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Fantasy Baseball ADP Values to Target (2023)

by Michael Waterloo | @MichaelWaterloo | Featured Writer
Mar 8, 2023
Fantasy Baseball Projections: Hitters to Draft & Avoid (2023)

One of the best discourses every single year leading up to the start of the season is debating where players should be drafted.

With that, there’s always the question, “Well, why draft X here when you can get Y here?” Typically, it’s because X is the better player with a longer track record.

But that’s not always the case.

If there’s one thing I say over and over – and will continue to say until my time as a fantasy writer is done – is that fantasy is all about finding value.

And that’s what we are going to do today.

Typically, you’ll take the X player instead of waiting for the Y, but in every draft, you’re going to have some perceived weakness on your team, which is where finding value in the draft can help.

For this exercise, I’m using The Bat projections to find a player at each position that you can wait on to get a similar projected value for a player at the same position who is going earlier in the draft, based on FantasyPros ADP.

Let’s get to it.

Finding ADP Values (2023 Fantasy Baseball)


Alejandro Kirk (C – TOR): ADP 108.6
Tyler Stephenson (C – CIN): ADP 167

The Bat Projections
Kirk 108.6 489 15 62 60 0 .276
Stephenson 167 495 15 58 59 1 .269

You know that I’m taking this seriously when I suggest passing up on a Blue Jay. I do love Kirk, and I believe in the batted-ball ability. But with Danny Jansen getting his looks and Brandon Belt in town to be the primary DH, we may see some playing time cut down.

Stephenson, meanwhile, is the primary catcher in Cinci and showed fantastic flashes until being dinged up by injuries in 2022.

First Base

Jose Miranda (1B, 3B – MIN): ADP 154.4
Josh Naylor (1B, OF – CLE): ADP 218

The Bat Projections
Miranda 154.4 571 16 63 66 5 .259
Naylor 218 526 18 64 70 4 .263

Miranda is one of my favorite players to draft this year, given his strong second half in 2022. What’s more, the dual eligibility helps his cause, too.

But the more I look at it – and the more I draft – I’m finding myself taking Naylor more and more. He’ll be primarily an outfielder this year, but for 2023, we have the eligibility.

Second Base

Gleyber Torres (2B – NYY): ADP 114
Jorge Polanco (2B – MIN): ADP 151.8

The Bat Projections
Torres 114 573 21 70 68 12 .252
Polanco 151.8 589 23 76 71 8 .257

Like Miranda, the 2B I’ve been ending up with the most is Torres. We aren’t going to get his 2019 season, but he’s still going to be pretty damn good.

But at a discount, Polanco is just kind of sitting there after natural regression from his overperformance in 2021. Finding a balance between 2021 and 2022 is key for Polanco, and it’s what I’m expecting to see this year.

Third Base

Eugenio Suarez (3B – SEA): ADP 147.6
Ryan McMahon (3B – COL): ADP 212

The Bat Projections
Suarez 147.6 605 29 70 79 12 .210
McMahon 212 588 22 76 72 6 .250

Suarez was a forgotten man after his 2021 struggles, but he saw a big career resurgence in Seattle, shockingly after leaving Great American Smallpark. He’s going to give you big power again this year, but won’t others?

That’s the idea behind me taking McMahon, as he’s a guy whose Statcast numbers are outstanding, and I’m banking on them turning into better fantasy results this season than last year.


Wander Franco (SS – TB): ADP 87.2
Nico Hoerner (SS – CHC): ADP 186

The Bat Projections
Franco 87.2 602 13 75 69 10 .286
Hoerner 186 563 10 68 56 18 .281

This one may come back to bite me, as I still believe in the long-term outlook for Franco. Yes, I think he’ll ultimately be a better real-life player than fantasy player, but it’s too early to crown that.

Meanwhile, Hoerner is just a sneaky floor player who you can get 100 picks later after the drop-off at shortstop happens.


Lars Nootbaar (OF – STL): ADP 192
Bryan De La Cruz (OF – MIA): ADP 282.4

The Bat Projections
Nootbaar 192 509 17 63 58 6 .236
De La Cruz 282.4 473 13 52 49 4 .250

This is a fun one because it features two sleepers that everyone loves. I was shocked to see how high Nootbaar’s ADP is now, and it’s kind of in the range that it eliminates any sleeper appeal.

De La Cruz, though, is holding strong at 282 and can offer the same value as Nootbaar based on projections nearly 100 picks later.

Starting Pitcher

Carlos Rodon (SP – NYY): ADP 41.4
Cristian Javier (SP – HOU): ADP 66.2

The Bat Projections
Rodon 41.4 171 214 53 3.24
Javier 66.2 171 210 71 3.74

One of my easier fades this year is Rodon, as I don’t like to draft pitchers on a big contract – especially when they head to a bad ballpark.

Javier, meanwhile, is one of my favorite pitchers to target, and I think there’s a front-end SP2 upside with him. This gap isn’t huge, but it’s two rounds in a standard 12-team league.

Beyond our fantasy baseball content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – which optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball draft season.

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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.

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