The Broncos are hosting the Patriots to close Sunday’s action. The game’s total is tiny, suggesting a probable defensive slugfest. Nevertheless, both squads have intriguing offensive players of varying degrees. Yet, a decided lack of stars creates a unique showdown slate.
Game: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Spread: DEN -7.0
Over/Under: 35.0 Points
Patriots Analysis: Ezekiel Elliott has dominated New England's backfield without Rhamondre Stevenson in the previous two weeks. The veteran running back had 33 of the backfield's 37 rushing opportunities, rumbling for 93 scoreless yards. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Zeke also ran 48 routes versus two for Kevin Harris. Elliott had 14 targets, 12 receptions, 93 receiving yards and one touchdown reception.
His workload is dreamy, and the matchup is favorable. According to The 33rd Team, running backs have averaged 23.7 DraftKings points per game (the 16th-most), 20.9 FanDuel points per game (the 15th-most), 106 rushing yards per game, 4.9 yards per carry, 4.0 receptions per game and 22 receiving yards per game, with four touchdowns (three rushing and one receiving) against the Broncos since Week 12. Zeke should be busy against the Broncos regardless of the game script.
Bailey Zappe could also carry a heavy load. First, they're underdogs. So, the game script could force him to throw often. Second, teams have attacked the Broncos through the air. According to RotoViz's pace app, Denver's opponents have had a 64% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 12. The Patriots had a 56% situation-neutral pass rate in that stretch. Maybe the Patriots will follow the lead of Denver's previous opponents.
Even though teams have chosen to pass frequently against the Broncos, it's been a challenging matchup for quarterbacks. Furthermore, Zappe has had mediocre stats as a starter in the previous three weeks, averaging only 187.0 passing yards per game, with four passing touchdowns and two interceptions. He's not a must-use player, but a quarterback on a showdown slate is always a viable pick.
Slot wideouts and tight ends have had the path of least resistance through the air against the Broncos. According to The 33rd Team, Demario Douglas has had a 72.8% slot rate this season. The rookie has played only once in the previous three games but had a rock-solid 20% targets per route run, catching three passes for 33 yards.
Circling back to the matchup, Denver has allowed only 8.7 DK points per game and 7.5 FD points per game to perimeter wideouts since Week 12. However, they've coughed up 24.7 DK and 18.3 FD points per game to slots.
DeVante Parker has had only a 23.4% slot rate this season. Yet, he had a season-high 60.9% slot rate in Week 15. Since Week 13, Parker's 17.3% target share and 85 air yards per game were the highest marks among New England's wide receivers. The veteran wideout's underwhelming target share was dragged down by missing one game in that stretch. His 23.7% targets per route run was a more encouraging mark. Parker averaged 4.5 receptions and 54 receiving yards in his past two games, which isn't too shabby on this slate.
Hunter Henry was ruled out on Saturday. He was New England's top pass-catching weapon for Zappe. In the last three weeks, he's had 12 receptions (4.0 per game), 121 receiving yards (40.3 per game) and three touchdowns.
Since Week 12, the Broncos have coughed up 16.9 DK points per game (the fourth-most), 14.2 FD points per game (the third-most), 5.5 receptions per game, 59 receiving yards per game and four receiving touchdowns to tight ends.
In the last three weeks, Mike Gesicki has run 29 routes, and Pharaoh Brown has run 28. Neither player did much with their modest role. The former had one target, one reception and seven yards, and the latter had two, two and eight. However, Gesicki and Brown will have enhanced roles without Henry, making both excellent selections on this slate.
Broncos Analysis: The Broncos have a literally balanced offense, with a 50% situation-neutral pass rate in their previous four games. However, New England's run defense is stout, causing teams to attack them through the air. Since Week 12, New England's opponents have had a 65% situation-neutral pass rate.
Russell Wilson isn't a bulletproof pick. He's completed only 59.3% of his passes since Week 12, averaging 191.8 passing yards per game, with five touchdown passes versus four interceptions. Wilson has made up for some of his passing shortcomings with his legs.
In his past four games, Wilson has rushed for 86 yards (21.5 per game) and three touchdowns. The veteran isn't the same dynamic runner he was earlier in his career. Still, Wilson does enough as a runner to fit the bill as a dual-threat quarterback. Finally, the Broncos are favored at home, and the favored quarterback is an appealing pick on a showdown slate.
Courtland Sutton is far and away Denver's top passing-game weapon. The big-bodied, field-stretching wide receiver has scored a touchdown in 10 games, had at least 53 receiving yards nine times and had at least three receptions in 11 contests this season.
Sean Payton has deployed him from the slot and wide. Sutton has had a 48.7% slot rate and a 48.2% wide rate this season. The matchup on the perimeter is much easier for Sutton this week. The Patriots have held slots to only 9.6 DK and 7.3 FD points per game since Week 12. However, they've yielded 20.2 DK and 15.8 FD points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sutton has had a perimeter rate as high as 69.0% this season, with two more games north of 60%.
Marvin Mims is also an intriguing choice. In the last four weeks, the rookie was third on the Broncos in routes (63). He didn't turn heads. Regardless, Mims showcased his potential earlier this year when he had two receptions for 113 yards and a touchdown against the Commanders in Week 2 and three for 73 against the Dolphins in Week 3. Like Sutton, Mims has split his time in the slot (47.7%) and wide (47.7%). The rookie has aligned wide on over 58% of his snaps three times this season, spiking as high as 63.3%.
Javonte Williams is Denver's lead running back, and they're favored. The matchup is brutal, but Williams's recent workload and the potential for a positive game script are exciting for his outlook. Since Week 12, Williams has had a backfield-high 60 rush attempts, more than twice as many as Samaje Perine (16 rush attempts) and Jaleel McLaughlin (13) combined to tally. Wiliams ran 53 routes in those games versus 35 for Perine and 15 for McLaughlin.
Sadly for Williams, the Patriots have held running backs to 43 rushing yards per game, 2.5 yards per carry, 5.0 receptions per game, 41 receiving yards per game and two receiving touchdowns since Week 12. Nonetheless, volume is the king for running backs, and the Broncos are 7.0-point favorites. Williams should have a robust workload if the game plays out according to the betting info.
Final Thoughts: Wilson and Sutton are the two best selections for Captain/MVP. However, Elliott and Williams are also viable picks. Finally, balanced lineups or those tilting slightly in either direction are the most appealing for this showdown slate.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
