Each draft season, fantasy football managers do their best to navigate the ever-shifting minefield that is the player pool, avoiding unnecessary risk and targeting upside. No position is more important to nail down than wide receiver, especially with the prevalence of PPR formats dominating the landscape across most provider sites.
How does one walk the fine line between risk and reward when it comes to receivers? At what point does it become more beneficial for a manager to value consistency from a veteran over potential from a younger, unproven player?
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Every analyst has a handful of players we refer to as flag plants. This stems from having a definitive opinion (be it good or bad) on their outcome for the following season. Though it is always more fun to endorse players rather than warn managers to stay away from them, there is something to be said for the “I tried to warn you, but you didn’t listen” response.
Now I’ll caveat things before I get into the heart of my choices.
I may not always be right, but I’ll always attempt to explain my opinion with facts and supporting evidence.
Last season, I wrote this same article and warned managers against drafting Rome Odunze, Deebo Samuel, Chris Godwin, Marvin Mims Jr. (who was receiving an overwhelming amount of hype at the time) and Jameson Williams.
I’ll take the L for the Williams selection since he was able to make a leap forward, but that was only after Detroit shifted its offensive identity once head coach Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties mid-year. The other “fade” selections panned out, thankfully. Crisis averted.
Fantasy Football Wide Receivers to Avoid
So, who are this season’s wide receivers to avoid at their current average draft position (ADP)? Here are a few notable names.
Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR)
Last season’s AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year recipient, Tetairoa McMillan, lived up to the hype, finishing with a 70/1,014/7 split, finishing as the WR15 in fantasy.
McMillan’s production stemmed largely from a modest target volume, as he finished 14th in the NFL with 122 targets. One has to wonder if this is sustainable or a mirage, since quarterback Bryce Young ranked 21st in passing yards (3,011) and 14th in attempts (478).
To his credit, Young has made incremental progress each season in the NFL, but I’m really starting to wonder if he will ever ascend from a game manager to a game changer. Head coach Dave Canales seems content with Young throwing short passes to build up his confidence (he has a paltry 6.3 yards per attempt each of the last two seasons). When will he take the reins off?
Further complicating matters is Jalen Coker returning to full health and being rewarded with an extension by Carolina. Towards the end of last season, he was the favored target for Young (over McMillan) and carved out a major role for himself moving forward.
Running back Jonathon Brooks‘ healthy return provides Carolina with another weapon to utilize on the field, and I’d fully expect this offense to lean heavily on the run to keep them competitive in games. McMillan is currently ranked as the WR17 in expert consensus rankings (ECR), and I feel that managers are paying a premium for a player with many surrounding question marks.
Last season, the chips fell nicely for McMillan to finish as a volume play, but increased competition and middling play under center have me worried about his outlook in 2026.
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
This is another case of a player who I enjoy rooting for because of his immense physical talent, but he plays in an awful situation on a team that is a mess offensively. Garrett Wilson’s supporters will kindly point out that even in a horrible situation last season, he was able to produce at an incredibly high clip before eventually succumbing to a knee injury after Week 6.
Fair point, but a deep dive into why he was producing is troubling. Wilson had a 31.2% target share and was the first read in the offense on nearly half of the passing plays. He was the entirety of New York’s passing attack. Period. Is that honestly repeatable? Call me skeptical.
The Jets spent multiple first-round picks in the draft to bring in offensive firepower at wideout and tight end, in the form of Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyon Sadiq. New offensive coordinator Frank Reich is sure to utilize their big-play ability from out of the gate, and I’d expect a massive reduction in targets for Wilson.
New York opted for a band-aid solution at quarterback in 35-year-old Geno Smith for a comeback opportunity with Gang Green. Smith’s overall play cratered last year, and it is difficult to envision a scenario where he ever becomes fantasy-viable in standard formats.
Smith is the total opposite of Justin Fields from last season — he is a statue in the pocket who doesn’t have the athleticism to extend plays. Call me skeptical that the Jets’ offense can find a way to return any sort of value on Wilson, given his current price tag as the WR20 overall.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
Marvin Harrison Jr. enters 2026 as a “post-hype sleeper” to some analysts, but I’m still trying to wash the taste out of my mouth from his putrid sophomore campaign. Across 12 starts, Harrison totaled just 41 receptions for 608 yards and four touchdowns, playing through a bevy of injuries that kept him from taking the step forward many were hoping for.
While Harrison admirably tried to play through things, his counterpart, Michael Wilson, went nuclear. Wilson and tight end Trey McBride thrived with Jacoby Brissett under center, who turned back the clock on his career to the tune of a QB16 finish across 14 starts.
Brissett recently negotiated a new contract, but with Arizona looking to punt the 2026 season, it is only a matter of time before the Cardinals see what they have with third-round selection Carson Beck. Uncertainty under center doesn’t bode well for Harrison’s outlook, and neither did the obvious connection that Wilson had with Brissett.
Keep in mind I haven’t even mentioned the elephant in the room, third overall selection Jeremiyah Love. Love forms a three-headed monster committee at running back with Tyler Allgeier and James Conner, for a team that will clearly focus on running the ball as much as possible.
When not lining up in the backfield, Arizona is sure to pepper Love with targets in the passing game on screens and other designed plays. Dramatically increased competition for targets seriously caps any comeback effort for Harrison, and all reports out of camp make it sound like he is struggling with confidence issues.
A WR31 ranking is a steep price to pay with so much uncertainty swirling around.
DK Metcalf (WR – PIT)
I had to do a double-take to figure out how DK Metcalf managed to finish last season as the WR26, when all I could recount of his season was a continual disappearing act. Metcalf’s supporters will argue that he had a fantastic string of productive seasons from 2020-2023, and his diminished production has nothing to do with a drop-off in his skills but is more a matter of an uphill battle in Arthur Smith’s offense.
I’d counter that, though I understand Metcalf is still only 28 years old, he’s never been a volume-based threat. He has always relied on strong touchdown totals to carry his value, but this is combined with maddening inconsistency and an unstable weekly point floor.
Metcalf has averaged 63 receptions per season in each of the last three years, and will now deal with stiffer competition for targets, in the form of Michael Pittman Jr. and second-round selection Germie Bernard from Alabama. New head coach Mike McCarthy definitely runs a friendlier scheme than Smith ever did, but I’m pessimistic that 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers can suddenly revert to his MVP form to keep Metcalf relevant.
Rodgers refused to look downfield for most of 2025, to the tune of a mediocre 6.7 yards per attempt — the area of the field where Metcalf doesn’t thrive. The occasional play-action pass will head in his direction, but Metcalf will need to capitalize on every opportunity to justify his current ADP. This is a case where I’m viewing the glass as half-empty, rather than half-full.
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