Tonight’s main MLB DFS slate is small. And it’s different at DraftKings and FanDuel. It has six games and begins at 6:40 pm ET on FD. Conversely, it has five games and starts at 7:05 pm ET on DK. The suggested picks are narrowed to three pitchers, two stacks, core studs and values/punts.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Sadly, Logan Webb is a lousy option tonight as the projected bulk pitcher, removing a viable option from the slate. However, the top choice on the table is an exciting pick. The final two pitchers are SP2 options at DK and a contrarian GPP pick at FD.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs. OAK
Gilbert is pitching at a high level this year, and his 3.81 ERA doesn't do his work justice. According to FanGraphs, in nine starts totaling 52.0 innings, he's had a 3.09 xERA, 2.94 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, 4.9 BB%, 30.6 K% and 28.9 CSW%. So, his underlying stats are much better than his 3.81 ERA.
In an excellent matchup tonight, he can close the gap between his ERA and ERA estimators. The Athletics are tied for 22nd in wRC+(85) and have a 26.4 K% against right-handed pitchers this year. And the betting info is also ideal. Per Betting Pros, the Mariners are -230, and the game's total is 7.5 runs. Gilbert will be chalky. However, he should be as the unquestioned top hurler tonight.
JP Sears (OAK) at SEA
Sears has an ugly 4.99 ERA in nine starts this year, totaling 48.2 innings. And his 4.57 xERA and 4.61 xFIP indicate he hasn't been terribly unlucky. Homers have had a major hand in his lousy ERA since he's served up 2.03 HR/9.
Sears' entire profile isn't terrible, though. He's walked only 4.9% of the hitters he's faced this year, and his 25.1 K% is above average. The lefty's matchup tonight elevates his DFS appeal. The Mariners are 23rd in wRC+ (87) against lefties. Moreover, Seattle has a 26.5 K% against them. So, Sears should score a helpful amount of DK and FD points on punchouts. And if he has some good fortune on fly balls staying in the yard, he can significantly outperform his salary.
GPP Recommendation:
Kyle Hendricks (CHC) vs. NYM
Hendricks might get crushed in his season debut for the Cubs. Unfortunately, he hasn't pitched below a 4.77 ERA since 2020. The veteran righty's 5.75 ERA in five starts in Triple-A this year was alarming, too. Yet, Hendricks's 4.16 xFIP was adequate.
Additionally, his ERA was inflated by his first two starts in Triple-A this year. In three subsequent starts, he had a 1.69 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 0.94 WHIP, 3.3 BB% and 23.3 K% in 16.0 innings. Therefore, Hendricks is a viable dart in tournaments for adventurous gamers willing to take a chance on him maintaining his momentum.
Top Lineup Stacks
Clarke Schmidt pitched well in the bullpen last year but hasn't enjoyed much success in the rotation this season. In 10 starts, he's had a 6.00 ERA. Sure, his 4.99 xERA hints at some bad luck. Regardless, a 4.99 xERA isn't anything to write home about. The righty has been a train wreck against lefties specifically. The 100 lefties who've faced Clarke have had a .430 OBP, .644 SLG and .452 wOBA this season. So, with seven batters projected to start who will bat left-handed against Schmidt for Baltimore, the Orioles can light up the scoreboard tonight.
- Road (American Family Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
Julio Teheran is projected to start for the Brewers, and the Giants should be licking their chops in anticipation of facing him. The veteran righty had a 5.63 ERA, 5.32 xFIP and allowed 1.58 HR/9 in eight starts in Triple-A in San Diego's organization to begin this year. Teheran didn't pitch at all in 2022 after getting destroyed for an 8.92 ERA, 6.28 xFIP and 3.22 HR/9 in 36.1 innings from 2020-2021 (31.1 innings for the Angels in 2020 and 5.0 for the Tigers in 2021). So, the Giants should have no trouble tattooing Teheran tonight.
- Cedric Mullins is a do-it-all dynamo. In 208 plate appearances this year, he has a .359 OBP, .231 ISO, 139 wRC+, eight homers and 13 stolen bases.
- Adley Rutschman has had a .387 OBP, .214 ISO and 149 wRC+ in 496 plate appearances against righties since debuting in The Show last year.
- LaMonte Wade is a terror for righties atop San Francisco's batting order. In 138 plate appearances against them this year, he has a .442 OBP, .210 ISO and 161 wRC+.
- Trea Turner's first year on the Phillies hasn't gotten off to an ideal start. And he's not a great pick at DK at his high salary. However, Turner is an exciting value pick at FD. In 419 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Turner has had a .370 OBP, .258 ISO and 154 wRC+.
- Michael Conforto has a .349 OBP, .219 ISO and 121 wRC+ against righties this year. And he's white-hot lately, mashing six taters with a .364 OBP in his last 55 plate appearances.
- Gunnar Henderson is cheap left-handed exposure to Schmidt. Further, he's had a .354 OBP, .219 ISO and 132 wRC+ against righties since debuting for the Orioles last summer.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Orioles and Giants are the two most desirable sources of hitters on tonight's small slate. But Turner is also a sweet value option at FD.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
