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Dynasty Rookie Draft: Analyzing ADP Data (2023 Fantasy Football)

Dynasty Rookie Draft: Analyzing ADP Data (2023 Fantasy Football)
cameraDynasty Rookie Draft: Analyzing ADP Data (2023 Fantasy Football)

With rookie season in full force, it’s time to take a look at the ADP post-combine and see what hasn’t caught up with the rankings as of yet. Between now and the draft, we can expect plenty of movement, particularly for those who failed to live up to expectations at the Combine. This ADP is based on Sleeper’s Superflex mock drafts.

Dynasty Rookie Draft Kit

Analyzing Rookie ADP Data

Bijan Robinson RB1 1.01

The unquestioned 1.01 of rookie drafts and a likely first-round pick in redraft, and best ball if he gets the right landing spot.

Bryce Young QB1 1.02

There were many sighs of relief when Bryce Young weighed in at over 200lbs and measured over 5ft-10, but with Young declining to participate in the drills, many believe it slightly harmed his draft stock. Among FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, Bryce Young is the QB1, but in mock drafts since the Combine we’re starting to see Anthony Richardson sneak ahead of him, if that should happen in the NFL Draft, it’s likely Young might fall a couple of spots closer to the 1.04.

C.J. Stroud QB 1.03

It feels likely that C.J. Stroud might leap ahead of Bryce Young’s ADP in the coming weeks after he put on an impressive show at the Combine and seems to be the likely choice for the QB1 in the draft. Stroud has some untapped potential with his legs that we might get more of a look at in the NFL, and ultimately, Stroud is the safest bet in this quarterback class.

Jahmyr Gibbs RB2 1.04

In any other rookie class without the incredible talent of Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs would be picking up a lot of hype. At the Combine, Gibbs ran a 4.36 40-yard dash, displaying the speed he often showed in games. In the right landing spot, Gibbs can be a near-every-down running back, with the only downside being his weight at 199 lbs is a little lighter than ideal, but for reference, Austin Ekeler is 199 lbs and has managed fine. Gibbs receiving upside is exactly what we want in fantasy football.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 1.05

Jaxon Smith-Njigba solidified his position as WR1 after running the 20-yard shuttle in 3.93 seconds and the 3-cone drill in 6.57 seconds, both the fastest times among all players who participated in those drills at this year’s Combine. And that 20-yard shuttle time was the fourth-best by a receiver since 2007. Smith-Njigba can be a PPR legend for fantasy football.

Anthony Richardson QB3 1.06

A freakishly good Combine has pushed the hype train on Anthony Richardson into an even higher gear, and it’s unlikely to slow down between now and the draft. Don’t be surprised if Richardson creeps up to QB2 or possibly even QB1 because of his dual-threat ability.

Jordan Addison WR2 1.07

This draft class might not have as much top-tier wide receiver talent as some in recent memory, but it’s very possible that Jordan Addison is going to be very good in the NFL. Addison boasts fantastic route-running ability and separates from defenders with ease. Addison’s hold on the WR2 slot likely depends on draft capital, but right now, it lines up exactly with FantasyPros ECR.

Will Levis QB4 1.08

If Will Levis can solve some of his decision-making issues in the same way Deshaun Watson and Josh Allen did after arriving in the NFL, then Levis might look like a rookie draft bargain in a few years’ time. Levis is clearly a tier behind the other quarterbacks right now, and in single QB formats, there will likely be a bigger gulf between them and him.

Quentin Johnston WR3 1.09

Many mock drafts still see Quentin Johnston being the first wide receiver taken in April’s draft, which might be enough to push him a couple of spots higher in ADP. Johnston is an electric wide receiver but needs to improve at contested catches, this obvious flaw, which even he attests to, might subdue him on some draft boards.

Zach Charbonnet RB3 1.10

As we get to the end of the first round, there feels like a tier break in talent, and Zach Charbonnet is ranked anywhere between seventh and 23rd in the ECR. Charbonnet is a solid back who will likely get steady draft capital, but he lacks the elite pass-catching and route-running upside of Robinson and Gibbs, so without a good landing spot, he might fall lower than this.

Michael Mayer TE1 1.11

The first tight end in ADP is Michael Mayer, who excels in all areas of play, working well as both a blocker and a pass-catcher. Mayer’s advantage over the other tight ends in this class is that he won’t need to leave the field, no matter what type of play it is. In tight end premium formats, Mayer makes a lot of sense at the back end of round one.

