This piece is part of our article program, featuring quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
After missing last week, I’m back for Week 5. With byes starting this week, our player pool has shrunk, and now finding values is not only more important, but it’s also more difficult to find. There are still a few players I think are priced wrong, mainly on DraftKings, so let’s get to it…
NFL DFS Value Picks to Target: Week 5
Quarterback
DraftKings
Joshua Dobbs (ARI) vs. CIN $5,200
This piece is part of our article program, featuring quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
After missing last week, I’m back for Week 5. With byes starting this week, our player pool has shrunk, and now finding values is not only more important, but it’s also more difficult to find. There are still a few players I think are priced wrong, mainly on DraftKings, so let’s get to it…
NFL DFS Value Picks to Target: Week 5
Quarterback
DraftKings
Joshua Dobbs (ARI) vs. CIN $5,200
Dobbs has put up three straight games with at least 17 fantasy points, using not only his arm but his legs, as he has 24 rushes for 141 yards and a TD on the season. He gets a matchup this weekend against the Bengals, ranked 19th in pass defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and 25th overall (per FTN). At $5,200, he doesn’t need to do much to hit value, and — while he doesn’t offer huge upside — his price opens up salary for other positions.
Others to Consider: C.J. Stroud (HOU) $6,000 | Joe Burrow (CIN) $6,200
Fanduel
Joe Burrow (CIN) @ ARI $7,000
To say Burrow and the Bengals have not played well this season is an understatement, but a matchup with the 30th-ranked pass defense in the Cardinals, who give up the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs (per FTN), is just what the doctor ordered. I’m looking for the Bengals to get their offense on track in this game, and Burrow will never be $7k again this season.
Others to Consider: Joshua Dobbs (ARI) $6,600
Running Back
DraftKings
Breece Hall (NYJ) @ DEN $5,400
The mantra this season has been, play your running backs against Denver. No team gives up more fantasy points to running backs than the Broncos (43.5), and only two teams give up more receiving yards to the position. The Jets have removed any restrictions from Breece Hall, and while Dalvin Cook is still there to steal a few touches, he has not looked explosive, averaging 2.5 yards per carry through the first four weeks. It’s Breece Hall week, don’t miss out.
Others to Consider: Devon Achane (MIA) $6,100 | D’Andre Swift (PHI) $6,000
Fanduel
James Connor (ARI) vs. CIN $6,500
Only the 49ers have been able to hold Connor under double-digit fantasy points through four weeks, and the Lions and Jets are the only two teams ranked lower than the Bengals in rush DVOA. Connor will continue to get all the work out of the Cardinals’ backfield, and with the Vegas line at a mere three points, the game should stay relatively close to ensure Connor isn’t game-scripted out.
Others to Consider: James Cook (BUF) $$6,700 | Breece Hall (NYJ) $6,500
Wide Receiver
DraftKings
Nico Collins (HOU) @ ATL $5,600
Excluding the game against the Jags, Collins has had at least nine targets in every game this season, and the Falcons are 27th in pass DVOA headed into this Week 5 matchup. His price tag of $5,600 is a bit disrespectful as Collins is blossoming into a legit WR1 in the NFL and fantasy. This is as cheap as you will ever get him.
Others to Consider: Michael Wilson (ARI) $3,700 | Adam Thielen (CAR) $5,100
Fanduel
Zay Flowers (BAL) @ PIT $5,900
Fanduel did a great job with their pricing this week on their WRs, and I had a hard time finding a value player I truly liked. Ultimately, I landed on Flowers. The Steelers give up the fourth-most points to WRs on the year and rank 28th against a team’s WR2, which, despite his usage, Flowers lines up as the WR2 in this offense.
Others to Consider: Michael Thomas (NO) $5,700 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) $5,500
Tight End
DraftKings
Jonnu Smith (ATL) vs. HOU $2,900
With 20 targets over his last three games, Jonnu Smith is the TE1 in this offense, not Kyle Pitts. Pitts is somehow $400 more expensive based on his name value. Unfortunately, name value has never scored fantasy points. The Texans are in the bottom third of the league defending the tight end position (20th DVOA vs. TEs per FTN), and he is the lowest-priced tight end I’d feel comfortable plugging into my lineups.
Others to Consider: Hayden Hurst (CAR) $3,100
Fanduel
Kylen Granson (IND) vs. TEN $4,600
Fanduel once again has done a great job with pricing, leaving us with very little good value to choose from. If you’re playing on Fanduel, you will likely be living in the mid-tier or paying all the up for Travis Kelce. However, if you wanted to punt the position, you could do worse than Granson. The Titans are middle of the pack when it comes to defending the tight end (13th DVOA vs. TEs per FTN), and Granson has had at least four targets in every game this season.
Defense
DraftKings
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. BAL $2,700
The chalk defense this week is probably the Titans, but I’m willing to pay up a little more to get the Steelers. The Ravens and Steelers games are typically low-scoring, hard-fought games, and Lamar Jackson is still prone to take sacks and turn the ball over at times. And if we want to play the narrative, the Steelers got embarrassed last week by the Texans and will come out angry and ready to take it out on their rivals.
Fanduel
Houston Texans @ ATL $3,600
Again, the Titans are probably the chalk defense, but a close second is the Texans in a matchup with the Falcons. Desmond Ridder does not look like an NFL QB through four weeks, and the Texans are coming in with two straight double-digit fantasy games against much better teams in the Jags and Steelers.
