Though training camps are only a few days underway, it’s never too early to read into key storylines emerging from camps around the league. Here is a riser and faller at two skill positions, with its fantasy football fallout.
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Training Camp Early Risers & Fallers
Running Back
Riser
Saquon Barkley (NYG)
Saquon might have called it an “epiphany” that suddenly and unexpectedly ended his contract stalemate with the Giants, but it’s simply a deep exhale for fantasy managers. Not only is Barkley back with the team and back in his workhorse role, his remodeled contract is based on incentives. Those incentives are lofty – 1,350 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns, 65 receptions – and all tied to the Giants making the playoffs too. Translation: don’t expect Saquon to take it easy on the field when his potential payday is connected to his team’s success. I’ve long considered Saquon an overrated asset in fantasy; I still wouldn’t endorse taking him in Round 1. However, with this commitment in an offense with Year 2 continuity, he’s solidified himself as the RB5 heading into redraft season. I’d endorse him ahead of other RBs on the theoretical cusp of free agency, like Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, and Tony Pollard.
Faller
Josh Jacobs (LV)
This is another potential entry into the “Captain Obvious” territory…but I think it’s time that we talk about the matter of Jacobs not even being close to reporting to the Raiders.
We won’t be seeing Josh Jacobs for a long time.
– Vic Tafur (@VicTafur) July 17, 2023
It’s not like the early drafting community hasn’t acknowledged this. Jacobs’ ADP currently puts him in Round 3 when he’s a clear Round 1 player in a fantasy football vacuum. But…that’s still way too high! Just because Saquon reached a truce with the Giants doesn’t mean that we should expect the same for Jacobs in time. This is the same Raiders team that also declined Jacobs’ fifth-year option ahead of the 2022 season, and Josh McDaniels’ reputation in player relations isn’t exactly the most sparkling. Jacobs is also younger, healthier, and, quite frankly, a better runner than Barkley, so he likely has more to gain by hitting free agency with the cleanest slate in a year. Jacobs is currently going ahead of the likes of Amari Cooper, Deebo Samuel, and Lamar Jackson in drafts. I love Jacobs too, but as things stand, that’s madness.
Wide Receiver
Riser
Odell Beckham Jr. (BAL)
It feels odd to write about possibly the biggest celebrity in the NFL…but have we collectively forgotten how good Odell Beckham Jr. remains at football? I get that he’s a bit of a headache, injury prone, and turning 31 during this upcoming season, but he was still awesome the last time we saw him on the field with the Rams. From Weeks 12-17 of the 2021 season – the period in which Odell was starting for the Rams in meaningful games – he ranked as the WR13 in Half-PPR scoring. Now, I’m not suggesting that he belongs in that territory, but Beckham has looked sharp, and the Ravens made a real financial commitment to him. If he develops real chemistry with Lamar Jackson, then his current ADP as WR52 will be a steal.
Faller
Keenan Allen (LAC)
This one is a bit of a stretch compared to the rest, but there are a few factors working against Allen heading into 2023, and he’s still being drafted like he’s 2018, Keenan Allen, as the WR19. In fairness, Allen’s per-game stats remained strong last season, but he did miss 7 games and is now rapidly approaching the age cliff at 31 years old. But more than that, especially for the purposes of this article, I just harbor doubt that Allen will remain the focal point of the Chargers’ passing attack. New OC Kellen Moore historically favors spread-out distribution in his offense, and the Chargers spent their Round 1 pick on WR Quentin Johnston. And now, reports are that an early focus for the Chargers is weaponizing Mike Williams, including giving him snaps in Allen’s familiar home of the slot. With Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett in the fold, too, it’s tough to envision Allen commanding a 24% target share like he did over the final 8 weeks of 2022. Allen ranked as the fourth highest-scoring WR in the league during that span, but a dip in volume could cap his upside at a WR2 level or maybe even a WR3.
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