In addition to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR), the Zeile Consensus Projections are an essential tool for your draft preparation. The difference between the ECR and Zeile is that Zeile is based on projected stats from several reputable sources. Thus, there’s a bit more meat behind the rankings, though the ECR is built on far more sources.
Comparing the Zeile projections to ADP is a great way to identify targets and flag players who are being over-drafted. Here are some hitters and pitchers that fall into both camps. For the hitters, we limited the scope to those with an ADP or projected rank of less than 150. For the pitchers, we drew the line at 125 since they don’t get drafted as deep.
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Zeile Projections vs. ADP: Who Should You Target and Avoid?
First, here are the hitters that the Zeile projections like more than the average fantasy manager by at least one round, divided into mid-draft targets and late-draft targets:
Mid-Draft Hitters the Projections like better than ADP
| Player | Hitter Projection | ADP | Variance |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B – PIT) | 98 | 121 | +23 |
| Nico Hoerner (SS – CHC) | 88 | 109 | +21 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (1B, DH – BAL) | 79 | 94 | +15 |
| Ryan McMahon (2B, 3B – COL) | 110 | 124 | +14 |
| Tim Anderson (SS – CWS) | 46 | 58 | +12 |
| Nick Castellanos (OF – PHI) | 68 | 80 | +12 |
Anderson is coming off an injury-plagued 2022, and it appears drafters are sleeping on him. Zeile projects him to contribute to every category with a .292 average, 14 HRs, 19 SBs, 57 RBI, and 84 runs. McMahon, Mountcastle, and Castellanos dropped off a bit in 2022 after strong 2021 seasons. The projections expect them to rebound somewhat. Zeile thinks Hayes and Hoerner will put up similar numbers in 2023 compared to 2022, but apparently, fantasy managers don’t think they can steal around 20 bases again.
Late-Draft Hitters the Projections like better than ADP
| Player | Hitter Projection | ADP | Variance |
| Randal Grichuk (OF – COL) | 148 | 179 | +31 |
| Jean Segura (2B – MIA) | 122 | 147 | +25 |
| Ezequiel Tovar (SS – COL) | 133 | 155 | +22 |
| Austin Hays (OF – BAL) | 141 | 162 | +21 |
| Ramon Laureano (OF – OAK) | 128 | 146 | +18 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (OF – ARI) | 129 | 145 | +16 |
| Kolten Wong (2B – SEA) | 136 | 152 | +16 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (OF – MIA) | 149 | 165 | +16 |
| Bryson Stott (2B, SS – PHI) | 150 | 163 | +13 |
This group is primarily for deeper leagues and benches, but the projections feel they have some upside that drafters don’t see. Grichuk, Hays, and Laureano have 20 HR potential. Tovar, Laureano, and Wong could steal 15+ bases. Segura, Tovar, and Guerriel shouldn’t hurt your batting average, and De La Cruz, Stott, and Tovar are young players with upside.
Next are some hitters the Zeile projections think are being drafted too high. We’ve eliminated catchers from this list as projections are typically position agnostic, and thus catchers usually rank lower since they don’t see as many plate appearances. For the record, the catchers with the biggest variances to ADP were Travis d’Arnaud (C – ATL), who may have trouble finding at-bats with Sean Murphy (C – ATL) on the roster, and MJ Melendez (C, OF, DH – KC), whose hitter ADP of 66 seems crazy high.
In addition, we filtered out Bryce Harper (OF, DH – PHI) as neither the projections nor drafters know precisely when he’ll be back on the field. Here are the other hitters who Zeile thinks are being drafted at least a round too early:
Hitters the Projections like less than ADP
| Player | Hitter Projection | ADP | Variance |
| Masataka Yoshida (OF – BOS) | 156 | 107 | -49 |
| Jon Berti (2B, 3B, SS,OF – MIA) | 177 | 141 | -36 |
| Jordan Walker (3B – STL) | 160 | 135 | -25 |
| DJ LeMahieu (1B, 2B, 3B – NYY) | 151 | 128 | -23 |
| Whit Merrifield (2B, OF – TOR) | 117 | 97 | -20 |
| Brandon Drury (1B, 2B, 3B, DH – LAA) | 130 | 112 | -18 |
| Jesse Winker (OF – MIL) | 157 | 139 | -18 |
| Jorge Mateo (SS – BAL) | 159 | 144 | -15 |
| Cody Bellinger (OF – CHC) | 119 | 105 | -14 |
| Eugenio Suarez (3B – SEA) | 99 | 87 | -12 |
| Vaughn Grissom (2B – ATL) | 114 | 102 | -12 |
The projections aren’t as bullish on the rookies/young players (Yoshida, Walker, Grissom) as fantasy managers. This is often the case with players with limited or non-existent major-league experience. Yoshida comes from Japan, and the results from Japanese stars have been mixed. Grissom got a taste last season, but Ozzie Albies (2B – ATL) is back, and he could start in Triple-A. Likewise, Walker is only 20 and probably won’t make the team out of Spring Training despite his hot camp.
Zeile doesn’t see repeat performances from Berti, Drury, or Mateo in 2023. Mateo isn’t likely to see 533 PAs with Gunnar Henderson (3B, SS – BAL) on the team, and the other two are coming off career years. In addition, the projections aren’t expecting bounce-back years from LeMahieu, Merrifield, Winker, or Bellinger, all of whom struggled in 2022. As for Suarez, the power should be there, but Zeile believes the average will drop from .236 last season to around .214 this year.
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