Welcome to my fantasy football breakdown of the 2026 NFL Draft’s first round, where dreams were made for 32 bright-eyed rookies, and the chessboard of professional football is reset with fresh, ambitious talent.
In this featured piece recapping round one, I will delve into the immediate impact of the newly minted rookies and how their arrival alters the dynamics for veteran players within their teams.
From soaring fantasy football stocks of rookies poised to make a significant mark in their debut seasons to veterans who might find their positions threatened or bolstered by these young additions, we’ll explore who emerged as the winners and losers of this pivotal day in the NFL calendar.
Join me as we break down the changing landscapes of NFL squads and assess the potential shifts in strategy and performance prompted by this year’s Day 1 selections.
- 2026 NFL Draft Guide
- 2026 NFL Draft Scouting Reports
- Best Fantasy Football Tools
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Drafts
2026 NFL Draft Winners & Losers | Fantasy Football
2026 NFL Draft Round 1 Winners
Rookies in prime landing spots
Fernando Mendoza (QB – LV)
The 6-foot-5 and 236-pound QB is officially a Las Vegas Raider. After his breakout season with Indiana, Las Vegas selected him first overall to make him their future franchise QB.
In 2025, he finished first in the class in on-target rate (81 percent), pass completion over expectation (+12 percent), and in overall completion rate (72 percent) per Sports Info Solutions.
According to ESPN Research, he overthrew or underthrew his receiver on just 7.1 percent of pass attempts in 2025, the third-lowest rate in the FBS. He completed 54 percent of his passes on throws 20-plus yards downfield, fourth best. Sticks his throws outside the numbers.
He’s a great decision-maker with a high football IQ and a clutch gene. Watching him, he reminded me of Kirk Cousins, who just so happens to be his new teammate.
At times, Mendoza can hold onto the ball too long and take sacks. He can rely too much on his first read (sixth in Passing Grade on 1st read, 25th in Passing Grade beyond 1st read) via CFB Dalton.
However, his fit in Klint Kubiak’s offense should alleviate some of these concerns.
Sam Darnold posted a career low in pressure-to-sack percentage with Kubiak last year and was top-12 in throwaways on an offense that ranked 29th in pass attempts per game.
Mendoza should also help boost the Raiders’ offense overall – especially in the red zone. 27 TDs and zero INTs in the red zone last season.
We should see a more efficient and concentrated offense with Kubiak. Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty should feast. Just getting healthier across the offensive line will see this unit play dramatically better in 2026. Factor in Kubiak’s scheme, and we could really see Ashton Jeanty shine in Year 2. Brock Bowers might get the Jaxon-Smith Njigba treatment with favorable looks all over the formation.
In the fallout of free agency, the Raiders are just one more tackle away from a completed rebuild. And they should be able to draft that player at the top of the second round.
The other Raiders WRs/TEs are just supporting cast members.
Just a matter of when the Raiders turn to Mendoza over Cousins.
Kubiak seems to like the idea of sitting a young quarterback behind a veteran. If Kubiak isn’t confident in the offensive line/run game, he might not opt to throw a rookie signal-caller into the fire. Cousins makes a lot of sense as the veteran bridge quarterback who could start until they want to play Mendoza. Cousins signed a five-year deal with the Raiders, but it’s really just a one-year deal, given that the guaranteed money is only good for 2026.
I’d imagine that Cousins will be allowed to start, given how he knows the offense, but for how long remains TBD. He will be 38 years old this season. His 6.4 YPA and 84.8 passer rating were the second-lowest of his career last season (same with aDOT). He doesn’t have the same power in his throws since his Achilles injury. 29th in EPA/play, 26th in success rate, 28th in completion rate, 32nd in YPA. Aside from completion rate (because Penix pushed the ball downfield), Cousins was the second-best QB in Atlanta last year.
