The Buccaneers and Eagles will close Super Wild Card Weekend on Monday night in a projected close contest. Both teams have blemishes. They also each have a mix of high-end and bargain DFS options.
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: PHI -3.0
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Eagles Analysis: Unfortunately, Jalen Hurts has a dislocated finger on his throwing hand, and A.J. Brown is out. Still, the dual-threat quarterback fully participated in practice on Friday. Hurts wasn't playing his best at the end of the regular season. In the final four games (he left the finale early because Philadelphia was getting blown out), he passed for only 666 yards, four touchdowns and five interceptions. The finger could impact his throwing, too.
However, Hurts is also a weapon as a runner. Even when he struggled as a passer in the last four games of the regular season, he ran for 145 yards and three touchdowns. So, Hurts has a high ceiling. Yet, he's not a must-use player for gamers entering multiple lineups into GPPs.
DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are Hurts's top weapons when he takes to the air. Both should see an uptick in opportunities without Brown. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), since Week 15, Brown was first on the Eagles in routes (106), tied for first in targets (25), second in receptions (16) and first in receiving yards (198). Goedert was second in routes (105), tied for first in targets (25), first in receptions (17), third in receiving yards (152) and caught a touchdown. Smith was third in routes (95), third in targets (15), third in receptions (12), second in receiving yards (159) and caught a touchdown.
Again, both should have more chances without Philadelphia's No. 1 wideout. Additionally, the matchup is mouthwatering for Goedert. According to The 33rd Team, the Buccaneers allowed tight ends the most DraftKings (18.7) and FanDuel (15.2) points per game since Week 15.
Quez Watkins is the most interesting ancillary wideout. Julio Jones had two touchdowns in Week 17 but hasn't been efficient. Olamide Zaccheaus has run gassers and hasn't earned targets. In the blowout loss in Week 18, Watkins had 11 targets, eight receptions, 93 receiving yards and one touchdown on 44 routes. He has the most juice among Philadelphia's non-Smith wideouts.
Watkins should also benefit from his alignment. According to The 33rd Team, he's had a 58.7% slot rate this season. Since Week 15, the Buccaneers have allowed more DK and FD points per game to slots than perimeter wideouts, allowing 17.1 DK and 13.3 FD points per game to slots and 12.4 and 9.1 to perimeter wide receivers.
D'Andre Swift is an exciting pick from the Eagles. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Eagles have had a 56% situation-neutral rush rate since Week 15. Philadelphia might also feel compelled to feed Swift as often as possible to avoid asking Hurts to chuck it with his damaged digit.
The matchup is brutal for Swift. Since Week 15, Tampa Bay's stout run defense has held running backs to 14.9 DK points per game, 11.1 FD points per game, 72 rushing yards per game, 3.7 yards per carry, 4.5 receptions per game, 16 receiving yards per game and zero touchdowns. However, Swift steamrolled them in Week 3. He had 16 rush attempts for 130 yards and one reception for eight yards.
Swift was inactive in Week 18. However, in the three previous games, he handled 51 of Philadelphia's backfield's 66 rushing opportunities (77.3%) for 227 rushing yards and one touchdown. Swift also ran 35 routes versus 46 for Kenneth Gainwell. So, Swift wasn't a total non-factor in the passing game. Swift could get scripted out of the game for Gainwell if the Eagles are in a negative game script, but it's not a foregone conclusion.
Finally, Swift's touchdown potential near the goal line is theoretically greater than usual. The Eagles could call Swift's number on running plays at the goal line more often than usual if Hurts's finger poses him any problems on snaps under center.
Buccaneers Analysis: Baker Mayfield is banged up. Nevertheless, he's been powering through his injuries. The Bucs also haven't taken the ball out of his hands. Since Week 15, they've had a 58% situation-neutral pass rate. In those games, Mayfield completed 70.3% of his 128 passes for 1,110 yards, 8.7 yards per pass attempt, eight touchdowns and two interceptions.
Mayfield didn't have much success against the Eagles in Week 3. Still, Philadelphia's defense is a train wreck. Since Week 15, they've coughed up 18.0 DK points per game, 17.3 FD points per game, 234 passing yards per game, six passing touchdowns and 21 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. Thus, Mayfield is a rock-solid pick on this slate.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are Mayfield's one-two punch. Since Week 15, Godwin was first on the Buccaneers in targets (31), receptions (25) and receiving yards (365) and added a touchdown reception. Meanwhile, Evans was second on the club in targets (23), receptions (17) and receiving yards (235) but led in touchdown receptions (three).
They can smash Philadelphia's pathetic secondary. Since Week 15, the Eagles have ceded 15.2 DK and 13.2 FD points per game to perimeter wideouts. They allowed even more points to slots, yielding 20.3 DK and 14.7 FD points per game. Evans has had a 41.1% slot rate and 56.9% wide rate this year, and Godwin's marks were 55.2% slot and 38.6% wide.
Trey Palmer is an exciting punt selection. He's locked into the No. 3 wideout gig. Since Week 15, he ran the fourth-most routes (103) for the Bucs, trailing only Cade Otton, Evans and Godwin. The speedy rookie had 19 targets, 11 receptions, 141 receiving yards and one touchdown reception. Moreover, he's had a 60.4% slot rate this year, and, again, the Eagles have allowed more points to slots than perimeter wide receivers since Week 15.
Rachaad White is a unicorn in the modern NFL. He's a genuine workhorse running back. First, his 83% snap share was second among running backs in the regular season. Second, he handled 71 of Tampa Bay's backfield's 91 rush attempts (78.0%) since Week 15, albeit for an underwhelming 245 rushing yards, 3.5 yards per carry and one rushing touchdown. Third, he ran 96 routes and had 17 targets, 16 receptions, 130 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown versus 38, seven, six, 37 and zero for Chase Edmonds in Tampa Bay's final four games in the regular season. He's an every-down, game-script-proof running back who can pile up receptions in a negative game script or tote the rock to salt away a win.
The second-year pro has parlayed his robust role into at least 15 touches in 12 straight games. White also had at least 23 touches in five of his previous six games. The Eagles held him to 62 scoreless scrimmage yards and three receptions in Week 3. Nevertheless, White's role is dreamy, and Philadelphia's defense against running backs was pitiful down the stretch. Since Week 15, the Eagles have allowed 29.5 DK points per game, 26.4 FD points per game, 109 rushing yards per game, 4.4 yards per carry, five rushing touchdowns, 3.3 receptions per game, 28 receiving yards per game, 8.7 yards per receptions and two receiving touchdowns to running backs.
Final Thoughts: This showdown slate is chock full of Captain/MVP options. Hurts, even with his dislocated finger, is in the first tier. White, Evans and Godwin are in the second tier. Swift and Goedert are also intriguing choices, namely at DK, where they offer valuable salary relief from Hurts, White, Evans and Godwin as the Captain. Finally, balanced lineups or those tilting toward either team are the most appealing.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
