The final eight teams are set in the NFL. There are a pair of games on Saturday and two more on Sunday. The primary focus of this piece is the main slate and the classic contests, but there are also showdown picks. Since I’m taking a broad view of offensive and defensive tendencies, gamers entering all contest types and entering a modest number of teams or the maximum number of teams into contests should find value in this piece. Here are my top NFL DFS picks and predictions for Lions vs. Commanders.
NFL Divisional Round DFS Picks: Lions vs. Commanders
Spread/Total: DET -9.5/55.5 Points
- Main slate / Classic contest picks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, DET DST, Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown
- Top shelf showdown captains: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jayden Daniels
- Contrarian / Secondary showdown captains: Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta, Terry McLaurin
- Flex showdown only: DET DST, Tim Patrick, Kalif Raymond, Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown
The Lions are coming off a bye in the Wild Card Round, and this game has the highest total on the four-game slate. The game is also the only one indoors, further enhancing the appeal. However, Detroit is a commanding 9.5-point favorite, the largest spread on the slate. As a result, I’m less bullish than the optimizer about Washington’s high-salaried options (i.e., Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin).
Instead, I prefer to lean into Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown among Detroit’s high-salaried players, and Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta as mid-salaried exposure to their sky-high implied total. In Detroit’s previous nine games, they had a balanced offense, with a 52% situation-neutral pass rate.
Gibbs might cede some opportunities to the returning David Montgomery. However, the second-year pro might have performed too well at the end of the year to allow Montgomery to turn the backfield into more than 65% to 35% split with the more explosive Gibbs as the A-side. In three games without Montgomery to close the regular season, Gibbs had 154, 163 and 170 scrimmage yards with one, one and four touchdowns. He also reeled in four, four and five receptions. Gibbs should smash for the favored Lions.
The Sun God, Williams and LaPorta should be the apples of Jared Goff‘s eye through the air. In nine games at home this year, ARSB had 7.0 receptions per game, 81.2 receiving yards per game, five receiving touchdowns and one passing touchdown. Williams is a home-run hitter, and LaPorta played his best ball down the stretch. Lions-leaning and Lions-onslaught lineups are my preferred roster construction in showdown slates.
Circling back to classic contests, cheap exposure to Washington’s ancillary wide receivers is interesting. Detroit allowed the second-most DraftKings and the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers in the regular season. In Washington’s past three games, Olamide Zaccheaus (66.4% route participation rate) and Dyami Brown (45.0% route participation rate) were third and fourth on the Commanders in route participation. Zaccheaus had 0.20 targets per route run, and Brown had 0.25 targets per route run. Their rock-solid roles can allow them to clear the low bar of providing value at their low salaries.
The Commanders have had only a 51% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 10. Yet, Brian Robinson‘s ineffectiveness as a runner to close the regular season and the game’s large spread don’t inspire confidence in him on showdown slates. Instead, pass-catching running back Austin Ekeler is more desirable. Daniels and McLaurin are also elite picks on the showdown slate, and Zach Ertz is a superb flex-only pick.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.