MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Thursday (9/28)

Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has only five games, starting at 7:07 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The suggested selections are whittled to two starting pitchers, one stack, three studs and three values/punts.

• Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart
• MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching is somewhat lackluster on tonight's main slate. Fortunately, the top pitcher has excellent home splits and a good matchup. The second-ranked pitcher is inconsistent but has a high ceiling.

Starting Pitcher Recommendations:

Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs. NYY
According to FanGraphs, in 102.1 innings at home this year, Bassitt has a 3.08 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, 7.9 BB% and 22.9 K%. The gap between his ERA and xFIP isn't ideal. Still, Bassitt has gotten the job done and has a good matchup tonight.

The Yankees are tied for 24th in wRC+ (89) and have a 24.0 K% versus righties in 2023. New York is 20th in wRC+ (92) and has 26.9 % in the previous 30 days. The Bronx Bombers are also 22nd in wRC+ (90) and have a 24.6 K% on the road this year.

The betting info is rock-solid, too. Per Betting Pros, the Blue Jays are -180, and the game's total is 9.0 runs.

Jesus Luzardo (MIA) at NYM
Luzardo is inconsistent. Nevertheless, he's pitched moderately well lately and has substantial upside for strikeouts. In his previous five starts spanning 28.0 innings, Luzardo has had a 3.54 ERA, 4.21 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, 10.3 BB%, 26.7 K%, 27.5 CSW% (12.9 SwStr%), 104 Stuff+, 99 Location+ and 100 Pitching+.

The matchup is OK, but the betting info is sweet. The Mets are 21st in wRC+ (95) and have a 22.0 K% versus lefties in 2023. New York is 13th in wRC+ (106) and has a 23.8 K% in the previous 30 days. They're also tied for 10th in wRC+ (108) and have a 22.0 K% at home this year. However, the Marlins are -130, and the game's total is only 7.5 runs.

Top Lineup Stack

• Home (Coors Field)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted

The Dodgers haven't announced a starter, but Roster Resource projects Ryan Yarbrough to get the nod. His 3.78 ERA in 24 appearances (eight starts) is much better than his 4.20 xERA and 4.55 xFIP. The veteran lefty also has an 18.4 K%. Yarbrough's pedestrian strikeout rate could bite him in the butt at hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Colorado's offense is lousy. Still, while they're 30th in wRC+ (78) at home this season, they're ninth in wOBA (.332), speaking to how much Coors Field inflates offense. The Rockies aren't a perfect stack, but they have upside and some affordable salaries.

• In 392 plate appearances against righties this year, Max Muncy has hit 25 homers with a .367 OBP, .290 ISO and 140 wRC+.
• Teoscar Hernandez has belted 27 bombs with a .356 OBP, .318 ISO and 170 wRC+ in 379 plate appearances against lefties since 2021.
• In 83 plate appearances against lefties at home in his career, Ezequiel Tovar has hit four dingers with a .306 OBP and .247 ISO. He's also the team's leadoff hitter.

• Elehuris Montero has mashed four taters with a .342 OBP, .257 ISO and .384 wOBA in 79 plate appearances against lefties at home in his career.
• In 191 plate appearances against lefties at Coors Field in his career, Brendan Rodgers has hit seven homers with a .387 OBP, .180 ISO and .385 wOBA.
• Elias Diaz has been on the Rockies since 2020. In 201 plate appearances against lefties at Coors Field since then, he's hit eight homers with a .323 OBP, .173 ISO and .330 wOBA.

Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Rockies offer a nice blend of upside and affordable salaries. Gamers can stack the Rockies with enough cap space left for studs such as Muncy and Hernandez.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.