We started off slow the first two weeks, but we’re in the swing of things now! I’m in full-on baseball mode, and I absolutely love the everyday grind of MLB. It’s fun seeing these teams play every day and watching them develop. There have been some shocking sights through the opening month, but everything always comes back to the mean! With that in mind, let’s look at the pitchers for this large Sunday card.
Starting Pitcher Rankings
We started off slow the first two weeks, but we’re in the swing of things now! I’m in full-on baseball mode, and I absolutely love the everyday grind of MLB. It’s fun seeing these teams play every day and watching them develop. There have been some shocking sights through the opening month, but everything always comes back to the mean! With that in mind, let’s look at the pitchers for this large Sunday card.
Starting Pitcher Rankings
Starting Pitcher Strategy
I’m rarely excited to write about four different guys, but all of these pitchers are in fantastic spots. The top two guys are nearly impossible to avoid, and we will pair them with some elite GPP options as well. The top option is the best pitcher over the last decade, and he couldn’t have a better matchup!
Cash Game Recommendations:
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs. OAK
deGrom suffered another injury earlier in the week, but he’s supposed to be ready to go here! Whenever this guy toes the rubber, he’s the best pitcher in baseball. Since 2018, deGrom has a 2.09 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Those look like numbers from an elite closer, and it’s paired with one of the best K rates among starters. Those absurd averages should continue against Oakland, with the A’s ranked 27th in OBP, 28th in wOBA, and 26th in runs scored. Not to mention, deGrom is a -300 favorite.
Sonny Gray (MIN) vs. WAS
Gray has always been a solid pitcher, but he’s off to one of the best starts of his career. Sonny has allowed one run or fewer in all four starts this year, sporting a 0.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He’s also got 25 Ks over his last three starts and can’t be faded against Washington. The Nationals rank 27th in wOBA, 28th in xwOBA, and 25th in runs scored. In addition, Gray’s a -200 favorite.
UPDATE: Gray was scratched, and it looks like Bailey Ober will start. He’s shown some flashes in the past and benefits from this beautiful matchup.
GPP Recommendations:
Hunter Greene (CIN) at PIT
Greene is a volatile pitcher, but he’s got one of the highest ceilings of anyone out there. The young righty has 188 strikeouts through 142.2 innings at this level, leading all starters in velocity as well. That nasty stuff has allowed Greene to generate a 2.10 ERA and 1.07 WHIP across his last 11 starts dating back to last year. That should carry over against Pittsburgh, with the Pirates ranked bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and xwOBA last season. In his two starts against the Pirates last year, Greene provided a 0.68 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 12.8 K.9 rate.
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) vs. DET
G-Rod has been one of the highest touted prospects for a couple of years now, but he’s gotten off to a rough start this season. We’re willing to overlook that because this guy had a 2.49 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 34 percent K rate throughout his minor league career. Getting to face the Tigers is comparable to a minor league club, with Detroit ranked 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. We also don’t mind that G-Rod is a -170 favorite!
Top Lineup Stacks
If you haven’t been stacking against Corbin over the past three years, what have you been doing? This lefty has been terrible since 2020, generating a 5.84 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in that span. He only has a job because Washington is rebuilding, and Minnesota will surely add to his atrocious averages. The Twins two best hitters are righties, and they’ll find their way into the hitter’s section!
Texas Rangers (vs. JP Sears)
This Rangers team is scary right now. They’re averaging nearly eight runs a night over this last week, and they’ve been doing that damage without Corey Seager. That won’t sit well against a guy like Sears, with the southpaw slinging a 4.60 ERA this year. These Oakland arms bring nothing to the table, and there’s no chance they will slow down the hottest team in MLB.
UPDATE: It looks like Kyle Muller might start, but any Oakland pitcher is worth stacking against.
St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Chris Flexen)
The Cardinals have one of the deepest lineups in the NL, and it’ll be tough for Flexen to navigate around them. The Mariners righty has one of the worst K rates over recent years, leading to a 7.79 ERA and 1.73 WHIP this season. The Cards will surely add to those because they’re due for some negative regression behind some lousy luck.
