IT’S PLAYOFF FOOTBALL TIME, BABY! Now, the season after the season begins. Anything can happen in the playoffs. We have seen in previous years Cinderella teams keep the magic going and advance deep into the playoffs. We have also witnessed NFL Goliaths get trounced by lowly-seeded teams. My body is ready for the chaos.

The chaos of injuries and a playoff slate that extends across three days should make it a wonderful DFS slate for us to get different with our lineups. Embrace variance. Embrace the wildness of playoff DFS. Again, if I didn’t write up a particular player for this week’s Primer, it’s because I don’t like their outlook and won’t be playing them in DFS. It’s time to build some lineups.

Here is the complete Super Wild Card Weekend Primer. Below we dive into Browns vs. Texans.

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DFS Primer: Wild Card Weekend

Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans

• CLE -2.5, O/U 44.5
• Browns vs. Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco: We have already seen what this looks like. In Week 16, Flacco carved this secondary up with 368 passing yards (64.3% completion rate), 8.8 yards per attempt, three passing scores, and 26.8 fantasy points. Flacco has been playing with his hair on fire weekly. Among 48 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt, first in passing yards per game, and ninth in fantasy points per dropback, but he has also been threading the needle with some concerning deeper metrics. Among the same sample, he is 42nd in CPOE, 28th in highly accurate throw rate, and has the 14th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. I’m not forecasting this week as being the end of the line for the Flacco train, but I’m just highlighting that no one should be surprised if the wheels fall off inexplicably any week. Houston has been a Swiss cheese pass defense, giving up the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the ninth-most passing yards, and the ninth-highest CPOE since Week 12. They have also been vulnerable to the deep ball, allowing the 10th-highest CPOE and the second-most deep passing yards in that span.

C.J. Stroud: Stroud is a baller extraordinaire. He has the third-most passing yards per game, the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest passer rating, and the 11th-most fantasy points per dropback. Stroud will have his work cut out for him against a talented pass defense that has still allowed the third-most passing touchdowns since Week 12. That’s been the only splotch on any otherwise impressive 2023 resume for the Browns. Since Week 12, they have held passers to the fifth-lowest passer rating, the lowest yards per attempt, and the third-lowest CPOE. Stroud could be a contrarian play on this slate, but he has crushed the Browns’ primary coverage tendencies all season, so I won’t be surprised if he does it again. Since Week 13, the Browns have utilized Cover 2 or Cover 3 on 51.8% of their defensive snaps. Against Cover 2 and Cover 3, Stroud has the second-highest yards per attempt, passer rating, and fantasy points per dropback.

Running Backs

Devin Singletary: The last time Singletary faced this run defense, he ran for 4.89 yards per carry, but he only had nine rushing attempts. He finished with 12 touches and 63 total yards. He is the Texans’ every down bellcow. Last week, he played 88% of the snaps with 25 touches and 65 total yards. Singletary ranks 20th in explosive run rate and 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. If Houston feeds him, he should finish with a juicy stat line. Since Week 12, Cleveland has bled out the highest explosive run rate, the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the third-highest yards per carry to gap runs (4.92). 51.4% of Singletary’s runs have been via gap plays.

Wide Receivers

Amari Cooper: In each of the last three starts Cooper has made with Flacco, he’s seen at least eight targets and finished with at least 77 receiving yards. Cooper ranks sixth in deep targets and 30th in red zone targets among wide receivers. Since Week 13, Houston has the third-highest rate of two-high (65.3%). In the 14 full games that Cooper, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku have played together against two-high, Cooper has a 21.9% target share, a 42.4% air-yard share, 2.14 YPRR, and a 28.5% first-read share. In this sample of games, he also ranks second in end-zone targets with five. Since Week 12, Houston has allowed the sixth-highest PPR points per target and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Nico Collins: In the five games Collins has played this season where Tank Dell has been limited or absent, he has soaked up a huge piece of the passing pie with a 22.9% target share, a 31.6% air-yard share, 3.93 YPRR, and a 28% first-read share. Since Week 13, the Browns have utilized Cover 2 or Cover 3 on 51.8% of their defensive snaps. In the 13 games this season that Collins has played at 50% of the snaps, he has commanded a 31% TPRR against Cover 2 and Cover 3 with 3.9 YPRR and a ridiculous 0.74 fantasy points per route run. Among 104 qualifying wide receivers against Cover 2 and Cover 3, he ranks second to only Tyreek Hill in fantasy points per route run. Collins should smash again this week, and he’s as close to a lock button play as you can get.

Xavier Hutchinson: Noah Brown and Robert Woods are still nowhere close to 100%. We’ll see if either can play this week, but assuming both are out this week, then Hutchinson is in play for C.J. Stroud stacks again this week. In Week 18, with Brown and Woods out, Hutchinson had a 58.1% route run rate, a 15.4% target share, and a 77,8% slot rate. The Browns have been vulnerable to the slot over the last few weeks. Since Week 12, Cleveland has allowed the fourth-most receiving touchdowns and the 13th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Tight Ends

David Njoku: Njoku has been otherworldly, with Flacco averaging nine targets, six receptions, 78 receiving yards, and 0.8 receiving scores per game. Since Week 13, Houston has the third-highest rate of two-high (65.3%). In the 14 full games that Cooper, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku have played together against two-high, Njoku has had a 21.5% target share, 1.80 YPRR, and a 22.4% first-read share. Houston has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends.

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