It’s very much possible he is totally cooked, and Mendoza doesn’t have to wait very long to take over. I thought it would be more around 8-9 weeks until the rookie took over, but now I feel it will be much closer to 3-4 games (also dependent on the Raiders’ scheduled bye week). If Cousins couldn’t hold off Michael Penix for an entire season, he probably is an underdog to hold off Mendoza for half a season.
Newcomer WR Jalen Nailor did play with Cousins for two years in Minnesota.
Carnell Tate (WR – TEN)
In somewhat of a surprising move (although if I had just stuck to my original mock draft, I would have gotten another one right), Carnell Tate went 4th overall to the Tennessee Titans. Robert Saleh was the head coach of the Jets when they drafted former Ohio State wideout Garrett Wilson 10th overall. He won Offensive Rookie of the Year.
And unlike with some projected landing spots before Thursday night, Tate slides into an offense where he can emerge as the true No. 1 alpha WR. And there’s a lot of upside here attached to second-year QB Cam Ward, in an offense led by new OC Brian Daboll.
Daboll obviously loves Wan’Dale Robinson, so Tate might not have bonkers target share from the jump, but his path to WR1 status is clearly in reach.
I am kicking myself for not putting Jordyn Tyson with the Saints in my final mock draft. New Orleans. Football founder Nick Underhill was pounding the drum for Tyson to the Saints after recognizing the routes he ran at Arizona State were the same routes Tyler Shough was throwing to.
So the fit is great in Kellen Moore’s offense. And there should be plenty of volume. Last year, before Rashid Shaheed got traded to Seattle, both Chris Olave and he were seeing a ton of volume (combining for 17 targets per game). Shaheed was 15th in the NFL in WR targets (Weeks 1-9).
This is a fast-paced up-tempo offense. In a dome. Popcorn acquired.
I think this is a sneaky situation where Tyson could be the 1B to Olave’s 1A.
The ceiling remains sky-high for a healthy Tyson, and I think his status as the “No.2” will keep his price relatively in check.
Keep this in mind for both Tate and Tyson as our two WRs who went inside the top-10 since 2021 (nine WRs drafted).
90% have been WR3s at worst.
56% cracking top-24.
Ja’Marr Chase and Malik Nabers best-case scenarios.
The modern NFL gets rookie WRs on the field faster and feeds them targets, especially when they are top-10 picks.
KC Concepcion (WR – CLE)
One of my few correct picks in my final mock draft was KC Concepcion to the Browns at 24th overall. I think this is a great fit for the player. There’s an opportunity for targets and routes in the offense. Jerry Jeudy has an out in his contract in 2027.
So we could easily look up and see Concepcion as the bona fide WR1 in Cleveland as soon as 2027 (if not even earlier after Jeudy’s down year).
Todd Monken is the new HC of the Browns, and Concepcion has the chance to be the “Zay Flowers” in his 2026 offense. Flowers was drafted in nearly the same spot (22nd overall) three years ago, and several have compared Concepcion’s play style to Flowers (with the latter weighing 14 pounds more).
Obviously, the QB play is the main concern in Cleveland (both short and long term). But the staff has completely restructured the offensive line. And Sheduer Sanders was still able to fuel fantasy football success for Harold Fannin last year despite a patchwork offensive line.
Also, the fact that Concepcion can create so much on his own (YAC-god) suggests he can overcome some shoddy QB play.
Ty Simpson (QB – LAR)
One of the biggest shockers of Night 1 had to be Ty Simpson going to the Rams. Now, the fact that Simpson went to LA at all isn’t crazy. We saw several reports about how the Rams’ brass was interested in Simpson (part of why there was a connection with Simpson to the Cardinals, given the current HC previously worked under Sean McVay).
But 13th overall seemed very rich for a team looking to be all-in on a Super Bowl run. I don’t love the move for that reason – but I understand where the Rams are coming from. They don’t want to pick this high again (got picked from the Falcons), so this could really be their only chance to find an heir apparent/successor to Matthew Stafford.
Real-life NFL implications aside, this is a major win for Simpson’s dynasty value.
