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5 Players Expected to See Fewer Targets (2024 Fantasy Football)

Every NFL season, there are changes across all 32 teams – free agent signings, new draft picks, cuts and more. Now, as we move through organized team activities (OTAs) and with the preseason nearly here, we have a clearer picture of what rosters will look like in Week 1, and we can make educated guesses as to who will be prominent members of their offenses. We can also look at what expected impact this will have on fantasy football drafts.

Below, we’ll explore five fantasy football players whose target shares could fall in 2024 and explain their reasons.

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Fantasy Football Expected Target Share Fallers

Stefon Diggs (WR – HOU)

Stefon Diggs comes to the Texans after playing the last four seasons with the Buffalo Bills. He’ll turn 31 during the season and joins a team with several receiving threats, including Nico Collins, Tank Dell, John Metchie III, Dalton Schultz and Joe Mixon.

In 2023 with Buffalo, Diggs had 159 targets in the regular season. Since joining Buffalo he never had fewer than 149.

He’s still worthy of being the No. 1 target, but the Texans recently signed Collins to a three-year, $72.75 million extension, which indicates they think highly of him.

C.J. Stroud played 15 games as a rookie and completed 319-of-499 passes (63.9%). On average, he completed 21.3 passes per game. while that could improve, they do have a running threat in Joe Mixon, who will also demand carries.

This is a classic case of too many options around Diggs, plus a legitimate running back.

Expect Diggs to have fewer targets in 2024 than he did with Buffalo last season.

Travis Kelce (TE – KC)

Travis Kelce had somewhat of an odd 2023 campaign.

Playing in 15 games, Kelce saw 117 targets. He caught 93 of them for 984 yards and just five touchdowns. He caught one touchdown in Week 2 and Week 3 and then just three more the rest of the year.

However, in the postseason, he played four games with double-digit targets in three.

Now, he looks to 2024 with more receiving threats on the Chiefs than last year, including Rashee Rice, who’s back for his second season and could face legal/suspension issues, a one-year signing with Marquise Brown and first-round draft pick Xavier Worthy.

On top of those additions, the Chiefs saw plenty of production from Isiah Pacheco out of the backfield. During the regular season, he had 205 carries for 935 yards and seven scores. He also caught 44 passes for 244 yards and two scores.

We also have to remember Kelce will turn 35 during the season, and we could see him be more of a red-zone threat while Brown, Rice and Worthy help the team get up the field and into scoring range.

Between his age, two new additions and the running game, Kelce’s time as the mainstay TE1 in rankings is slipping fast.

Rashee Rice (WR – KC)

We just discussed the Chiefs situation above. A lot of the same reasons for Kelce’s declining target share will impact Rice.

As a rookie, Rice saw 100 targets across 16 games, but unlike Kelce, Rice is in some legal hot water after a couple of off-the-field issues, including a six-car crash after going 119 miles per hour (MPH).

We’re not legal experts by any means, but based on this, it’s somewhat safe to assume Rice will face some kind of suspension.

With a suspension, his overall targets will certainly drop, but his target share will also take a hit as the potential suspension will give Brown, Kelce, Pacheco and Worthy time to get into a rhythm with Patrick Mahomes.

Rice is still worth drafting, but his best games may not come until later in the season after he returns from suspension and works his way back into being a main target for Mahomes.

Expect Brown and first-round rookie Worthy to be used often by the Chiefs while Pacheco continues to run the ball successfully.

Keenan Allen (WR – CHI) & DJ Moore (WR – CHI)

To round out our list, we’re lumping Keenan Allen and DJ Moore together as they’re on the same team and face similar circumstances as to why their target share will drop — Kelce and Rice were different due to Rice’s potential suspension.

Allen comes over from the Los Angeles Chargers after seeing 145 targets in 2023. Moore, as the No. 1 target for the Bears with a duo of Tyson Bagent and Justin Fields at quarterback last season, saw 132 targets.

The Bears drafted Rome Odunze at No. 9 overall and signed D’Andre Swift and Gerald Everett.

And, of course, the team drafted Caleb Williams first overall as their new starting quarterback.

In 13 games last season, Fields averaged about 17.5 completions and 28.5 attempts per game.

Williams is certainly entering a situation and offense where he could immediately surpass 4,000 passing yards, the most by a Bears quarterback in a single season ever. The collection of weapons, however, helps his fantasy value and development more than each player.

For Moore, it’ll be hard to replicate 132 targets as he’s no longer the clear-cut No. 1 option. As for Allen, he’s well into his 30s and will have a rookie quarterback as opposed to Justin Herbert throwing him the ball as the No. 1 option after an early-season injury to Mike Williams in 2023.

If we use Stroud’s rookie season as a baseline, he averaged about 21.3 completions per game, as mentioned. If Williams matches that and plays all 17 games, he’ll have approximately 362 completions as a rookie, which would be spread across Allen, Moore, Odunze, Cole Kmet, Everett and Swift.

Moore saw 132 of the Bears’ 433 targets last season, a target share north of 30% and extremely difficult to repeat.

Expect this collection of weapons to help Williams, but each will take a bit of a hit in the targets department.

 

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