MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Sunday (8/16)

Make sure to set your MLB DFS lineups early today to account for day games.

DraftKings’ main slate begins at 1:35 p.m. ET, and includes eight games. FanDuel’s main slate begins at the same time, and includes the same eight games. However, FanDuel also includes an additional game between the Cardinals and Cubs.

Make sure to set your MLB DFS lineups early today to account for day games.

Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (8/16)

PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
Sean Burke	$8,900	$10,100
Tanner Bibee	$7,600	$8,600
Andrew Painter	$5,500	$7,500

Over his last 10 starts, Sean Burke has 79 strikeouts to only 11 walks. That comes with a 1.60 ERA and 2.47 FIP. Strikeout-minus-walk rate is one of the clearest indicators of pitching dominance. Burke has moved himself all the way to the top 12 in baseball with his 20.5% mark.
Moving down the list, Tanner Bibee‘s game log features floor and ceiling performances. He’s gone over 25 FanDuel points in 12 of his last 15 games. Unfortunately, the three games he missed the mark in include a 16-point effort and two negative outings. That shows the volatility he offers, but that’s also built into his middling price. Bibee’s matchup today is against a hot offense in San Diego, but don’t be surprised if he delivers a surprisingly good start.
Meanwhile, since being recalled from the minor leagues, Andrew Painter has been closer to the version we expected when he was first called up as a top prospect. In his three starts since being back, he has 16 strikeouts in 15 innings with a 2.93 ERA. His 3.41 FIP is a bit higher, but it shows he is worth his price tag. Painter is the cheapest starting pitcher on DraftKings.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

New York Mets Projected Lineup (8/16)

POS	PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
OF	A.J. Ewing	$4,000	$3,000
SS	Francisco Lindor	$4,700	$3,200
3B/SS	Bo Bichette	$4,500	$2,900
OF	Carson Benge	$4,100	$3,000
1B/OF	Jared Young	$2,700	$2,500
2B	Marcus Semien	$3,500	$2,700
2B/OF/1B/3B	Brett Baty	$3,000	$2,600
2B/3B/1B (FD)	Jorge Polanco	$2,400	$2,500
C	Francisco Alvarez	$3,700	$2,700

Jake Irvin is starting today against the New York Mets. His 5.79 ERA is a bit higher than he deserves, based on a 4.85 FIP and 5.35 xERA. Even so, he’s definitely been hit hard, with a hard-hit hit rate and a 13% barrel rate. The Mets have already faced Irvin once this season. He only gave up two earned runs in four innings, but the Mets still scored seven runs.
This matchup is particularly interesting for Francisco Lindor, who has faced Irvin 23 times in his career. He has eight hits in those at-bats, with five going for extra bases, including a pair of home runs. Lindor has hit seven home runs in the second half of the season.
The “other” Francisco in the Mets lineup is Francisco Alvarez. He’s off to a strong start in the second half, and really is only an option against right-handed pitchers. He’s posted an .855 OPS in the second half of the season, which is only slightly better than his seasonal OPS against right-handed pitchers of .806.
Jared Young has become a strong side platoon bat for the Mets, and a good one. Against right-handed pitchers this season, he has 20 extra-base hits for an .826 OPS. He’s had very few at-bats against left-handed pitchers, but he has a mere .570 OPS against them. Irvin is right-handed.

Arizona Diamondbacks Projected Lineup (8/16)

POS	PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
SS	Geraldo Perdomo	$4,000	$3,000
OF	Corbin Carroll	$5,300	$3,600
C	Gabriel Moreno	$4,200	$3,000
2B	Ketel Marte	$4,900	$3,300
OF	Lars Nootbaar	$3,300	$2,700
3B	Nolan Arenado	$3,800	$2,900
OF	Max Kepler	$3,600	$2,400
1B/OF/2B	Tim Tawa	$2,700	$2,600
OF	Ryan Waldschmidt	$3,000	$2,700