Simply put, if the former Alabama QB takes over for Stafford, and Sean McVay stays around as the Rams HC, it’s easy to see the appeal. The Rams coaching staff also has Kliff Kingsbury, who has had success with younger quarterbacks.
We know QBs represent currency in Superflex, and Simpson seems like an asset destined to accrue value a year from now.
No player will see a bigger rise post-draft than Jadarian Price. Rumored to be a potential late first-round pick at 32 by the Seahawks, that’s exactly how the board shook out in Round 1.
It was the perfect storm for Price. The lack of talent in the RB class and Seattle’s lack of picks (failed to trade back) forced them into the RB with the final selection on Thursday night.
Circumstances boosted Price up the draft board, and I am just concerned his price will continue to skyrocket to unrealistic expectations. The “first-round” draft capital seems a tad fabricated, given the Seahawks were very open about wanting to trade down.
Zach Charbonnet is coming off a very poorly timed ACL injury on January 19th (surgery a month later on February 20th). Although the discourse surrounding Charbonnet’s injury has been generally positive.
He carved out a role alongside Kenneth Walker, and I’d imagine he would do the same when he returns to the field.
Seattle also signed Emanuel Wilson this offseason, who I presume will mostly be viewed as a complete afterthought. After all, he did sign just a one-year, $2.1 million contract (yikes).
Wilson is 5-foot-10 and 226 pounds, providing the “thunder” to Price’s “lightning” at 5-foot-11 and 203 pounds.
And more importantly, he does dirty work that coaches LOVE. I thought pre-draft that he would be a thorn in the side of whichever rookie RB landed in Seattle. I still feel that way.
Full acknowledgment that Price hit the lottery landing spot – but overvaluing the situation in Seattle (in a new offense post-Klint Kubiak) feels somewhat risky.
The hit rate of RBs drafted late in Round 1 has also not been kind in recent years (especially compared to the first half of Round 1 RBs.
From a dynasty context, I understand you might just have to pay the premium “price”. RBs with this draft capital are a dime a dozen.
But in redraft…Price feels like he will be way too expensive.
Veterans:
QBs With Upgraded Personnel:
- Browns QBs
- Jaxson Dart (QB – NYG)
- Malik Willis (QB – MIA)
- Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
- Jared Goff (QB – DET)
- Bryce Young (QB – CAR)
- Geno Smith (QB – NYJ)
- Cam Ward (QB – TEN)
- Tyler Shough (QB – NO)
- Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
- CJ Stroud (QB – HOU)
- Drake Maye (QB – NE)
RBs who didn’t get Nuked by Notre Dame RBs:
- Tony Pollard (RB – TEN)
- Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN)
- Cam Skattebo (RB – NYG)
- Rachaad White (RB – WAS)
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB – WAS)
- David Montgomery (RB – HOU)
WRs/TEs without additional competition from a Round 1 pass-catcher
- Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)
- Rashee Rice (RB – KC)
- Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)
- Chig Okonwkwo (TE – WAS)
- Davante Adams (WR – LAR)
- Jordan Addison (WR – MIN)
2026 NFL Draft Round 1 Losers
Rookies in an unfavorable spot
Jeremiyah Love (RB – ARI)
We have the potential of looking at another Ashton Jeanty 2.0 situation after the Arizona Cardinals selected Jeremiyah Love with the third overall pick. Of all the places he could have gone (Titans, Giants, Commanders, etc.), I think Arizona is the worst of the bunch.
First off, Tyler Allgeier isn’t just going to disappear. He is an effective power back and carved out a role alongside arguably the best RB in the NFL during his time in Atlanta. And where does he often see the majority of his touches? The red zone.
I’ve always been a strong believer in Allgeier since his days at BYU. He produced over 1,000 rushing yards as a fifth-round rookie, and just fell victim to circumstances with the Falcons taking Bijan Robinson in 2023.
