The work week concludes with a massive MLB DFS slate. Gamers have 13 contests to choose players from, and the slate begins at 7:05 pm ET. Thus, there are four suggested starting pitchers, three stacks, three core studs and three values/punts in today’s MLB DFS Primer.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top-ranked pitcher doesn't have a cupcake to feast on tonight. Nevertheless, he's too good to ignore, even in a potentially challenging matchup. The second pitcher on the table is an inviting tournament pick. Finally, the last two pitchers on the table are the most attractive SP2s at DK and viable in GPPs on FD.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Spencer Strider (ATL) at TOR
Strider is carving up the opposition this year. According to FanGraphs, his 2.63 xERA is the second-lowest among qualified pitchers in 2023. Strider's also spun a 2.70 ERA, 2.59 xFIP and 0.93 WHIP. Yet, this year, Strider's absurd 42.4 K% and 36.1 CSW% are his most eye-catching numbers.
Thus, Strider's a matchup-proof ace. However, he's labeled as a medium-risk pitcher because the Blue Jays are seventh in wRC+ (110) against righties this year. Nevertheless, per Betting Pros, the Braves are -156, and the game's total of 8.5 runs isn't terrifying. So, Strider is the top hurler across game types tonight.
J.P. France (HOU) at CWS
France is a 28-year-old rookie. He threw 5.0 scoreless innings in Seattle last week, allowing only three hits and a walk while striking out five batters. It was an impressive debut after pitching well in Triple-A since 2021. In 210.1 innings in Triple-A, France had a 3.64 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 1.31 WHIP, 11.1 BB% and 29.8 K%.
France's FIP and walk rate were reasons for pause. However, his high-strikeout rate is ideal for DFS. In addition, his salary is affordable, the matchup is good and the betting info is acceptable. The Pale Hose are 22nd in wRC+ (86) and have a 22.3 K% against righties this year. And the Astros are -145, albeit with a moderately concerning game total of 9.0 runs. France brings enough to the table to warrant SP2 use in all game types at DK, freeing up the requisite salary to use Strider and some stud hitters. The rookie is also a reasonable tournament option at FD.
GPP Recommendations:
Corbin Burnes (MIL) vs. KC
Burnes hasn't pitched like the front-of-the-rotation pitcher he's traditionally been. Unfortunately, he's struck out more than five batters only once in seven starts this year. Still, in Burnes's previous five starts totaling 30.1 innings, he's had a 2.08 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, 7.8 BB%, 22.4 K% and 14.2 SwStr%.
The former NL Cy Young Award winner is missing bats. So, the strikeouts should eventually come. And the matchup is good tonight. The Royals are tied for 25th in wRC+ (82) and have a 24.5 K% against right-handed pitchers in 2023. Finally, the Brewers are -240. So, the betting info is encouraging.
Kyle Bradish (BAL) vs. PIT
Bradish is primarily a pitch-modeling-fueled suggestion. Bradish has a 108 Stuff+, 101 Location+ and 100 Pitching+ this year, with his curve (131 Stuff+) and slider (137 Stuff+) standing out as impressive offerings.
The 26-year-old righty's 5.95 ERA and 5.26 xERA in five starts spanning 19.2 innings this year are unsightly, but his 4.45 xFIP isn't as ugly. Furthermore, he showed signs of life last year after he was recalled from the minors. In Bradish's most recent 18 starts, he's had a 3.86 ERA, 4.10 xFIP, 1.29 WHIP, 9.5 BB% and 21.3 K%, totaling 91.0 innings.
Bradish could be in line for positive regression, and the Pirates are slumping. In the last 14 days, the Buccos are tied for 23rd in wRC+ (89) and have had a 24.5 K%. As a result, the Orioles are -160, enhancing the appeal of taking a chance on Bradish as an SP2 in tournaments on DK.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Cardinals have a mouthwatering layout tonight. First, Fenway Park is MLB's third-highest-scoring venue. Second, they face a lefty tonight and smash southpaws. The Red Birds have six projected starters with a wRC+ of at least 126 against lefties since 2021. Third, James Paxton might be toast. He last toed the slab in the majors on April 6, 2021. Paxton's pitched only 21.2 innings since 2020 and was a trainwreck when he was last seen in The Show. It's wheels up for the Cardinals to take flight tonight. They're easily the most exciting stack on this massive slate. Fortunately, they might not get too chalky since there are other attractive stacks and a game at Coors Field.
- Road (Oakland Coliseum)
- Value: Low (FD)/Medium (DK)
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/TEX -190
The Rangers have an outstanding matchup tonight. Lefty Ken Waldichuk has a 7.25 ERA, 5.88 xERA and 5.64 xFIP in seven starts this season. He's also allowed an eye-popping 3.00 HR/9. After he hands the ball off to the bullpen, they might not provide much relief. Oakland's relievers have the highest ERA (6.79) and xFIP (6.06) in 2023. Thankfully, the Rangers are equipped to knock Waldichuk and Oakland's bullpen around. Texas is third in wRC+ (126) against left-handed pitchers this season. Have no fear. The Rangers can also touch up any righties from Oakland's bullpen since Texas is fifth in wRC+ (114) against right-handed pitchers this season.
- Road (Chase Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/SF -115
The Giants have a top-five offense against right-handed pitching this year, ranking fourth in wRC+ (117). However, they platoon many hitters and have a 25.1 K% against righties, creating a risk for stacking them. A stellar matchup makes them a worthwhile dice roll in tournaments, though. First, in seven starts lasting 36.0 innings this season, Ryne Nelson has a 6.00 ERA, 4.42 xERA, 4.74 xFIP and 1.53 WHIP. In addition, Nelson is unlikely to exploit San Francisco's high strikeout rate since he has only a 13.9 K% this season. Second, Arizona's bullpen is lousy, owning the sixth-highest ERA (4.82) this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt is a left-handed pitcher's nightmare. Since 2021, he's had a .453 OBP, .332 ISO and 217 wRC+ against lefties.
- Josh Jung has dominated with the platoon advantage in his young big-league career. He's smashed them for a .329 OBP, .366 ISO and 178 wRC+ in 73 plate appearances in the majors. Conversely, Waldichuk's coughed up a .375 OBP, .596 SLG and .412 wOBA to righties since last year.
- Kyle Tucker's a decent pick at DK. However, he's a screaming value at FD. Since 2021, Tucker had a .365 OBP, .228 ISO and 142 wRC+ against righties. The left-handed-hitting outfielder's results lag from his expected stats this year, making him a positive regression candidate. Additionally, Tucker can swipe bases, stealing five this year after snagging 25 last year.
- Juan Yepez is an above-average hitter against lefties. At nearly the minimum salary on FD and under $3,000 on DK, gamers are getting a lot of bang for their buck.
- Since 2021, Tommy Edman has had a .326 OBP, .215 ISO and 126 wRC+. Additionally, his value gets a lift from hitting leadoff against lefties.
- Ezequiel Duran has had a .321 OBP, .211 ISO and 126 wRC+ in his first 81 plate appearances against lefties in the majors.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
Hunting for value is paramount on tonight's slate. Thankfully, players like Yepez, Edman and Duran fit the bill. Jung is underpriced at DK, too. The Giants have some appealing bargains as well. Still, gamers should also pay the requisite cap space to use Goldy in a smash spot tonight.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
