With the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine taking center stage this week, the fantasy collective is laser-focused on the 2024 rookie class. Use that to your advantage by targeting these three undervalued dynasty sleepers prior to free agency kicking off in mid-March.
Fantasy managers tend to get rookie-draft-pick fever this time of year, meaning those mid-round rookie picks are in higher demand than usual. I’m not one to just throw away draft picks but sometimes it’s good business to swap the “mystery box” for more proven assets.
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Early Dynasty Sleepers to Target
Jerome Ford (RB – CLE)
When starting running back Nick Chubb suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 2, many expected the Cleveland running game to completely fall off. While it wasn’t quite up to the standard set by Chubb, backup running back Jerome Ford stepped in and played admirably in his place.
From Weeks 2-17, Ford averaged 12.2 half-PPR points per game and finished as the RB13 over that same timeframe. Veteran Kareem Hunt did eat into some of Ford’s early-down and goal line work, but Ford finished his second NFL season with 813 rushing yards, 319 receiving yards, and nine total touchdowns.
Despite that solid showing, Ford’s remains a tremendous value in dynasty leagues. Ford is currently the RB33 (112th overall) in the latest FantasyPros ECR and trending downward. That’s likely due to the uncertainty surrounding Chubb’s recovery, but Ford is the current favorite to open the 2024 season as Cleveland’s RB1.
Chubb’s multi-ligament knee tear could linger into the 2024 regular season, and the possibility of an outright release is reportedly an option for Browns’ management. Chubb is a fan-favorite inside and outside the organization, but it’s hard to justify paying a hobbled running back nearly $16 million in 2024. If Chubb refuses a restructured contract and hits the open market, Ford’s ADP would jump multiple rounds overnight.
Josh Downs (WR – IND)
With Gardner Minshew under center for the majority of the season, Indianapolis lacked the passing volume to support two fantasy-relevant wide receivers every week. Michael Pittman Jr. led the Colts in every receiving category, but slot receiver Josh Downs flashed during his rookie campaign.
Downs finished his rookie season with 68 receptions and 771 receiving yards, but only managed two touchdown receptions all season. With an uptick in passing volume and some positive touchdown regression, Downs could seriously outperform his current ECR of WR42.
It should also be noted that Pittman Jr. is an impending free agent, but the Colts are widely expected to franchise tag their WR1 if no long-term agreement is in place. Pittman Jr. likely isn’t going anywhere, but there is always a chance Downs enters the season as the WR1 in Indianapolis.
Michael Wilson (WR – ARI)
Arizona trotting out three separate starting quarterbacks in 2023 impacted his fantasy production but wide receiver Michael Wilson had a mini-breakout late in his rookie campaign. Wilson averaged 15.5 points per game and finished as the WR16 in the final two games of the regular season.
That’s a really small sample size, but Wilson was more involved than the season-long numbers suggest. Despite managing only 565 receiving yards all season, the rookie ran a route on 80% of dropbacks in 2023 and could be locked into a similar role next season.
Injury-prone Marquise Brown is an impending free agent and a divorce makes sense for both sides. Arizona would add reinforcements via free agency or the NFL Draft in that scenario, but a fully-healthy Kyler Murray can support more than one wide receiver in fantasy football.
As the ECR WR60 (140th overall player), there’s almost no risk in adding Wilson to dynasty rosters right now. You can probably snag him for a third-round rookie pick, an aging proven veteran like Jakobi Meyers, or a disappointing young prospect with some hype.
Dynasty Trade Value Chart & Advice
Whether it’s a dynasty startup draft or your rookie draft, we have you covered. Our team of fantasy football analysts includes Derek Brown, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Andrew Erickson. And Fitz and Scott Bogman will have you covered every week through the offseason with our Dynasty Football Podcast. They’ve all collaborated to provide our dynasty trade value chart. This is a dynamic chart created using a consensus of the analysts’ dynasty rankings.
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