According to the Athletic, Allgeier is sixth in the NFL in rushing success rate (42 percent) and 11th in EPA per rush (0.01) among all running backs, according to TruMedia. He is also one of three running backs with more than 500 carries in the last four seasons who have not fumbled the ball. He has zero career fumbles. In 2025, he made his biggest impact in the red zone with eight rushing TDs. At 221 pounds and just 737 total NFL touches on his resume, the 26-year-old RB still projects for decent volume in 2026.
Allgeier has been the epitome of health throughout his four-year NFL career. Worth noting that last year’s goal-line RB, Zonovan Knight, signed a one-year deal to return to Arizona.
Not good.
Second, Arizona has QB problems. Jacoby Brissett is holding out. Gardner Minshew is the next man up. Ty Simpson is a Ram. The offense could struggle with Brissett and/or Minshew under center if they aren’t attempting 45-plus passes a game.
Third, the offensive line. They still have a major hole at right tackle.
Now the majority of these are Year 1 issues (hence the comp to Jeanty in 2025). And now things look much better for Jeanty entering his second season. So there’s time for Love, so I’m not ready to move off him as the 1.01 in rookie rankings.
Keep in mind that one of Breece Hall’s best seasons came with new Cardinals OC Nathiel Hackett as the Jets’ OC in 2023 (Hall was fantasy’s RB2).
And as I noted in my “How to Value Rookie RBs in Fantasy Football: Pre-NFL Draft (2026)” article, RBs with this elite draft capital possess very high floors.
78 percent of top-12 RBs finish top-12 in Year 1.
2026 probably won’t be the ceiling for Love. That is for certain. But it’s not enough to completely adjust priors and dramatically decrease his dynasty rank (even if he needs to be knocked down a few spots in the overall and RB dynasty rankings).
Kenyon Sadiq (TE – NYJ)
I tried to be open to the possibilities of Kenyon Sadiq being in an “okay” spot with the New York Jets after being selected 16th overall. Then, the team drafted WR Omar Cooper Jr. late in Round 1 (30th overall), creating a very crowded situation for the former Oregon tight end to make an immediate impact.
Garrett Wilson is the entrenched alpha, and last year’s second-round pick, tight end Mason Taylor, is a player that Aaron Glenn is excited about taking a step in Year 2.
Just makes it hard to find where Sadiq fits into this offense for Year 1. Not to mention, the tight end coach, Alfredo Roberts, is coming over from Pittsburgh, where they used so many TEs that none could be viable fantasy football assets. Also hardly got the most out of Jonnu Smith this past year (often compared to Sadiq).
And if the Jets do what we all expect to happen (fire Glenn, hire a new offensive-minded HC), we are back at level 1 with Sadiq.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Sadiq have a Terrance Ferguson-like rookie season behind two WRs and a veteran TE for targets. Somebody gave a comparison of Buffalo’s Dawson Knox/Dalton Kincaid.
The redraft appeal is low, and the dynasty appeal is strictly player-based (first-round draft capital is excellent) because the outlook no longer projects favorably. Sadiq has to fall considerably in rookie rankings. But there’s a case to buy if the price fall becomes too dramatic. Because a lot of the time, we overreact to a “bad” landing spot.
The Jets offense can be average with a good offensive line. I think Geno can sling it. He’s not one of these older guys coming off a torn Achilles. Smith was seventh in completion rate from a clean pocket in 2025. The situation crumbled around him last year. Brock Bowers and OL gutted by injuries.
Veterans:
QBs Without Upgraded Personnel:
RB who got Nuked by Jeremiyah Love/Jadarian Price:
- Tyler Allegeir (RB – ARI)
- Zach Charbonnet (RB – SEA)
The saving grace for these two RBs is that they each carved out roles inside the red zone in their respective offenses.
WRs/TEs with additional competition from a Round 1 pass-catcher
- Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – NYG)
- Isaiah Likely (TE – NYG)
- Chris Olave (WR – NO)
- Juwan Johnson (TE – NO)
- Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
- Mason Taylor (TE – NYJ)
- Jerry Jeudy (WR – CLE)
- Harold Fannin (TE – CLE)
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