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NFL DFS NFC Championship Round Picks: Eagles vs. Commanders (Fantasy Football)

There are only two contests left before the Super Bowl. The Commanders will play in hostile territory against the Eagles in Philadelphia, and the Bills will face their biggest nemesis in Kansas City. This piece will take a broad view of all four teams playing on Sunday while diving deeper into player-by-player analysis for classic contests and showdown games. Here are our top NFL DFS picks for Eagles vs. Commanders.

NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NFL AFC Championship DFS Picks: Eagles vs. Commanders

Spread/Total: PHI -6.0/47.5 Points

The way the Eagles and Commanders will play offense on Sunday is likely at opposite ends of the spectrum. According to RotoViz’s pace app, since Week 13, the Eagles have had a 50% situation-neutral pass rate, and the Commanders have had a 56% situation-neutral pass rate. In the playoffs, Philadelphia had a 45% situation-neutral pass rate, and Washington had a 53% situation-neutral pass rate.

The defenses will likely influence play-calling tendencies this week, too. Since Week 13, the Eagles have faced a 57% situation-neutral pass rate, and the Commanders have faced a 52% situation-neutral pass rate.

Saquon Barkley is my highest-rostered player in classic contests this week. He had a massive regular season and has kicked it up in the playoffs. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Barkley has had 51 rush attempts in two playoff games this season for 324 rushing yards (162.0 per game), 6.35 yards per carry, 3.78 yards before contact per attempt, 2.57 yards after contact per attempt, 9.8% explosive run rate, 47.1% stuff rate and handled 100% of Philadelphia’s rush attempts inside the five-yard line. He’s also chipped in six targets, six receptions and 31 receiving yards in the playoffs.

Barkley trounced the Commanders in the regular season, and Washington’s run defense hasn’t tightened up. In their last six games, the Commanders have coughed up 143.0 rushing yards per game, 5.20 yards per carry and eight rushing touchdowns. The lineup optimizer justifiably projects Barkley to have the most fantasy points at DraftKings and FanDuel this week.

Jalen Hurts is the only quarterback I’m disinterested in on the classic slate. He banged up his knee last week but was limited in practice on Wednesday and a full participant on Thursday. Hurts isn’t in danger of missing the game, but his ceiling is drastically reduced if the knee injury hampers his rushing ability. He’s still a stellar option in showdown contests, especially since Hurts can punch in a tush-push, and he’s the quarterback for the team with the highest implied total of the week.

Philadelphia’s passing attack is top-heavy, headlined by A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. In the playoffs, Brown has had an obscene 55.2% air yards share but tallied only three receptions for 24 scoreless yards. Brown is a regression candidate.

Goedert has been the team’s most productive pass-catcher in the playoffs, tying for the team lead in target share (24.4%), tying for first in receptions (eight), pacing the club in receiving yards (51.5 per game) and a tie for the team lead with one touchdown reception.

Smith has reeled in all eight of his targets in the playoffs for 76 scoreless yards at a shallow average depth of target (aDOT) of 5.5 yards downfield. If Hurts’ knee injury prompts him to get the ball out quicker, Smith and Goedert (5.0-yard aDOT) could benefit more than Brown (13.3-yard aDOT).

In showdown contests, Jahan Dotson (64.8% route participation and one touchdown in the playoffs), Kenneth Gainwell and Grant Calcaterra (18.5% route participation) are the most viable salary-saving options from Philadelphia’s top-heavy offense. Using any of them helps free up the requisite cap space to jam in multiple studs from both teams.

Jayden Daniels had an underwhelming first meeting against the Eagles before lighting them up in the second meeting. In Week 16, Daniels completed 24 of 39 pass attempts for 258 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions with nine rushes for 81 yards.

The playoff lights haven’t been too bright for the rookie quarterback. Instead, he’s completed 69.7% of his 66 pass attempts for 567 yards (283.5 per game), two passing touchdowns and zero interceptions with one sack, 29 rush attempts and 87 rushing yards. Daniels’ ceiling is leading the slate in fantasy points.

Terry McLaurin is Washington’s No. 1 wide receiver. In the past six games Daniels didn’t exit early with an injury, McLaurin had the following stats.

  • 81.9% route participation
  • 38.5% air yards share
  • 21.8% target share
  • 0.21 targets per route run
  • 30.1% first-read percentage
  • 32 receptions (5.3 per game)
  • 387 receiving yards (64.5 per game)
  • 1.86 yards per route run
  • seven touchdowns
  • five end zone targets

Dyami Brown is the second-most intriguing pass-catching weapon from the Commanders. He’s thrived in the playoffs, tallying a team-high 38.6% air yards share, 0.28 targets per route run, 11 receptions (5.5 per game), 187 receiving yards (93.5 per game), one end zone target and his only touchdown on the end zone target.

Revisiting Daniels’ past six entirely healthy contests, Zach Ertz was second on the Commanders in route participation (63.4%) and first in end zone targets (six). In that period, Ertz had 19 receptions, 195 receiving yards and four touchdowns.

Olamide Zaccheaus is a viable GPP pivot from the likely more popular Brown. In Daniels’ past six healthy contests, Zaccheaus had a 4.7-yard aDOT, 0.22 targets per route run, 22 receptions (3.7 per game), 224 receiving yards (37.3 per game) and three touchdowns. Notably, Zaccheaus had his best game of the year against the Eagles in Week 16, securing five receptions for 70 yards and two touchdowns on eight targets.

Austin Ekeler is Washington’s most DFS-friendly running back if the Commanders lean into the passing attack. In the playoffs, Ekeler has had a 41.6% route participation rate versus 27.3% for Brian Robinson, and Ekeler also handled 14 rushing attempts compared to 25 for Robinson. Ekeler has parlayed his postseason opportunities into 74 rushing yards, 5.29 yards per carry, eight targets, seven receptions and 67 receiving yards.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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