In recent years, the elevation of wide receivers in fantasy drafts has become a trend. The rise of pass-heavy schemes and rules that favor offenses has fueled the belief that certain wideouts possess the potential to deliver league-winning fantasy point totals, leading fantasy managers to prioritize receivers over other positions. Navigating the draft landscape requires a delicate balance between seizing opportunities and adhering to ADP, a strategy that can make the difference between winning your league and sinking your roster.
Today we are looking at four receivers to avoid at their current ADP. Each of these players comes with concerns about injuries, performance fluctuations, and new circumstances that could have a major effect on their performance this year.
In recent years, the elevation of wide receivers in fantasy drafts has become a trend. The rise of pass-heavy schemes and rules that favor offenses has fueled the belief that certain wideouts possess the potential to deliver league-winning fantasy point totals, leading fantasy managers to prioritize receivers over other positions. Navigating the draft landscape requires a delicate balance between seizing opportunities and adhering to ADP, a strategy that can make the difference between winning your league and sinking your roster.
Today we are looking at four receivers to avoid at their current ADP. Each of these players comes with concerns about injuries, performance fluctuations, and new circumstances that could have a major effect on their performance this year.
Overvalued Wide Receivers Based on ADP
The concern here is all about health for me, both for Kupp and Matthew Stafford. Kupp is coming off of tightrope surgery on his ankle after suffering a high-ankle sprain in Week 10. Additionally, he has missed the last two weeks of training camp with a hamstring injury, and it doesn’t appear he will be back much before Week 1. This could simply be a situation where the Rams are giving him ample time to rest, but that isn’t the type of thing you want from a mid-1st Round pick. Combine that with Stafford’s own injury history (he missed six games in 2022 due to a neck injury and concussion), and Kupp is someone I am off of at his ADP.
The 31-year-old Allen is another receiver coming off an injury, which is why I am skeptical about him for the 2023 season. My concern for Allen is less about his health and more that his ADP is that of a WR2, which I believe assumes his normal volume will continue this season. While Allen was the overall WR4 from Week 11 to Week 18 to end the season, he did that on the back of a 26% target share. The trouble is, he also ranked 85th among receivers with an aDOT of 8.5, so he needs massive volume to thrive.
With the addition of rookie Quentin Johnson and the return of Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett, Allen will find himself with more competition for targets than he’s previously seen. With the Chargers looking to push the ball downfield more often, I would much prefer drafting Allen a round or two later than where is at.
Pickens has seen his ADP bounce around a bit, and he’s actually been a faller until his touchdown catch in Week 1 of the preseason. Despite that play (and Kenny Pickett looking much improved), I am off of Pickens this year in fantasy. Pickens was boom or bust last year, logging six weeks where he finished as a WR24 or better. The trouble is, he also had eight games where he finished as the WR50 or worst. I don’t see that pattern changing much as Pickens will work behind Diontae Johnson for targets, meaning his 15.1% target share may not see a significant increase in a run-heavy scheme.
Additionally, Pickens could have trouble seeing much time in the RedZone, with Pittsburgh deploying Allen Robinson, Pat Freiermuth, and Darnell Washington near the goalline. Can Pickens have some weeks where he blows up? Absolutely. But if you look at the other receivers going a few picks later than him (Jordan Addison, Jahan Dotson), he makes a tough name to click.
Thielen is somehow being drafted as the overall WR50, which is mind-blowing. He is coming off a season where he finished with 107 targets playing in an offense where Kirk Cousins was fourth in the league in pass attempts. Now as he’s turned 32, he heads to Carolina, where he will be playing with a rookie quarterback in an offense that skews more towards a balanced attack (if not run-heavy).
Sure, Thielen may be a household name, but in the later rounds of redraft leagues, I would much rather take a chance on someone like Elijah Moore, Rashod Bateman, or Tyler Boyd in this range.
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Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky
