let’s roll out the red carpet for the 2023 Usage Report for Week 4, to prepare for success in Week 5. The Fantasy Football Week 5 Rankings Forecast featuring Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets.
Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 5 slate.
For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 4’s action…
Along with snap counts…
Note the bye weeks for Week 5:
- Cleveland Browns
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Seattle Seahawks
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
And stay ahead of the game for Week 6 bye weeks:
- Green Bay Packers
- Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Football Forecast
Seattle Seahawks
Hold Kenneth Walker, Add Zach Charbonnet, Sell Tyler Lockett, Buy Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Seattle’s offense wasn’t asked to do too much given the lack of offense generated by the Giants. Geno Smith left briefly with a leg injury but returned in the second half. Kenneth Walker maintained his high-end usage, playing 71% of the snaps to go along with 79 rushing yards and 1 TD. KW3 was bottled up in the first half – 9 for 19 – but ripped off two 15-plus yard rushes in the second half.
The one bad thing about his usage – zero targets despite running a route on 50% of the dropbacks. Meanwhile, Zach Charbonnet was targeted on three of his 5 routes run. The rookie played 24% of the snaps. He’s starting to eat more into Walker’s receiving role, but it’s not impacting the starter’s production. Walker is still getting all the TD equity. He remains a hold through the bye week with Cincy and Arizona shortly after.
Suggested selling Tyler Lockett last week and that looks like a sharp move.
One would figure we get an expanded role for Jaxon Smith-Njigba post the bye week. Because through four weeks, Lockett has done pretty much nothing outside of two TDs in Week 2. JSN’s routes increased in Week 4 (75% route participation) versus Weeks 1-3 (63%). He also tied Lockett for the team-lead Iin targets (6).
Look for JSN to hit waivers after a slow start to his rookie year with Seattle on bye. Take advantage and stash him. Could easily be a league-winner down the stretch.
New York Giants
Add Wan’Dale Robinson, Buy Darren Waller
This offense cannot get out of its own way. Slow starts and bad offensive line play have really set their team back. 10 sacks were taken by Daniel Jones on Monday night. Makes most of the players tough to trust for fantasy football.
But we will start with the lone bright spot, second-year WR Wan’Dale Robinson. He ran a route on 63% of the dropbacks (2nd) and played 64% of the snaps. Both are big boosts from Week 3. He’s the slot starter in this offense and continues to vacuum up targets when he’s on the field.
41 routes run with 11 targets (27% target rate per route run) this season Add him off waivers. He’s got targets coming his way with Miami and Buffalo up next.
Rookie WR Jalin Hyatt also saw his snaps increase (60%) at the expense of Isaiah Hodgins. After Hodgins and Parris Campbell opened the year as starters in three WR sets, they have lost their jobs to younger WRs on the Giants offense.
Darren Waller was disappointing again, as he has been in all but one game this season. I think his lack of production is tied more to the offensive struggles overall, rather than him individually. He caught all 3 of his targets for 21 yards while tying Darius Slayton for the team lead in routes run (86%). Still a buy-low target solely based on his usage and status as the No. 1 receiver in his offense.
Matt Breida was a bell cow in Saquon Barkley‘s absence – 19 touches and 73% snap share. Continue to start him as long as Barkley misses time.
Dallas Cowboys
Buy Tony Pollard, Hold Jake Ferguson, Add Rico Dowdle/Deuce Vaughn, Sell CeeDee Lamb
Dak Prescott showcased his skills, throwing for 261 yards on 28 completions and one touchdown.
Tight end Jake Ferguson was Prescott’s primary target, catching all 7 passes thrown his way for 77 yards. The way he is hyper-targeted by Dak, along with awesome red-zone usage, makes Fergy a reliable weekly TE start. Leads NFL in red-zone targets (dropped a TD versus the Patriots) and ranks second on the team with 25 targets through four games.
Michael Gallup also contributed significantly with 60 receiving yards on 6 targets. Back-to-back strong outings from Gallup after a slow start. Might need to push him over Brandin Cooks as WR2.
As for CeeDee Lamb, I think he’s a sell-high after he scored. As the No. 1 WR for the Cowboys, Lamb has hardly been a true difference maker that was selected at the Round 1 turn. Just a 22% target share for the year. Outside the top 35. And only one game with more than four catches.
In the running game, Tony Pollard provided a spark with 47 rushing yards on just 11 carries, while adding three targets. He still hasn’t scored – amid the Dallas offense red-zone struggles – but eventually, he’ll hit paydirt. He has 31 red zone touches in four games. Hasn’t scored since Week 1.
Also, ignore the final snap count for Pollard. The blow-out win had just five touches in the 2nd half.
If somebody is getting frustrated with Pollard, you gladly take him off their hands with a trade.
Rico Dowdle left with an injury, so just monitor his status as that would elevate Deuce Vaughn to RB2.
Dallas faces SF next week.
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