MLB is back from the All-Star break tonight. And the MLB DFS main slate is massive, featuring 14 games starting at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s primer has four pitchers, three stacks, three studs and three values/punts suggested for use on the slate.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top pitcher on tonight's slate is the best pick in cash games and a sweet choice in GPPs. The second pick has a higher salary than the top pitcher. Yet, he also possesses a high ceiling which fits perfectly in GPPs. The third pitcher on the table is DK's best SP2 in cash games. He's also an outstanding choice in GPPs at both DFS providers. And the fourth pitcher is an appealing SP2 pivot in GPPs at DK and a viable tournament pick at FD.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. DET
Castillo has dominated from the hill at T-Mobile Park. According to Baseball-Reference, in 98.0 innings in Seattle, he's had a 2.11 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 5.8% and 31.9 K%.
Castillo has an ideal matchup and dreamy betting info tonight. According to FanGraphs, the Tigers are 29th in wRC+ (84) and have a 24.4 K% against righties this year. They're also tied for 28th in wRC+ (79) and have a 24.3 K% on the road. And, per Betting Pros, the Mariners are -200, and the game's total is only 7.0 runs.
Kenta Maeda (MIN) at OAK
Maeda has been lights out since returning from the Injured List (IL). In those three starts spanning 17.0 innings, he had a 1.59 ERA, 3.20 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, 7.8 BB%, 32.8 K%, 31.0 CSW%, 100 Stuff+, 102 Location+ and 98 Pitching+.
The veteran righty can stay hot in a good matchup tonight. The Athletics are tied for 26th in wRC+ (85) and have a 25.1 K% against righties in 2023. They're also 29th in wRC+ (85) and have a 25.1 K% at home this year. So, Maeda should mow them down.
GPP Recommendations:
Tyler Glasnow (TB) at KC
Sadly, Glasnow hasn't been a workhorse through eight starts this year, totaling just 41.2 innings. Still, he's pitched well, with only one dud. Glasnow allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his starts. He's also been a strikeout whiz, fanning at least six batters in all his starts and punching out at least seven in his previous four starts.
Glasnow should shine tonight in literally the best matchup. The Royals are dead last in wRC+ (77) and have a 24.8 K% against righties this season. Kansas City is also just 28th in wRC+ (87) and has a 21.7 K% at home this year. Finally, the Rays are -300.
Brayan Bello (BOS) at CHC
Bello has overachieved lately. In his previous five starts spanning 34.2 innings, he's had a 4.11 xFIP. However, Bello spun a 1.82 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 5.3 BB%, 18.0 K% and 27.6 CSW%. Admittedly, the gap between Bello's xFIP and ERA wasn't ideal. But his plate discipline data was better than his strikeout rate. Thus, Bello could enjoy positive strikeout regression.
The matchup is also a plus for Bello. The Cubs are 19th in wRC+ (94) and have a 23.6 K% against righties in 2023. They are also 17th in wRC+ (99) and have a 23.0 K% at home this season. And the betting info isn't perfect. Still, the Red Sox are slight favorites (-120).
Top Lineup Stacks
The Rays destroy righties and rake on the road. First, Tampa Bay is first in wRC+ (122) against righties in 2023. Second, they're third in wRC+ (114) on the road this year. They'd be a handful for any starting pitcher. However, the matchup is sweet, too. Alec Marsh has a 7.00 ERA, 7.78 xERA and 6.21 xFIP in two starts for the Royals. He also had a 5.32 ERA and 4.33 xFIP in 11 starts (47.1 innings) in Double-A earlier this year. In addition, Kansas City's relievers have the second-highest ERA (5.09) this season. So, the Rays should tee off tonight.
- Home (T-Mobile Park)
- Value: High
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 7.0 Runs/SEA -200
The Mariners have a lousy matchup tonight. Eduardo Rodriguez has a 2.64 ERA, 3.25 xERA and 3.40 xFIP in 12 starts this year. So, is Seattle's offense elite? Not exactly. They're 16th in wRC+ (100) against lefties and tied for 11th in wRC+ (106) at home this season. However, five of Seattle's projected starters have had higher than a 120 wRC+ against lefties since 2021 (or since debuting in the majors), and a sixth hitter has had a 111 wRC+. So, they have some top-shelf lefty-killers, making them a fun contrarian stack tonight in tournaments.
- Home (Truist Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/ATL -250
The Braves are an offensive juggernaut. This year, they're third in wRC+ (115) and first in ISO (.214) against righties. And they're third in wRC+ (123) and first in ISO (.223) at home this season. The Braves can light up the scoreboard tonight against a pitcher who's been volatile this year and struggled mightily with his control lately. In Kopech's previous three starts that lasted only 12.1 innings, he walked 16 batters and struck out only 12. The White Sox's bullpen is also a good matchup for the Braves since Chicago's relievers have the fifth-highest ERA (4.74) this year. As a result, Atlanta's ceiling is sky-high tonight.
- In 322 plate appearances against righties this year, Ronald Acuna has had a .407 OBP, .249 ISO and 165 wRC+. He also had a jaw-dropping 41 stolen bases before the All-Star break.
- Luke Raley has a .362 OBP, .304 ISO and 164 wRC+ in 219 plate appearances against righties this season.
- Wander Franco has a stellar 121 wRC+ against righties this year. However, his value is enhanced by his stolen-base prowess. Franco has stolen 28 bases this year.
- Teoscar Hernandez has had a .357 OBP, .348 ISO and 178 wRC+ in 322 plate appearances against lefties this season.
- C.J. Cron rakes with the platoon advantage at Coors Field. In 211 plate appearances against lefties in Colorado since 2021, he's had a .379 OBP, .355 ISO, .426 wOBA and 144 wRC+.
- In 313 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Josh Donaldson has had a .339 OBP, .283 ISO and 135 wRC+. In addition, he's had a .565 ISO in 24 plate appearances against lefties this year.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Rays are an exciting stack in all game types, thanks to a mix of studs and value-salary picks. And the Braves are the most exciting full stack in GPPs, albeit expensive. And the Mariners are a contrarian choice in GPPs.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
