Fantasy Football Draft Busts: Jonathan Taylor, Luke Musgrave, T.J. Hockenson

In fantasy football, it’s equally as important to identify players to avoid, otherwise known as fantasy football draft busts, as it is players to target. Below are players worth avoiding based on single-quarterback average draft position (ADP). Watch out for these potential fantasy football draft busts that could sink your season before it begins.

FFPC Players to Avoid

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) | ADP: 14.0

Pick 14.0 overall is too pricy for a running back with one top-12 season in PPR points per game — RB2 in 2021. Since then, Jonathan Taylor has been the RB19 in 2022 and the RB14 in 2023. Looking at things purely through a points-per-game metric also eliminates the point that Taylor hasn’t played more than 11 games in consecutive seasons. When Taylor was taking the league by storm he averaged over 5.0 yards per carry in both of his first two seasons, since then he’s not been over 4.5.

Taylor ranked 36th among running backs with 50+ carries in rushing expected points added (EPA) and was largely outplayed by Zack Moss, who averaged more yards per carry (4.3 vs 4.0), evaded more tackles per game (3.0 vs 2.8), had a higher big run ate (3.95% vs 2.88%) and better-rushing yards before contact (1.5 vs 1.1).

Taylor played only 22 snaps with Anthony Richardson before Richardson’s season-ending injury, leaving it purely to our imagination what the two will look like. Taylor may enjoy increased rushing efficiency as defenses account for the dual-threat abilities of Richardson, but he’ll also likely see fewer catches. For someone who has only averaged 2.3 receptions per game over his career, there isn’t much room for losses in that valuable department.

Luke Musgrave (TE – GB) | ADP: 111.0

When it comes to FFPC and their tight-end premium scoring, nailing the tight end position is important. Luke Musgrave is currently the TE16 on FFPC, which feels quite expensive for a player who could be embroiled in a tight-end timeshare. Musgrave averaged 7.3 PPR points per game over the first 11 weeks of the 2023 season, finishing with double-digit points on only two occasions, while playing on 70% of the snaps, which kept fellow rookie tight end Tucker Kraft down to a 31% snap share.

Kraft played well in Musgrave’s absence from Week 12 onwards, while Musgrave dealt with a lacerated kidney. Kraft averaged 10.5 PPR points and had double-digit points in four of the six games during that span. Musgrave might have started 2023 as the clear TE1 in Green Bay, but it’s unlikely to stay as clear after Kraft performed so well. With Kraft available 40 picks later, the cheaper option might be the better one.

They don’t yet know that Tucker Kraft is the real TE1 pic.twitter.com/frGIYTtMh7

— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) November 23, 2023

T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN) | ADP: 98.0

A top-100 pick is quite a lot to part with for a player coming off a torn ACL and MCL knee injury, suffered in Week 16. The most optimistic scenarios expect T.J. Hockenson to be back on the field around Week 6, at which point Hockenson will be expected to get up to speed with rookie quarterback, J.J. McCarthy, who will be getting used to a lot of change.

By the time Hockenson is healthy he could be at best the third option behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Unless we hear positive news about Hockenson, he’s best left alone until his ADP gets to around 150, which it likely will as we get to the summer months and it becomes clear how much time Hockenson will miss.