Game scripts and Vegas betting odds can challenging variables when looking for kicking opportunities. Typically, when a team is more than a seven-point dog, and the game script turns out to be correct, the kicker on that team usually will not produce viable fantasy production.

That is often why you see kickers on teams that are sizeable underdogs lower in my rankings. If a team is trailing by double figures, they often will not get the field goal opportunities in a close matchup, and often times they will miss out on extra point tries late as their team is forced to go for two.

In the case of Matt Prater and the Cardinals, the Vegas odds makers set the spread at +13 for the Cardinals, and San Francisco ended up winning by 16. Typically, this game script would have been a terrible setup for Prater, as the Niners scored 21 points in the first half and enjoyed a 35-16 cushion at the end of the third quarter.

But not all game scripts are equal, and Prater ended up with 14 fantasy points and a second-place finish on the week with three field goals, including a 50-yarder.

There were three other kickers who played on teams that were more than seven-point dogs in Week 15. Greg Zuerlein of the Jets dropped a goose and a K32 finish, while Chad Ryland of the Patriots finished with four points to place as the 24th kicker on the week.

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Fantasy Football Week 16 Kicker Rankings & Start/Sit Advice (2023)

(Rostership percentages courtesy of Yahoo!)

Week 15 Strong Performances From Widely-Available Kickers:

Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU) @ Tennessee: 1% Rostered

Ka’imi Fairbairn posted 17 fantasy points and a first-place finish on the week in his first game back from injury. Fairbairn has posted some impressive scores this season, but I am worried to recommend him for this week’s game against the Browns if CJ Stroud is out.

Matt Prater (ARI) @ San Francisco: 2% Rostered

Prater overcame the odds to post a top-five finish for a team that was a 13-point dog on the road. This week’s road matchup against the Bears will be a closer game, but the wind and weather conditions in Chicago are a bit worrisome. I’d look for a better option in my fantasy playoffs.

Week 15 Dud Performances From Heavily-Rostered Kickers

Brandon Aubrey (DAL) @ Buffalo: 99% Rostered

Even the top kicker on the season will have a game or two in which he does not put up viable fantasy production. Unfortunately for Brandon Aubrey’s fantasy managers, his worst game of the season occurred in the opening week of the playoffs. Look for him to bounce back this week on the road against Miami.

Kicker Rankings:

*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 30th in red zone efficiency; therefore, Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 2. The lower the number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.

**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent’s red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.

Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.

Contrarian Kicker Plays

Based on the variables outlined above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be excellent plays in Week 16.

Blake Grupe @ LA Rams: 7% Rostered

With a K Score of 37 and a spread of 4, Blake Grupe has a chance to post a top-12 finish for the Saints this week. There is always the Derek Carr implosion risk, but Groupe is coming off an eight-point performance last week and should put up similar numbers on “Thursday Night Football.”

Michael Badgley (DET) vs. Minnesota: 3% Rostered

With weather a concern in numerous games down the playoff stretch, I prefer to go with a kicker who will play most of his games indoors and one who will provide a decent floor of extra points due to playing in a high-flying offense. Also, the Vikings’ defense has been stout as of late and ranks seventh in red zone defense. This could be a big game for Michael Badgley.

Prediction Review

Each week, I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.

Brandon McManus (JAX) vs. Baltimore: 45% Rostered

• ECR Rank: 21
• My Rank: 7
• Week 15 Finish: 26

The K Score turned out to be spot on in predicting multiple field goal opportunities for Brandon McManus. The problem is the big-legged kicker for Jacksonville missed both of his 50-plus-yard tries. Had he made them, his 11 points would have given him a sixth-place finish on the week. The K Score predicts opportunity, but the kicker has to come through. That was not the case for McManus.

Riley Patterson (DET) vs. Denver: 53% Rostered

• ECR Rank: NA
• My Rank: NA
• Week 15 Finish: NA

Riley Patterson was released by the Lions and replaced by Badgley prior to the game. Badgley made all six extra-point tries on the day but did not get a field goal opportunity in what turned out to be a lopsided win over the Broncos.

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