Michael Moore | Fri, May 24th 2024, 8:15am EDT

3 Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid (2024)

With the NFL Draft and the bulk of free agency in the rearview mirror, it’s time to start looking ahead. Yes, it may not even be summer yet, but it’s never too early to start ranking, mocking, and more. Below are a few players to move down or take off your list entirely when you start doing your research for 2024. Here are fantasy football draft picks to avoid as you prepare for the 2024 NFL season.

Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Players to Avoid

We used FantasyPros consensus ADP tool for players’ current fantasy football draft positions.

De’Von Achane (RB – MIA) | ADP: RB8

De’Von Achane’s rookie season was, quite literally, unprecedented. The 2023 third-round pick saw just 103 carries over 11 games but managed 800 rushing yards. 800! That means he averaged eight yards per carry, which is double what most pro running backs do. He also scored eight touchdowns, which means he scored every 12th carry.

In all, Achane finished as the 21st-highest-scoring fantasy running back and undoubtedly won a few fantasy matchups all by himself. But as good as Achane was in 2023, several things didn’t go his — or his fantasy managers’ — way. For starters, he was fairly banged up, suffering shoulder and knee injuries that cumulatively kept him out of six games.

And even when he did play, he couldn’t carve out a bigger role on offense, seeing more than 10 carries in just four games. He was ok in the passing game, totaling 27 receptions for 197 yards, but not enough to offset the lack of carries when it came to scoring opportunities.

Why you should avoid: Achane certainly has the talent to be drafted as the RB1 on a fantasy team. The huge plays are reminiscent of former Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles, who himself was averaging 5-6 yards per carry for his fantasy teams. The difference is that Charles played in 15 and 16 games (back when a full season was 16 games) and wasn’t nearly as banged up. It’s only one season, but Achane currently has the fragile label slapped on him.

There’s also the matter of the depth chart. Any chance that the Dolphins would move on from Mostert was dashed when they re-signed him through the 2025 season. It’s not big money but it’s guaranteed money and an obstacle for Achane if he’s going to see more carries.

The Dolphins also used a fourth-round pick in this year’s draft on running back Jaylen Wright, himself a speedster who clocked a 4.38, 40-time at the Draft Combine. The crowded running back room wouldn’t be as much of an issue if it weren’t for how little the Dolphins run. They ranked 19th last year in rush attempts, averaging just 26 per game.

Achane’s talent is undeniable, but there are a lot of headwinds that could prevent him from being a good fantasy pick.

Keenan Allen (WR – CHI) | ADP: WR26

If any receiver could “bounce back”‘ from a 750-yard, age-30 season, it was Keenan Allen. Last year, Allen topped 100 receptions and 1,200 yards for just the second time in his career and the first time since the 2017 season. And that was on a middling offense in Los Angeles, who finished 16th in offensive DVOA. Allen was part of the Chargers’ purge this off-season and got a one-way ticket to Chicago, where he’ll now pair up with stud receiver DJ Moore and top-10 pick Rome Odunze.

Allen is in the last year of his deal so he’ll be plenty motivated to show that age hasn’t caught up to him. But age is just one of the factors Allen and his future fantasy managers will face.

Why you should avoid: Allen has had the luxury of playing with an elite fantasy quarterback for his entire career. Before Justin Herbert arrived in Los Angeles, Allen had Philip Rivers and his cannon of an arm to start his career. He now will have a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams, who will likely be successful but is still in their first season of throwing to and against professionals. The Pac-12, this is not, and the entire Bears receiving corps will be at the mercy of how fast Williams can get up to speed.

Beyond that, there’s the personnel around Allen. DJ Moore is not only in his prime but coming off his best statistical season, totaling 96 receptions for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns. Moore is the top target in the receiving room, and it isn’t even up for debate. But after Moore, the Bears also used a top-10 pick in this year’s draft on another receiver, Rome Odunze. It’s unlikely Odunze will overtake Allen on the depth chart, but his presence will surely cut into Allen’s target share.

Then there’s the coaching. Chicago hired former Seattle offensive coordinator Shane Waldron to lead the offense this season. Seattle also had a talented receiver room that included a player in their prime, an older veteran, and a first-round pick. The veteran and rookie – Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba – had very similar stat lines. Lockett finished with 79/894/5 compared to JSN’s 63/628/4. And this was after Lockett topped 1,000 yards the season before and was a fringe WR1 when it came to fantasy scoring.

Expect a drop-off for Allen and let others take him.

Kyren Williams (RB – LAR) | ADP: RB7

Another running back who burst on the scene last year was the Rams’ Kyren Williams. While not a rookie, he was in just his second year and had a true breakout season. His 1,100-plus yards and 12 touchdowns (in just 12 games) were the value of the season compared to where teams drafted him and won several league championships.

The value in Williams was the fact that he showed no signs of life before the 2023 season. He saw just 35 rush attempts his rookie season and totaled a pedestrian 139 yards and no touchdowns. For most of the off-season preceding the 2023 season, he wasn’t even viewed as the starter, as it was assumed (incorrectly) that Cam Akers was atop the depth chart. We were all wrong, and the only winners were those who snatched up Williams before the rest of the fantasy world realized what was happening.

Why you should avoid: There’s certainly a theme to why you should avoid Williams. He missed several games in his rookie season due to an injury; he missed several games last season due to injury (and still ran for 1,000 yards); and he’s starting this season injured, not able to participate in OTA’s because of a foot injury.

The Rams appear to be aware of Williams’ penchant for being injured. They took the third running back in this year’s draft, selecting Michigan’s Blake Corum in the third round. For a team that typically doesn’t have or use a lot of draft picks, taking a running back with one means more than most.

Kyren is a luxury at this point and shouldn’t be counted on for your fantasy team.

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