Kayshon Boutte WR4 1.12

We can expect Kayshon Boutte’s ADP to drop significantly between now and the draft. Boutte had off-the-field issues during his time at LSU and performed poorly at the Combine. Players with red flags can’t afford to test poorly if they want to be drafted highly, as teams won’t take the risk on players who aren’t ticking enough boxes. Unless something changes dramatically, Boutte could be a third-round pick in rookie drafts. The ECR has Boutte ranked between 11th and 47th.

Josh Downs WR5 2.01

After a solid Combine where other receivers didn’t impress, Josh Downs is likely to climb into the back end of the first round. Downs possesses elite route running ability, and while his smaller frame might lead to him becoming primarily a slot receiver, in fantasy football, we know how valuable that can be. Downs’s ADP of WR5 is the same as where he lands in ECR.

Devon Achane RB4 2.02

Pre-Combine Devon Achane talked up his chances of breaking John Ross’ 4.22 40-yard dash record, and while he didn’t manage that, the 4.32 he did record confirmed what we all knew, that he is lightning fast. With the speed he possesses and his ability to break away long runs, Achane could have fantasy relevance immediately.

Jalin Hyatt WR6 2.03

It might be harsh to call Jalin Hyatt a one-trick pony, but the vast majority of his work in college came on down-field deep passes. Hyatt averaged an outrageous 18.9 yards per catch, and that has many people wondering if he can develop into a more developed receiver in the NFL. In ECR, Hyatt is the WR7, with rankings having him as high as 6th overall and as low as 41st. Pending landing spot, Hyatt will remain a prospect people will be skeptical about.

Zach Evans RB5 2.04

People are split on Zach Evans, who is a powerful runner but lacks receiving upside, with only 30 receptions across his three years in college. Evans will likely be the type of running back who the NFL loves, but for fantasy, if he lands in the wrong place with a crowded backfield, his path to relevance will be difficult.

Tank Bigsby RB6 2.05

Tank by name and Tank by nature, Bigsby is ranked as the RB7 in ECR, slightly behind his ADP, with some rankings having him as low as 36th. Bigsby likely stays in the middle tier of round two unless he gets a particularly good landing spot.

Sean Tucker RB7 2.06

The RB8 in ECR, Sean Tucker, like many prospects in this range, does not possess a complete skill set but did show improvement in the receiving game in his last year at college, with 37 catches for 262 yards. ECR has Tucker no higher than 18th in the rankings, which shows where the ceiling is perceived for Tucker.

Zay Flowers WR7 2.07

The biggest deviation between ADP and rankings is Zay Flowers, who is rising up mock drafts and big boards, now being mocked as high as the early teens thanks to a solid Combine. ECR has Flowers as the 8th-best prospect and the WR4. It feels like only a matter of time before the ADP climbs much closer to the first round.

Kendre Miller RB8 2.08

Miller is currently the RB6 in ECR and is a divisive prospect who lacked receiving work in college, and not testing at the Combine hasn’t helped his draft stock. ADP is more skeptical of Miller’s outlook, but with a good landing spot, it could change quickly.

Cedric Tillman WR8 2.09

It was in Tillman’s fourth season in college when he finally put it all together, at a point where he was bigger and stronger than most opposing defenders. Currently, Tillman is the WR8 in ECR as well as ADP, but Marvin Mims is starting to pick up steam and will likely leapfrog him in the coming weeks.

Hendon Hooker QB5 2.10

Hendon Hooker likely would have been going earlier in the draft if it wasn’t for a torn ACL. During the NFL Combine, NFL Network’s Daniel Jerimiah repeatedly said he’d heard Hooker would go higher than expected in the draft, if that were to happen, then in Superflex leagues, Hooker’s ADP could climb half a round. In ECR, Hooker is the 42nd prospect, quite some way behind his ADP.

Tyjae Spears RB9 2.11

After lighting up the Senior Bowl, Tyjae Spears did no damage to his draft stock, and hopes remain high for him. Spears is the RB10 in ECR, with the rankings keeping him between 16th and 19th, that narrow range of rankings tells us it’s likely Spears will stay around the back end of round two for a while.

Dalton Kincaid TE2 2.12

During his final season at Utah, Kincaid dropped only two balls on 108 catches, and his draft profile is much more of a pass-catcher than an all round tight end. With the leap to the NFL being a tricky one for tight ends, it makes sense that drafters may be skeptical about the immediate returns of Kincaid, but the ECR has him as the 19th-best prospect, and with the right landing spot, perhaps we see an increase.

2023 NFL Draft Guide: Prospect Rankings & Player Profiles

Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.

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