Core Studs
| POS |
PLAYER |
DK SALARY |
FD SALARY |
| OF |
Byron Buxton (MIN) |
$4,900 |
$3,000 |
| 2B/SS |
Marcus Semien (TEX) |
$5,800 |
$3,900 |
| 1B |
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) |
$6,100 |
$3,600 |
| 1B |
Vladimir Guerrero (TOR) |
$5,600 |
$3,900 |
| SS |
Wander Franco (TB) |
$6,200 |
$3,900 |
- Bux has gotten off to a rough start, but he’s my favorite play on this slate. We talked about how dreadful Corbin has been, and Buxton should be in his usual cleanup spot against him. That’s scary when diving into Byron’s splits, totaling a .272 AVG and .905 OPS against lefties since 2021.
- We had Semien in this section on Saturday, and we’re going right back to the well for all the same reasons. This second baseman has been scorching recently, providing a .366 AVG, .659 SLG, and 1.093 OPS over his last 10 games. He also gets the platoon advantage against Sears here and has always slaughtered southpaws throughout his career.
- Goldy has been the best hitter in the NL since the start of last season. In that span, Goldschmidt has a .408 OBP, .568 SLG, and .976 OPS. That’s hard to even fathom, but it should continue against a struggling pitcher like Flexen.
- Not many people are talking about Vlad’s ridiculous start to the year, and it’s hard to understand why. We’re guessing that people just expect this slugger to go nuts, posting a .346 AVG, .429 OBP, and .942OPS. He’s also homered in two of his last three outings and shouldn’t struggle against a pitcher with an 8.79 ERA and 1.88 WHIP.
- The Rays have been the best team in baseball, and Franco is a primary reason why. The youngster has been hitting in the heart of this dominant lineup, generating a .301 AVG, .575 SLG, and .938 OPS. Those are the beastly numbers we saw in the minors, and facing Lance Lynn isn’t as scary as it sounds. Not only does Wander hit from the left side, but Lynn has a 7.59 ERA and 1.83 WHIP.
Value Plays/Punts
| POS |
PLAYER |
DK SALARY |
FD SALARY |
| SS |
Carlos Correa (MIN) |
$4,600 |
$2,900 |
| OF |
Anthony Santander (BAL) |
$4,000 |
$2,800 |
| 1B |
Rowdy Tellez (MIL) |
$4,200 |
$3,600 |
| OF |
Lars Nootbaar (STL) |
$3,900 |
$3,400 |
| 1B |
Jake Lamb (LAA) |
$2,000 |
$2,200 |
- It’s been a disappointing start for Correa, but this guy will get going. The former All-Star has been one of the most consistent shortstops since his call-up, and getting to hit from the right side against Corbin should get him rolling. Over the last three years, Correa has compiled a .401 OBP and .894 OPS against left-handers.
- Santander has also gotten off to a slow start, but hitting in the heart of this O’s lineup makes him an enticing option in this price range. The slugger had 33 dingers in a breakout 2022 season, and he’s got a .444 OBP and 1.044 OPS over his last four fixtures. That’s what we’ve been waiting to see, especially since he had a .548 SLG and .913 OPS against lefties last year.
- Don’t look now, but Rowdy is starting to get hot. This lefty masher has six homers over his last 14 games. He’s also got a .942 OPS against righties this year and has always dominated in the heart of this lineup in those circumstances. Brayan Bello is far from a scary matchup, amassing a 16.88 ERA and 3.38 WHIP.
- Nootbaar has found a nice home at the top of this Cards lineup. That means he’ll be tough to fade since we love St. Louis, flirting with a .400 OBP over the last two years. Most of that damage has come against righties, providing an absurd .565 OBP and 1.027 OPS so far this year.
- This is our BvP play of the day. Lamb is not an everyday player for the Angels, but he should be in the heart of their lineup against Jordan Lyles. In 15 at-bats against Lyles, Lamb has a .467 AVG and 1.134 OPS. He’s also killed right-handers throughout his career and looks like one of the best punt plays on the board.
Hitter Strategy
The first thing we want to do is stack the Twins. We should be able to do whatever we want from there because we can pair them with some of the cheap pitchers mentioned above. Some of the other offenses we want to stack with Minnesota include the Angels, Orioles, Rays, Cardinals, Rangers, and Brewers. There are plenty of good options between those teams, and some value should open up right before all the lineups get released since Sunday slates always tend to have strange lineups.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
