The 2023 NFL Draft is less than five weeks away. With the NFL Combine in the rearview mirror and the pro day circuit in full swing, several prospects have seen their draft stock rise or fall. However, how have the past few weeks impacted dynasty rookie drafts?
The four-round mock draft in this article is based on 10 teams, non-PPR, with a Superflex spot. Let’s look at how the mock turned out.
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Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Standard, Superflex
- 1.01 – Bijan Robinson (RB – Texas)
- 1.02 – C.J. Stroud (QB – Ohio State)
- 1.03 – Bryce Young (QB – Alabama)
- 1.04 – Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – Alabama)
- 1.05 – Anthony Richardson (QB – Florida)
- 1.06 – Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – Ohio State)
- 1.07 – Will Levis (QB – Kentucky)
- 1.08 – Jordan Addison (WR – USC)
- 1.09 – Quentin Johnston (WR – TCU)
- 1.10 – Zach Charbonnet (RB – UCLA)
Robinson remains the consensus 1.01 pick, even in Superflex leagues. The former Longhorn is already the RB1 in startup dynasty rankings for many analysts. Last year he had 1,900 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns. Furthermore, Robinson was the top running back in college football throughout his three-year career. Meanwhile, Gibbs being the second non-quarterback drafted isn’t a surprise, given the scoring system for this mock draft. The former Alabama running back could be a late first-round NFL Draft pick.
While Robinson remains the top pick, there is a shift at quarterback. Young start the draft season as the consensus QB1 in rookie drafts. Then, Richardson had a historic showing at the NFL Combine. He ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at 244 pounds, pushing him into the QB1 conversation. However, Stroud was the first quarterback picked in this mock draft. His NFL Draft stock has risen after the Carolina Panthers traded for the No. 1 overall pick. Stroud is now the heavy favorite to be drafted first overall on the betting market. Furthermore, many scouts believe the former Ohio State quarterback is the more natural passer in the draft this year.
- 2.01 – Zach Evans (RB – Ole Miss)
- 2.02 – Zay Flowers (WR – Boston College)
- 2.03 – Kendre Miller (RB – TCU)
- 2.04 – Jalin Hyatt (WR – Tennessee)
- 2.05 – Tank Bigsby (RB – Auburn)
- 2.06 – Hendon Hooker (QB – Tennessee)
- 2.07 – Darnell Washington (TE – Georgia)
- 2.08 – Sean Tucker (RB – Syracuse)
- 2.09 – Michael Mayer (TE – Notre Dame)
- 2.10 – Josh Downs (WR – North Carolina)
This is where we start to see the scoring system impact the mock draft. Flowers would likely have been a late first-round pick in a PPR mock draft. Similarly, Downs would have been an early second-round pick. Instead, he barely sneaked into the second round and got drafted behind multiple running backs. However, that’s not unexpected, given the scoring system. Yet, the tight ends off the board are surprising.
Mayer was the top tight end prospect during the college football season. Yet, he is the second tight end off the board in this mock draft. Washington had an excellent performance at the NFL Combine. The former Georgia Bulldog had a limited receiving role during his career, totaling only 45 receptions for 774 receiving yards and three touchdowns. However, Washington showed nature hands during the drills at the NFL Combine. Many scouts believe he will now be the first tight end drafted in April.
- 3.01 – Devon Achane (RB – Texas A&M)
- 3.02 – Dalton Kincaid (TE – Utah)
- 3.03 – Marvin Mims (WR – Oklahoma)
- 3.04 – Cedric Tillman (WR – Tennessee)
- 3.05 – Roschon Johnson (RB – Texas)
- 3.06 – Tyjae Spears (RB – Tulane)
- 3.07 – Rashee Rice (WR – SMU)
- 3.08 – Kayshon Boutte (WR – LSU)
- 3.09 – Chase Brown (RB – Illinois)
- 3.10 – DeWayne McBride (RB – UAB)
While Washington and Mayer were second-round picks in this mock draft, Kincaid was right behind them in the early third round. The former Utah star had back-to-back seasons with eight receiving touchdowns to end his college career. Furthermore, Kincaid had 70 receptions for 890 receiving yards last season, finishing top 10 in the PAC-12 in both categories. Unfortunately, a back injury has kept him from participating in the pre-draft process, which has hurt his draft stock.
This year’s draft class has several impressive running backs. However, my favorite mid-round target is Johnson. While Robinson was the superstar of the Longhorns’ offense, Johnson played a critical role for Texas. He started his college career as a quarterback before injuries forced him to running back. Yet, Johnson played well despite learning the position on the fly. The former Longhorn averaged 5.6 yards per rushing attempt in his career. Furthermore, he had 56 receptions for 420 receiving yards and three touchdowns as a part-time player. While Robinson will be a superstar, Johnson will be a fantasy steal in the third round.
- 4.01 – Tanner McKee (QB – Stanford)
- 4.02 – Deuce Vaughn (RB – Kansas State)
- 4.03 – Luke Musgrave (TE – Oregon State)
- 4.04 – Evan Hull (RB – Northwestern)
- 4.05 – Kenny McIntosh (RB – Georgia)
- 4.06 – Xavier Hutchinson (WR – Iowa State)
- 4.07 – Mohamed Ibrahim (RB – Minnesota)
- 4.08 – Stetson Bennett (QB – Georgia)
- 4.09 – Tucker Kraft (TE – South Dakota State)
- 4.10 – A.T. Perry (WR – Wake Forest)
The last round of a rookie draft is my favorite because it’s all about finding the diamond in the rough. This year there is one running back that should be on every fantasy player’s target list. Hull had an impressive performance during the Senior Bowl week. Then, he was outstanding at the NFL Combine. The former Northwestern running back ran a faster 40-yard dash than expected, running a 4.47 time. Furthermore, Hull stood out among all the other running backs at the NFL Combine, taking the ball to the house on every rep of every drill. If you want this year’s late-round steal at running back, draft Hull.
Running backs with elite college production tend to succeed in the NFL, which makes Ibrahim an intriguing fourth-round pick. He ended his college career with over 4,600 rushing yards and 53 touchdowns. Furthermore, the former Golden Gopher had three seasons with over 1,000 rushing yards in his career, including in 2022. Meanwhile, Ibrahim likely would have declared for the 2022 NFL Draft if he didn’t suffer a torn Achilles in the first game of the year. However, he showed no signs of concern last year, totaling 320 rushing attempts for 1,665 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns, all career highs.
The Best of the Rest
Maybe I’m just a big tight end nerd, but LaPorta might be my favorite tight end prospect this year. That doesn’t mean I think he’s the best tight end in the draft class. However, I believe he is vastly undervalued. The former Iowa tight end had 111 receptions for 1,327 receiving yards over the past two years despite playing on a limited offense. Furthermore, LaPorta had the third-fastest 40-yard dash time (4.59) among tight ends at the combine. LaPorta could sneak into the early fourth round of rookie drafts if he lands in an appealing situation.
This year’s wide receiver draft class lacks the superstar upside of the 2020 and 2021 draft classes. However, there are several intriguing late-round prospects. One of them is Wilson. Despite having a quiet college career, the former Stanford wide receiver made an impact during the Senior Bowl week. He had multiple impressive catches, including one for a touchdown during the game. I was a big fan of Romeo Doubs last year, and I feel similar about Wilson this year.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.