While the 2023 NFL regular season is still a few months away, now is the time to prepare for the fantasy season. Plenty will change between now and the end of August. However, one of the toughest things fantasy players have to do is make tough decisions between two players with a similar ADP.
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ADP Analysis & Draft Advice
Today I am going to compare two sets of players. I will explain why you should draft each player and determine who will have more fantasy value this season.
The first set is Joe Mixon (ADP: 56.1 | RB18) and Miles Sanders (ADP: 59.7 | RB19). The second set is Rachaad White (ADP: 84.3 | RB26) and James Conner (ADP: 86.5 | RB27).
The Argument for Joe Mixon
Many labeled Mixon a do not draft candidate earlier this offseason. There were rumors that the Cincinnati Bengals could release the star running back. However, everything went in Mixon’s favor. The Bengals lost Samaje Perine in free agency. Last year the veteran running back averaged 8.3 touches per game, the most since his rookie season. Yet, the only addition to the backfield this offseason is the fifth-round rookie Chase Brown.
Meanwhile, Mixon had another productive year in 2022. He averaged 15 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The veteran running back has averaged at least 14.8 fantasy points per game in four of the past five years. More importantly, Mixon is coming off the best year of his career in the passing game, posting career highs in receptions (60), targets (75), and receiving yards (441).
The Argument for Miles Sanders
Everyone remembers how awful Sanders was in 2021. He ended the year as the RB45, averaging only 8.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, the former Penn State had unprecedented bad luck finding the end zone, scoring zero touchdowns on his 163 touches. Thankfully, Sanders bounced back last season, ending the year as the RB13, averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he had 11 rushing touchdowns, beating his career total entering the season by two.
Despite averaging a career-high 12.2 fantasy points per game last season, Sanders had the worst of his career in the passing game. The veteran running had only 20 receptions on 26 targets for 78 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. Yet, he made up for the lack of passing game work on the ground with 1,269 rushing yards, finishing fifth in the NFL. By comparison, Sanders never had more than 867 rushing yards in any other year of his career.
The Verdict
Both running backs should have solid 2023 fantasy seasons. Mixon had everything go his way this offseason to keep his job and likely earn a few extra touches a game this year. Meanwhile, Sanders signed with the Carolina Panthers and will take over as the lead guy in the backfield. However, I would rather have Sanders over Mixon this year for two reasons.
One, Mixon’s numbers last year are deceitful. The veteran running back scored 25.4% of his fantasy points and 55.6% of his touchdowns last season in the Week 9 matchup. Therefore, he averaged only 12 fantasy points per game and had only four touchdowns in the other 13 contests.
Meanwhile, Sanders got held back in Philadelphia because of Jalen Hurts‘ rushing ability. Now that he will play with a pocket-passing rookie quarterback, the veteran running back should see more goal-line touches and targets. New head coach Frank Reich likes using his running backs in the passing game. Running backs averaged 116.5 targets per season in the four full seasons that Reich was the head coach with the Indianapolis Colts.
While Mixon should be a solid mid-to-low-end RB2 for fantasy players this season, Sanders has much more upside. The Carolina running back is 16-1 to lead the NFL in rushing yards this season. Given his role on the offense and success last year, that is a solid bet. More importantly, Sanders could set career highs this year on the ground and in the passing game.
The Argument for Rachaad White
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made White a big winner this offseason. First, the team released Leonard Fournette and only signed Chase Edmonds in free agency. Second, the Buccaneers didn’t add a running back during the 2023 NFL Draft. Tampa Bay could add a veteran like Ezekiel Elliott or Kareem in free agency. However, that seems unlikely, given the team’s outlook for this season. Therefore, White should be one of the few running backs with a featured role in 2023.
Last year the former Arizona State star had a solid rookie year despite splitting the backfield with Fournette. He ended the year as the RB38, averaging 6.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. More importantly, he played only 39.3% of the snaps as a rookie but averaged 0.24 fantasy points per snap. Furthermore, White was targeted on 23.8% of his routes last season. With Fournette off the roster, the second-year running back is a popular breakout candidate.
The Argument for James Conner
Yes, fantasy players don’t love the idea of drafting Connor. However, he is a steal as an eighth-round pick. The Arizona Cardinals made him a winner this offseason. They didn’t add any significant running backs in free agency. Furthermore, the team didn’t use a draft pick on the running back position. Instead, the Cardinals spent two draft picks on the offensive line, including their first round on Paris Johnson Jr. Meanwhile, Arizona recently released DeAndre Hopkins after he averaged 10.7 targets per game last season.
Unfortunately, Kyler Murray will miss the start of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL last year. However, that’s good news for Conner’s fantasy value. The veteran running is likely heading into his final year with the Cardinals. Therefore, the team has no reason not to run him into the ground, as he is not part of their long-term plans. More importantly, Conner was outstanding to end last season. Over his final seven contests, the veteran averaged 21.3 touches and 17.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. With a limited passing game, the Cardinals will have no choice but to put the offense on Conner’s back.
The Verdict
Both running backs are in the same situation. They are the featured guy with a limited No. 2 running back behind them on the depth chart. Furthermore, White and Conner will be on offenses expected to be in negative game script very often this season. Also, both running backs have proven they can play a role in the passing game.
Many will draft White over Conner because of the age gap. However, the former Arizona State star struggled in the running game as a rookie. He averaged only 3.7 yards per rushing attempt last year behind a poor Tampa Bay offensive line. White also averaged only 2.33 yards after contact per rushing attempt. Furthermore, he lacks explosiveness, having only 6.2% of his rushing attempts go for 10 or more yards last season. Moreover, only 3.1% of his attempts result in a gain of 15 or more yards.
Meanwhile, the older Conner was more explosive last season. He had 54 more rushing attempts in four fewer games than White but had 8.2% of his runs go for 10 or more yards and 3.3% gain 15 or more yards. More importantly, the veteran averaged 4.3 yards per rushing attempt and 2.81 yards after contact per attempt last year despite playing behind the second-worst run-blocking offensive line, according to PFF. Furthermore, Conner averaged over 4.7 yards per rushing attempt in four of the final five games last year.
These two running backs are in similar situations, so we will see how their ADP changes over the next few months. However, fantasy players should target Conner ahead of White in their drafts. The veteran was the more productive runner last season despite being older and playing behind the weaker offensive line. Furthermore, Arizona did more to improve their offensive line this offseason than Tampa Bay. More importantly, the Cardinals have one proven wide receiver in Marquise Brown. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have two in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Therefore, Arizona will lean on its running back more than Tampa Bay.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
