Injuries are a large part of fantasy baseball, and I suppose in relation, a large part of real-life baseball as well. Avoiding players with high injury risk and knowing when to sell on a player when they return from an injury is an advantage as the season progresses.
However, every article I reviewed insinuated injuries are random and based on complete chance and there is no causation or way to predict an injury is coming.
I refuse to believe that. As someone who spends an inordinate amount of time looking at minor details that most people do not care about, I’ll give it a shot.
Let’s go down the rabbit hole of MLB injuries step by step and crack the code:
- Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Simulator
- 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
- Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Baseball Projections
Fantasy Baseball Injury Risks
Contact Team Doctors
Email all MLB team doctors asking for the workout routines for players being drafted in the top 150 to find players who are focusing on or rehabbing certain high-risk body parts.
I must have caught all 30 team doctors on a bad day or something, I disagree with it being an “inappropriate question.” It is appropriate to me and they are being unreasonable, not me.
Major Injuries in 2023
Since no one with a medical degree will help me, major injuries in 2023 seem like the next logical place to start. Notable major injuries last year and the players’ recent injury history:
- 9/12/23 – Tricep
- 5/9/23 – Neck
- 9/3/22 – Side
- 5/18/22 – Oblique
- 9/1/21 – Hamstring
- 04/08/23 – Shoulder
- 05/27/22 – Ankle
- 8/2/23 – Hamstring
- 6/24/23 – Back
- 6/1/23 – Ribs
- 5/22/23 – Leg
- 8/22/22 – Hip
- 8/2/22 – Knee
- 7/23/22 – Knee
- 5/7/22 – Hip
- 4/15/22- Knee
- 9/13/23- Knee
- 8/5/23 – Hamstring
- 7/2/23 – Oblique
- 5/13/23 – Toe
- 4/24/23- Undisclosed
- 4/5/23 – Shoulder
- 6/28/22- Back
- 6/27/22 – Back
- 6/24/22 – Back
- 6/21/22 – Undisclosed
- 5/22/22 – Hamstring
- 9/6/23 – Forearm
Notes
Standing out to me, other than Max Scherzer getting hurt every May and September, is how the injuries to the position players all seem anatomically connected: hamstring, knee, hip, while the only upper body injuries (Jazz Chisholm – shoulder/back) did not return.
Looking at the prior year’s major player injuries, I found a similar correlation. Lower body injuries that occur for position players are random, but lingering. Check.
On to pitchers.
Smarter people than I isolated pitcher injury data and found a 3.5x increase in elbow injuries for pitchers during the 2020 shortened season. They found no increase/decrease for position players, pointing to what I spoke to earlier, position player injuries being random and then lingering.
They found, among other reasons, that “fatigue on kinematic variables (increased arm strain through throwing motion) … and the increased density of games played” were the causes for the increase. I found the density of games most interesting, but there was no real change in average pitches per game or decreased rest schedule for starting pitchers in 2020. The study mentions an increased number of doubleheaders as the reason for the increased density of pitcher injuries, but that did not affect starting pitching.
I chose to focus on arm strain on throwing motion. Further down the rabbit hole we go.
League Leaders in Pitches Thrown
A list of players who finished top five in pitches thrown since 2020 and their subsequent injuries:
- Lance Lynn (SP – STL): 2020 – Shoulder Injury 2021
- Shane Bieber (SP – CLE): 2020 – Shoulder Injury 2021
- German Marquez (SP – COL) 2020 – Arm Injury 2023
- Lucas Giolito (SP – BOS): 2020 – Shoulder Injury Opening Day 2022
- Max Scherzer: 2020 – See Above
- Zach Wheeler (SP – PHI): 2021 – Arm Injury 2022
- Tyler Mahle (SP – TEX): 2021 – Arm Injury 2022
- Luis Castillo (SP – SEA): 2021 – Shoulder Injury, slow ramp up 2023. Mariners added a unique Tommy John clause to contract.
- Walker Buehler (SP – LAD): 2021 – Arm Injury 2022
- Robbie Ray (SP – SEA): 2021 – Arm Injury 2022
- Gerrit Cole (SP – NYY): 2022 – Good to Go
- Corbin Burnes (SP – BAL): 2022 – Good to Go
- Sandy Alcantara: 2022 – See Above
- Adam Wainwright: 2022 – Retired
- Dylan Cease (SP – CHW): 2022 – Good to Go
Notes
Nine of the players above have had Tommy John surgery at some point in their lives.
Every player who was top five in pitch count in 2020 and 2021 suffered an injury within the next 18 months.
There is undoubtedly at least a loose correlation between leading the league in pitches and having an injury in the near future. Usually after some sort of increase or significant decrease in strain on the arm in the subsequent season.
Naturally, the next thought is:
2023 Pitch Count Leaders
- Gerrit Cole
- Dylan Cease
- Zac Gallen (SP – ARI)
- Luis Castillo
- Lucas Giolito
A list of five pitchers I may find myself avoiding in 2024.
This article is partly in jest as there are hundreds of reasons for injuries throughout a season; players recover differently than others, injury history, body anatomy, age, etc. But in 2024 I will be staying away from pitchers with large increases in pitch count and position players with lower body injuries.
TLDR
Looking to avoid injuries in 2024?
- Avoid position players who have had recent major lower body injuries within the last year
- Avoid pitchers who have been in the top 5 in pitch counts in the recent years preceding
More Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy
- Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Draft Mistakes to Avoid
- Should You Draft a Pitcher in Round 1?
- Fantasy Baseball Position Scarcity Draft Strategy & Targets
- Fantasy Baseball Salary Cap Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Categories League Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball OBP League Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Value-Based Drafting Primer
- Fantasy Baseball H2H Categories vs. Points Leagues Draft Primer
- Players that Gain & Lose Value in Categories vs. Points Leagues
- Fantasy Baseball Roto vs. H2H Leagues Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Points League Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Draft & Hold League Strategy & Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Quality Starts Leagues Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Best Ball Draft Strategy & Targets
- Fantasy Baseball Saves + Holds Leagues Draft Primer
- Second-Year Player Draft Primer: Hitters | Pitchers
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