%, his ISO is an abysmal .146, in line with seasons that his power was non-existent, as is his OBP (.276) and SLG (.368). His defenders will argue that Marte’s .243 BABIP means the previous ones have been bad luck and that better weeks are ahead. However, when you aren’t walking, you aren’t making contact, and the rare times you do, you aren’t hitting for power, then it’s difficult to put the ball in play enough to get lucky. Marte’s ’26 is looking too much like 2018, 2020,2021 and 2022 rather than his great three-run in 2023-2025, and in those years, he finished the season on the waiver wire rather than leading championship-winning Fantasy teams. It would take cajones to release Marte, so I would be doing everything I could to sell him for any price I could get. There is a difference between buying low and buying bad. Marte has looked bad, and I fully expect him to continue to be so.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)