Advanced stats can help fantasy managers determine potential breakout candidates in fantasy football. Two wide receivers can have similar stat lines in a given week. But they may have gotten there in different ways, and one may have more value going forward than another.
In recent years, targets and target share have become an important part of how we value pass catchers. However, those metrics only tell part of the story. This is because not all targets have the same fantasy value.
Air yards is an important metric because it can often be an indicator of a player’s potential value. Downfield targets offer more big play – and thus big fantasy point – potential. Those players who are being targeted often and also down the field could be in store for more fantasy production down the road.
Let us take a look at some of the top air yards performances from Week 2 to see if we can uncover any hidden gems. And you can find the full article here with all of my Week 3 takeaways.
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Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis & Takeaways: Week 3
The Top 10 Wide Receivers
|Name||Team||Tar||Rec||Rec Yds||Air Yds||aDOT||Air %||Tar %|
Kendrick Bourne tops this week’s air yards list at the wide receiver position. And though it did not lead to much in the way of fantasy points in Week 2, Bourne’s usage is certainly worth monitoring. He is now second in the NFL in air yards behind only Tyreek Hill. And Bourne showed his ceiling with a two-TD effort in Week 1. I do not think we are looking at a true breakout, if for no other reason than I do not believe Bill Belichick wants Mac Jones to throw the ball 48 times per game. But Bourne should continue to have value going forward. Bourne’s 20 targets are tied for sixth among wide receivers through two weeks. And his 15.65 aDOT leads all wideouts who have seen at least 10 targets thus far.
I wish I knew what to advise for fantasy managers with Garrett Wilson. Wilson had 83 yards receiving and a touchdown in Week 2. But you can make the argument that he could have had about 150 yards and three touchdowns. Wilson missed out on a potential touchdown in the corner of the endzone because Zach Wilson’s arm was hit before he could complete the throw. Zach Wilson then proceeded to stare down Garrett Wilson on a long play late in the game, which ended up in an interception. The Jets’ quarterback and offensive line play are not going to improve anytime soon. As talented as Garrett Wilson is, he is likely to be limited by the pieces around him. He can still make enough plays to be a solid starter, but his ceiling simply isn’t what it was two weeks ago.