For the second day in a row, the Arizona Diamondbacks are an offense to stack. Yesterday, they ended up scoring 10 runs on 13 hits. Today’s matchup is against Bryce Elder. After Elder yielded seven earned runs in his most recent start, his ERA has almost caught up to his ERA indicators. His ERA is 4.03, and he has 4.08 xERA and 4.58 FIP.
Yesterday’s picks were so strong that it’s hard not to go back to the well. We have to start with Corbin Carroll. While he didn’t hit a home run yesterday, he did record a double and a triple, with a pair of walks and a run. There are just many ways he can return value.
Another recommendation from yesterday was Nolan Arenado. Hopefully, you listened to that one, as he went 2-for-4 with a pair of home runs. That brings his season total to 20 home runs for the first time since 2023. He’s already hit six home runs in August.
Tim Tawa was the punt play yesterday. He finished the game 2-5 with a run and an RBI. You could certainly go back to him again. Or consider Lars Nootbaar. He was moved to the leadoff spot yesterday, which offers more value due to the additional opportunities.

Core Studs

POS	PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
3B	Jose Ramirez	$5,600	$3,400
OF	Kyle Schwarber	$6,200	$4,100
1B	Matt Olson	$5,400	$3,900

Casey Mize was recently traded to the San Diego Padres. He was probably excited that he was going to have a reprieve from facing Jose Ramirez in the American League Central, but that didn’t end up lasting long. Ramirez has gone 6-for-14 against Mize in his career, with a pair of home runs.
Dean Kremer has been unlucky with 21% of his fly balls turning into home runs. Eventually, that will pull back to a more normal level, but Kremer gives up a lot of fly balls with only a 36.6% groundball rate. That means the possibility of a lot of home runs. Kyle Schwarber is the most likely Phillies bat to take advantage.
Matt Olson already has 10 home runs in the second half, which puts him in the top 10 of slugging rate in the second half. His matchup today is against Michael Soroka.

Value Plays/Punts

POS	PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
3B	Ryan McMahon	$2,700	$2,500
2B/SS/OF	Chase Meidroth	$3,800	$3,200
1B/OF	Griffin Conine	$3,600	$3,100

It’s quite surprising to see Ryan McMahon‘s success against Dylan Cease. McMahon has gone 6-for-14 against Cease with three extra-base hits, including a pair of home runs.
I don’t necessarily believe Chase Meidroth is suddenly a power hitter, but you can’t deny that he has been one in the second half of the season. His .598 slugging rate in the second half is eighth among qualified batters. He’s already had five multi-hit games in August.
Griffin Conine doesn’t have the at-bats to qualify, but if he did, we’d be talking about the power breakout he is having. In just over 150 at-bats, he has an average exit velocity of 92.5 miles per hour (MPH). That has boosted his hard-hit rate (55.9%) and barrel rate (17.9%) into elite territories. He’s already hit four home runs in August.

Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Freddy Peralta (SP – TBR): 4.5 Hits Allowed — Higher

Are we really that confident in the Rays’ pitching coaches to turn around Freddy Peralta that quickly? Part of it is that Baltimore is in a bit of an offensive lull right now, with a .225 team batting average over the past 30 days.

Still, this feels like a low number. Peralta has given up at least five hits in 12 of his last 14 starts. He’s exceeded this number in his last four starts, including both outings with the Rays.

Heliot Ramos (OF – NYY): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Lower

Heliot Ramos‘s Yankees debut couldn’t have gotten off to a much worse start, going 2-for-32. If you’re looking for a silver lining, it’s that both of his hits went for doubles.

However, Ramos has yet to record either a run or an RBI. Perhaps a better way to state this would be that Ramos has failed to clear this number in all 10 of his games as a Yankee.

Logan Henderson (SP – MIL): 5.5 Strikeouts — Higher

Logan Henderson has already made one start this season against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In that game, he went five innings and struck out seven batters. He’s in a stretch of four games in which he’s struck out at least seven batters.