Some players generate a wide range of opinions or a divide within the fantasy football community. These players with a high standard deviation are considered polarizing because the range of opinions, rankings and projections means there isn’t a clear consensus. Some of these players will be busts. Some will be breakouts. Others will be somewhere in between. What matters is identifying why these players are polarizing and then determining just how risky they are and how you value them relative to your league and settings.
Our analysts combed through the expert consensus rankings (ECR) and identified the most polarizing players at each position. The results and accompanying justifications are below.
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Polarizing Tight Ends
Who is one TE with a high standard deviation you are higher or lower on, and why?
Sam LaPorta (TE – DET)
“I really liked Sam LaPorta as a prospect, especially in a loaded tight end class, but the lack of success that rookie tight ends have in the NFL is long documented. Since 2000, there have only been five recorded seasons of a rookie tight end scoring at least 150 PPR points in a season (which would have been good for TE14 overall last year). The Lions are an offense that profiles as one that is not super friendly for tight ends, so I’m going to bet on history repeating itself. ”
– Sam Hoppen (FantasyPros)
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF)
“I remain bullish on Dalton Kincaid‘s upside for 2023. Yes, I know rookie tight ends don’t historically hit the ground running, but I’m willing to go out on a limb with Kincaid. The talent is evident after Kincaid ranked second in yards per route run and first in receiving grade last year among collegiate tight ends (per PFF). Add in that he’ll operate in one of the league’s best offenses with an MVP candidate under center, and you can see the upside path for this year. Kincaid can break the mold. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“I hate to say it since I love the talent and the landing spot, but there’s just no way I’ll be drafting Dalton Kincaid at TE18. Great pick in dynasty, and you could very easily paint a picture of Kincaid being the Travis Kelce to Josh Allen‘s Patrick Mahomes, but it is just too rare for rookie tight ends to be worth a draft pick. Even Kelce himself made zero impact during his rookie season before it was cut short by injury. Much has been made of the Bills needing more receiving help beyond Stefon Diggs, but I’m a believer in Gabe Davis as a post-hype sleeper, and Josh Allen isn’t going to just forget about Dawson Knox. Dalton Kincaid is a great talent in a great offense, but you’ll never go broke betting against rookie tight ends.”
– Ryan Wormeli (FantasyPros)
Taysom Hill (TE – NO)
“Taysom Hill. His ECR is TE19, and he has the highest standard deviation of any top-35 tight end. I have him at TE30. Never mind the fact that Hill isn’t actually a tight end. His usage is wildly unpredictable, and his fantasy point totals are all over the place. Hill finished TE5 in half-point PPR scoring last year, but that included a 34.1-point performance in which he had three touchdowns and a handful of other double-digit games. He finished with 4.5 or fewer fantasy points on six occasions. I’m guessing the Saints will use Hill as a wildcat QB less frequently this season now that they have Derek Carr at quarterback instead of Andy Dalton. And, oh, by the way, Hill turns 33 shortly before the start of the new season.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Darren Waller (TE – NYG)
“If Darren Waller stays healthy, he is going to smash in fantasy football. He is going to be the ALPHA pass-catcher in the Giants’ offense, and being the No. 1 in an offense is a rare feat. I get why those are out due to his injuries the last two seasons, but he was still efficient when played last year. Waller finished second in the NFL in yards per reception (13.9) and 10th in yards per route run. He also posted the second-highest rate of top-6 finishes (38%). There’s enough of a discount at TE7 ADP that considers the injury risk. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
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