The Sunday Night Football game will likely be ugly. The host Bills are favored by more than two touchdowns, and the Giants are badly injured on the offensive line, saying nothing of Daniel Jones being ruled out. The suggested players, lineup constructions and Captain/MVP choices lean heavily toward the favorites, with saving salary as one of the crucial considerations when picking players from the Giants.
Game: New York Giants at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -15.0
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Giants Analysis: The Giants are 15.0-point underdogs and will almost certainly need to chuck it to keep pace -- or at least try. Still, it's difficult to imagine Tyrod Taylor succeeding behind Big Blue's makeshift offensive line. So, spending significant cap space on Darren Waller or Saquon Barkley, if he plays, is ill-advised.
Instead, Darius Slayton, Wan'Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt are more appealing selections. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Slayton's 78 routes since Week 4 trail only Waller's 86 for Big Blue. He's a fixture on the field in New York's wide receiver rotation. Slayton has averaged an underwhelming 2.6 receptions per game and 33.4 receiving yards per game this year but has big-play potential and ideal route participation.
Still, Robinson is the most appealing pick from the Giants. In the previous two weeks, the diminutive second-year slot wideout was tied for third on the club in routes (56). Yet, he was peppered with the second-most targets (12) and had 10 receptions, albeit for a paltry 58 yards. Robinson is a more appealing selection at DraftKings than FanDuel since the former awards a full point per reception rather than a half-point per reception at the latter.
Hyatt had only two receptions for 10 yards in the last two weeks. Furthermore, the speedy rookie has just four receptions for 99 yards on five targets this year. He's a speed demon, though. Moreover, Hyatt ran 56 routes since Week 4, more than Isaiah Hodgins (35 routes) and Parris Campbell (29) ran in those contests.
Like Slayton, Hyatt has stellar route participation, giving him a chance to score points on any play, especially if the mobile Taylor can evade pass rushers and fling it deep to his field-stretching rookie. Perhaps most importantly, Hyatt is the cheapest viable option from the Giants, opening up valuable cap space for the heavily favored Bills.
Bills Analysis: Since Josh Allen puked all over himself in Week 1, he's spectacularly rebounded. Allen's completed 73.9% of his 134 pass attempts for 1,171 yards, 10 touchdowns and two interceptions in four subsequent games, chipping in 84 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns for good measure. He's the focal point of Buffalo's offense and a no-brainer selection.
Stefon Diggs is also in the no-brainer category. He's one of the most productive wideouts in the NFL and paces the Bills in targets (50), receptions per game (7.8), receiving yards per game (104.0) and touchdown receptions (four).
In addition, he's Buffalo's best answer for beating New York's man-heavy coverage. According to PFF, Big Blue plays man coverage at the fifth-highest rate (32.2%) this season. Diggs leads the Bills in targets (15), receptions (12), receiving yards (177) and touchdown receptions (three) against man coverage this year.
Gabe Davis isn't a must-use player. However, he's Buffalo's No. 2 passing-game weapon, ranking second on the club in routes (173), targets (26), receptions per game (3.6), receiving yards per game (64.0) and touchdown receptions (four).
The field-stretching wideout is shaky against man coverage. He was second on the team in targets (26) and receiving yards (155) against man coverage in 2022 but only had 11 receptions and 0.76 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR). Encouragingly, Davis has played better against man coverage this year, converting seven targets into four receptions, 93 receiving yards and 1.75 Y/RR.
Dalton Kincaid (concussion) and Dawson Knox (wrist) are questionable. If one suits up and the other is out, the healthy tight end is the third-most appealing pass-catching option for the Bills since they could consolidate the receiving work at the position. Kincaid ran 133 routes through the first five weeks, and Knox nipped at his heels with 130. They've cannibalized each other's work. If both suit up, they're viable options in Buffalo's pass-heavy attack. If Kincaid and Knox are inactive, Quintin Morris is an adequate but unexciting minimum salary punt at DK.
Deonte Harty is the most alluring wideout behind Diggs and Davis. He's an OK pick if Kincaid and Knox play. Yet, he's an exciting choice if either or both are ruled out. Harty was an efficient, big-play weapon for the Saints in 2021. Sadly, he's been a gadget player for the Bills, averaging only 2.2 receptions per game and 20.0 receiving yards per game.
Harty's per-game averages are also misleading. His season high for scrimmage yards was only 13 before Week 5. The Bills have pumped him targets behind the line of scrimmage (six) and short (four targets zero to nine yards downfield). Harty was a vertical weapon with the Saints and hauled in a deep pass for a 43-yard reception last week. So, maybe the successful deep reception last week will encourage offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to dial up more shot plays to him from now on, starting this week against the Giants.
Buffalo's running-back stable is in the mix on the showdown slate. James Cook is the top running back on the club, owning 59.8% of the backfield's rush share and averaging 58.4 rushing yards per game, 4.8 yards per carry, 2.8 receptions per game and 28.0 receiving yards per game.
Latavius Murray and Damien Harris are more imposing physical complements to the slender, speedy Cook. If the Bills blow the doors off the Giants, Murray or Harris could be asked to salt the game away. The former has rushed 19 times, and the latter has toted the rock 22 times this season.
Cook, Murray and Harris are all threats to find paydirt since the Bills have used each near the end zone. Inside the five-yard line this year, Harris and Cook each have three rush attempts and zero targets, and Murray has four rushes and one target.
Again, Cook is the most exciting option in Buffalo's backfield and has the highest ceiling. Still, Murray and Harris are viable bargain options because of the high probability of a blowout. They all also have a mouthwatering matchup. According to The 33rd Team, the G-Men have allowed 135.8 rushing yards per game, 5.3 yards per carry and seven rushing touchdowns to running backs this year.
Buffalo's DST is a high-ceiling pick against New York's injury-ravaged offensive line. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bills have the highest pressure rate (32.6%), the most sacks (21) and have forced the most turnovers (13) this season. They can pin their ears up and rack up fantasy points when staked to a lead.
Final Thoughts: Allen is the best Captain/MVP, with Diggs as the only alternative I'll use. Stacking one or even two of Buffalo's running backs with the Bills DST in the flex is appealing. Finally, onslaught lineups with only one player from the Giants will be chalky but are the best lineup construction for this slate.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
