Tonight’s main slate is moderately large, including 10 games. It begins at 7:07 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. The following suggested picks are narrowed to three starting pitchers, two stacks, three core studs and three values/punts.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top two pitchers on the table are neck and neck for the top honors. However, the betting info tipped the scales in favor of the southpaw. The third pitcher's underlying stats and matchup make him a viable tournament option, despite his ugly ERA.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Framber Valdez (HOU) vs. CHC
Valdez is a consistent workhorse. According to ESPN, he's tied for first in quality starts this year, spinning seven in eight starts, failing to have a quality start in only his season opener. And per FanGraphs, Valdez has a 2.38 ERA, 3.74 xERA, 2.60 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 62.6 GB%, 4.8 BB%, 27.1 K% and 29.4 CSW% in 53.0 innings this season.
Valdez is capable of giving even the best lineup fits. Fortunately, he's catching the Cubs at the right time. Chicago's tied for 18th in wRC+ (98) and has had a 24.2 K% in the last 14 days. Finally, per Betting Pros, the Astros are -185, and the game's total is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs. So, Valdez narrowly edges out the next pitcher for tonight's top option.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) at STL
Peralta is pitching well this year, with only a couple of blemishes on his game log. He's spun five quality starts in seven turns, including three in a row entering tonight. Peralta's also struck out at least five batters six times and fanned at least seven four times.
In seven starts totaling 40.2 innings in 2023, Peralta has a 3.32 ERA, 3.56 xERA, 3.69 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP, 8.2 BB%, 27.1 K% and 28.5 CSW%. The pitching matchup is average for Peralta. Yet, the betting info is adequate. The Brewers are -110, and the game's total is 8.0 runs. Therefore, Peralta's talent makes him a desirable DFS option in all game types at both DFS providers.
GPP Recommendation:
Jameson Taillon (CHC) at HOU
Taillon's 6.41 ERA in five starts is ugly. He's also pitched only 19.2 innings. However, Taillon should handle a full workload in his third start back from the Injured List (IL) after throwing 69 the last time he took the ball.
And Taillon might be due for regression to his rock-solid ERA estimators. Taillon has a 3.85 xERA, 3.76 xFIP and 3.57 SIERA. The righty also has a superb 28.1 K% in 2023. So, there's an appeal to using him in tournaments tonight at his bargain salary. And the matchup is a plus, too. The Astros are tied for 23rd in wRC+ (83) against righties. They're also 28th in wRC+ (72) in the last 14 days. Thus, Taillon's a worthy dice roll in GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Home (Rogers Centre)
- Value: Low (DK)/Medium (FD)
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Yankees haven't announced a starter, but Roster Resource projects Jhony Brito to toe the slab. The 25-year-old rookie righty is lousy this year by any measure. In eight starts spanning 31.0 innings, he has a 5.81 ERA, 6.97 xERA, 5.62 xFIP, 5.35 SIERA, 1.48 WHIP, 10.1 BB% and 15.9 K%. Brito has also coughed up an eye-catching 1.74 HR/9. Furthermore, Brito has a reverse platoon which the righty-laden Blue Jays can exploit. Since last year, Brito has allowed a .631 SLG and .408 wOBA to 72 righties. So, the Blue Jays can smash tonight.
- Road (Busch Stadium)
- Value: High
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/MIL -110
Jack Flaherty is a mouthwatering matchup for the Brewers. St. Louis's probable starter has a 6.18 ERA, 6.10 xERA, 5.04 xFIP, 5.23 SIERA, 1.73 WHIP and 15.3 BB% in eight starts this year. Moreover, he struggles against righties and lefties. Since last year, right-handed batters have had a .333 wOBA against Flaherty. Lefties have been even better, touching up Flaherty for a .416 OBP, .526 SLG and .409 wOBA. So, Milwaukee's ceiling is high in a dreamy matchup.
- In 321 plate appearances against righties since last year, Jake Fraley has had 16 homers, a .374 OBP, .219 ISO and 137 wRC+. He'll also benefit from the park factors at Coors Field and a matchup against Connor Seabold tonight. Lefties have crushed Seabold for a .416 OBP, .615 SLG and .436 wOBA since last year.
- Vladimir Guerrero has a track record of excellence against righties. Additionally, he's lit them up for a .371 OBP, .259 ISO and 155 wRC+ this year.
- Bo Bichette is also smashing righties this year, tallying a .364 OBP, .189 ISO and 145 wRC+ in 140 plate appearances.
- In 319 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Mitch Haniger has had a .345 OBP, .249 ISO and 138 wRC+. Meanwhile, since last year, Bailey Falter has allowed a .473 SLG and .342 wOBA to righties.
- In 408 plate appearances against southpaws since 2021, Wilmer Flores has had a .328 OBP, .187 ISO and 114 wRC+.
- Brice Turang is cheap left-handed exposure to Flaherty.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Blue Jays are the most enticing source of hitters tonight. In addition, the Brewers are an attractive option in tournaments. The Giants have a couple of value hitters in a plus matchup. And Fraley is an exciting pick at Coors Field.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
