The Chargers are in New Jersey to close Week 9 as slight favorites against the Jets. There are a few superstars on each team. However, the game’s total is small because of an elite defense and a lousy quarterback. Gamers can attack this slate in many ways.
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets
Spread: LAC -3.5
Over/Under: 40.0 Points
Chargers Analysis: According to RotoViz's pace app, the Chargers have passed on 59% of their 138 plays in a neutral game script since Week 6. Usually, Justin Herbert would be an exciting pick. The excitement is dampened by a matchup against New York's elite pass defense, though. Gang Green was a nightmare matchup for Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts.
They'll make Herbert's sledding tough tonight, but he's the quarterback of the betting favorite in this game. Furthermore, Herbert does a great job of avoiding sacks and turnovers. So, it's not as if facing him is a cupcake matchup for the Jets. Herbert averages 270.0 passing yards per game with 13 touchdown passes and only four interceptions this year.
Keenan Allen is the top pass-catching weapon on the Chargers. Like Herbert, he has a suboptimal matchup. Nonetheless, Allen is a productive target hog. He's eighth among wide receivers in target share (30.0%) and averages 7.7 receptions per game and 91.9 receiving yards per game with five touchdowns (four receiving and one passing) this season. Allen is talented enough to overcome the matchup, but he's not a bust-proof pick.
Austin Ekeler is the most exciting option from the Chargers. New York's opponents have rushed on 52% of their 245 plays in a neutral game script since Week 4. They also are a decent matchup for running backs, permitting them 99.5 rushing yards per game, 4.1 yards per carry, one rushing touchdown, 6.25 receptions per game, 50.0 receiving yards per game and two receiving touchdowns since Week 4. Ekeler hasn't been efficient on the ground lately, but he's handled 70.5% of the backfield's rush share since Week 6.
Ekeler is also still a weapon in the passing attack, averaging 4.0 receptions per game and 44.3 receiving yards per game with one touchdown reception in four games this season. The Chargers might need more from him in the passing attack this week, with Joshua Palmer ruled out.
Joshua Kelley, Simi Fehoko and Derius Davis are LA's most intriguing punts. Kelley could see additional work if the Chargers lean more heavily on their running game against the Jets. He faceplanted in three starts but succeeded as a change-of-pace option when Ekeler was healthy. In Ekeler's four healthy contests, Kelley had 30 rush attempts for 189 yards (6.3 yards per carry) and two rushing touchdowns.
Neither Fehoko nor Davis will likely directly replace Palmer, and Jalen Guyton might make his season debut. Still, Fehoko and Davis should have enhanced roles. The former is a big-bodied wideout who scored a touchdown in the red zone last week, and the latter is a speedy gadget weapon with as many rush attempts (seven for 75 yards) as receptions (seven for 38 receiving yards) in his rookie campaign.
Jets Analysis: Gang Green's offense is top-heavy and has two sensational sophomores. Smartly, the offense is run through Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. Wilson is tied for the highest target share (33.5%) among wide receivers this year.
In addition, in New York's last four games, Wilson has led the team in routes (152), targets (45), receptions (27) and receiving yards (304), per Pro Football Focus (PFF). He has more than twice as many targets as the second-highest-targeted player's 19, and he has nearly twice as many receiving yards as the second-highest total (160) during that stretch.
Hall was the Jets' second-most productive receiver since Week 4, ranking second on the team in targets (19), receptions (17) and receiving yards (160). And, obviously, receiving is only part of Hall's skill set. The explosive second-year running back had 52 rush attempts, 289 rushing yards (5.6 yards per carry) and two rushing touchdowns in his last four games. He had a 71.2% backfield rush share in those games.
Hall is game-script-proof and has a tasty matchup this week, at least as a receiver. The Chargers have allowed 56.75 rushing yards per game, 3.1 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 7.5 receptions per game, 68.25 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs since Week 4.
Zach Wilson is a bum. He's averaging a pitiful 191.0 passing yards per game with five touchdown passes and five interceptions. Yet, the third-year pro has a cushy matchup this week, lending hope to a DFS-relevant outing this week. The Chargers have allowed 291.5 passing yards per game, five passing touchdowns, 17.75 rushing yards per game and three rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks in their previous four contests.
Tyler Conklin is a worthwhile punt from the Jets. In his last four games, he had 16 targets, 11 receptions and 149 receiving yards while running the third-most routes (103) on the team.
Final Thoughts: The defenses and kickers from each team were included on the tables because they're viable options this week. In fact, as gross as it sounds, using all four together on the same roster at DK isn't outrageous. Stacking either defense with their running back is also a correlated move.
Ekeler, Hall, Garrett Wilson and Allen are the suggested Captain/MVP picks on this slate. Gamers who use Wilson as the Captain/MVP are also encouraged to fill a flex spot with Zach Wilson. Finally, all lineup constructions are on the table, ranging from onslaughts for either team to balanced builds.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
