For those tuning into the usage report for the first time; the idea behind the usage report has always been about identifying which players are running routes, seeing high snap shares, and earning high-value targets as these tend to be precursors for future fantasy production. And sometimes they don’t always show up in the normal box score.
So, without further ado…let’s unveil the 2023 Usage Report for Week 2, to prepare for success in Week 3. The Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings Forecast featuring Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets.
Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 3 slate. Here is the full article with all of my takeaways and actionable advice.
For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 2’s action.
Notable Fantasy Football Snap Counts
From Week 2.
To prepare you for Week 3…
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 18, 2023
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Fantasy Football Forecast
Say it ain’t so Nick Chubb. Not like this. The Browns RB suffered a devasting knee injury on Monday night football, that will force him to miss the rest of the 2023 season. It’s a major blow to the Browns offense, as Chubb’s impact as one of the league’s most efficient rushers cannot be easily replicated. No. 2 running back Jerome Ford immediately caught a receiving TD after the Chubb injury, and the team leaned on him in the second half. He ripped off a big 69-yard run down to the 1-yard line on his first carry. He was replaced by former Patriots RB, Pierre Strong, at the goal line. Strong punched it in on his second carry.
Ford finished the second half with 12 carries for 100 yards (8.3 ypc). Obviously, he is the No.1 priority add this week on the waiver wire as the most logical in-house replacement for Chubb after playing 49% of the snaps on Monday night. He also caught three of four targets.
However, I’d imagine that the Browns bring in another body through trade or free agency. Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, and D’Ernest Johnson are all names worth stashing for zero-dollar bids on waivers this week just in case Cleveland makes another roster move in the wake of the Chubb injury.
As for the Browns pass-catchers, we saw the top-4 separate themselves. Each ran a route on at least 84% of dropbacks. Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore were each heavily targeted. Cooper (10, 25%) and Moore 9, 23%) saw ample opportunities, but Deshaun Watson‘s inaccuracy woes hurt his receivers’ efficiency. Moore caught just 3 for 27 yards. Cooper was better, catching seven for 90 after entering the game questionable with a groin injury.
Cooper owns a 25% target share and 36% air yard share through the first two weeks of the season. 7th in total raw air yards.
Without Chubb for the long haul, the team is going to have rely more on its passing game moving forward. Although it’s been underwhelming through two weeks, I think it’s worth going after Cooper/Moore with the idea that Watson steps up as the season progresses. Not better matchup than next week versus a horrible Titans secondary in Week 3 to dial up the passing game.
Buy Jahan Dotson
Sam Howell spread the wealth. Terry McLaurin led with 6 targets – 5 for 54 – and scored. But it was another quiet game for Jahan Dotson. 3 for 22 on 5 targets despite running the most routes. 9 different players saw at least 2 targets. Still through two games, Dotson is WR1 followed by Logan Thomas and McLaurin.
Still believe Dotson is an intriguing buy-low WR based on his metrics. Thomas missing time with a concussion could also lead to more looks for Dotson.