Labor Day weekend represents the unofficial end of summer (although temps are expected to approach 100 where I’m at in Chicagoland). But it also represents the biggest weekend of the year for fantasy football drafts.
Inevitably, during your respective drafts, you’ll have to answer this internal question: “Should I buy the hype on player X?”
It seems like every year the majority of the fantasy community latches onto a handful of names as top guys to target for various reasons. The question is whether you should join these players on “The Hype Train,” or let the train pass by and find another mode of fantasy transportation.
In this article, I’ll help you answer these pressing questions on some of the most-hyped names of the summer.
Believe the Hype? (2023 Fantasy Football)
Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)
You knew I had to start with Robinson, who has been arguably the most hyped player in fantasy football since he was drafted by Atlanta in April. Robinson sits at No. 8 overall in our Expert Consensus Rankings and is ranked as the RB3 for a bevy of reasons.
- Robinson is a slam-dunk draft prospect, the best tailback prospect since Saquon Barkley came out.
- Robinson landed in a run-first offense in Atlanta that turned Tyler Allgeier into a 1,000-yard rusher.
- The Falcons have one of the league’s top offensive lines, one that shall pave the path to an insane season.
These are all valid reasons for liking Robinson. However, like I’ve said before when discussing Travis Kelce‘s ADP, taking Robinson this high in drafts gives you no margin for error whatsoever.
How likely is it that Robinson puts up Barkley’s 2018 rookie season of 1,307 rushing yards, 91 receptions for another 721 yards, and 15 combined touchdowns? His 340 fantasy points in a half-PPR league are the third-most all-time in a rookie season and that’s essentially what you’re asking of Robinson by taking him inside the top 10.
When looking at Robinson’s draft price, I resort to my old adage: You can’t win your league in Round 1, but you can lose it. The best-case scenario for Bijan is a season we’ve already seen from the likes of Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, and Derrick Henry.
I’d rather roll the dice with the established commodity that early in my draft. If I miss out, I tip my cap and hope the RB1 I end up with puts up a similarly good season.
The Verdict: Don’t believe the hype at Robinson’s current draft price.
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
Full disclosure: I am a New York Jets fan, but a realistic one at that. I think the hype surrounding the Jets is a tad overblown. Playoffs are definitely realistic, but the Super Bowl buzz has gotten a bit out of control.
However, I don’t think the hype surrounding Garrett Wilson has gotten to this level. In fact, I’m probably one of the most optimistic people out there on Wilson, as I believe he’s a legitimate threat to finish as the WR1 in fantasy football.
There, I said it. So you can probably guess I’m believing the hype. Here’s why:
Wilson finished as the WR19 in half-PPR formats a year ago despite some highly inefficient stats. He caught just 83 of 147 targets (56%), his catch rate ranked 173rd among all receivers, and his success rate ranked 103rd. He also scored just four touchdowns on those targets and could be due for some natural regression in that area.
I’m willing to bet that Wilson’s QB play in 2022 prevented him from finishing as a top-1o wideout. Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White were mostly abysmal and occasionally competent. Say what you want about where Aaron Rodgers is in his career, he’s still a heck of a lot better than any of those aforementioned passers. Plus, Rodgers and Wilson have quickly developed trust during the offseason.
Touchdown! Rodgers to Garrett Wilson, what a throw!pic.twitter.com/NAGQWZQamX
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) August 26, 2023
I haven’t even mentioned that Wilson is an insanely good separator and route runner already. The talent is obvious and the situation around him has drastically improved. Wilson is the new Davante Adams for Rodgers. A top-5 fantasy finish is absolutely on the table.
The verdict: Believe the hype!
Chris Olave (WR – NO)
Let’s move on to Wilson’s former Ohio State teammate, Chris Olave, who has some special traits as well. He’s a winner at all three levels of the field but is even faster than Wilson. Olave’s stats are equally as impressive as Wilson’s in two fewer games played and like Wilson, Olave dealt with horrid quarterback play from Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton.
I don’t think the addition of Derek Carr in New Orleans is as great as Rodgers landing in New York, but it’s clear Carr is a huge upgrade nonetheless. Hopefully, Carr trusts himself to take more chances downfield, where Olave can really thrive. Additionaly, like Wilson, Olave should benefit from better quarterback play from an efficiency standpoint alone.
The arrow is clearly pointing up on these Buckeyes wideouts, and I suspect these two will be first-round picks in 2024 drafts, representing the new wave of elite wideouts.
The verdict: Believe the hype!
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
