If you are new to the high-stakes world, the drafts can be overwhelming when you first sit down at the table. It is not just the larger amounts of money being played for or the amazing talent drafting against you that can be jarring, but the way rosters are constructed is different from your average fantasy league. In this article, we will talk about my approach to hitters in these types of leagues.
What are you looking for in terms of drafting hitters?
I think it is counterintuitive but when you are thinking about who to draft you should look at the end of the draft first. After you have done your player analysis, you should have a list of players you feel are undervalued at either specific positions or for certain categories, according to their fantasy baseball average draft position (ADP).
For example, if you have a player going late in the draft you love at shortstop then you don’t need to worry as much about targeting a player like Trea Turner or Corey Seager. If you feel there is a lot of cheap speed at the end of the draft then maybe you focus on power and batting average at the top of the draft. Having an endgame strategy should inform your early draft strategy.
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High-Stakes Leagues Draft Strategy: Hitters
Remember, you need to stay balanced because of the overalls in the majority of these contests. Here are the 80th-percentile targets for last season’s main event:
| Runs | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| 1,037 | 290 | 1,000 | 189 | .255 |
Balance is important because there are so many teams involved in the overall that you cannot afford to be too low in any one category. If you are playing in a contest without an overall, you can ignore this part.
Target Volume Players
I love volume players in high-stakes leagues. I know flashy, high-upside players are the ones people push up ADP, but the Marcus Semien types are the ones that pay dividends. If you look at the makeup of teams that win big overall contests, they usually look pretty boring, but they have very good production at every spot. Players like Semien and Bryan Reynolds tend to drop in these drafts because they don’t have a high upside, but you can count on them to produce.
Avoid High-Risk Players
On the flip side, avoid high-risk players. Jazz Chisholm Jr. could be a first-round talent if he stays on the field, but the chance he doesn’t isn’t worth the risk. Especially early in the draft, you should avoid injury-risk players or those with wide ranges of outcomes. If you want to take a gamble on a player like that, do it after the first half of the draft. You are typically going to drop a lot of players you draft in the second half anyway, so that is where you should take those gambles.
Avoid One-Trick Ponies
Another type of player I tend to avoid is the one-trick pony. These are typically players who only contribute in one category but can be elite in that one category. The problem with these types of players is if they get injured or bust you can’t replicate their production off the waiver wire. If you are expecting 50 stolen bases from Pete Crow-Armstrong and he gets injured or loses his job, it is almost impossible to compete in that category. Spread the risk around by drafting as many multi-category performers as you can.
Avoid Prospects
I also avoid prospects who aren’t going to be up on Opening Day. Yes, sometimes stashing a guy like Paul Skenes pays off huge, but they often don’t and the lack of flexibility on your bench can wreak havoc on your team if you get hit with injuries. If you are going to gamble on one of these prospects, make sure it is your only stash. Do not compound your risk by adding multiple players like this or ones who are already injured.
Target Multi-Positional Players
Finally, target multi-positional eligible players in these contests. You don’t have a large bench and in the NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship), you don’t have injured list (IL) spots, so the more roster flexibility you have on your roster the easier the season is to navigate. This also allows you to take more gambles on pitching.
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