Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. I hope you’ve had a profitable week and a wonderful season as we approach the All-Star break. It may be cold outside but the DFS picks have been hot, so here’s to staying in the green.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That will be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money.
We have a six-game slate tonight, which means a bit of picking and choosing here with minimal games. Ultimately, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $12,800
- FanDuel: $12,900
Listen, it’s not the most exciting take to say Nikola Jokic is a good daily fantasy play. I’m not here to play hot takes; I’m here to win you some money. He’s coming off a 70-fantasy point outing with 83 before that and 62 before that, which feels almost like a floor outing.
Jokic averaged 71.2 fantasy points a night on DraftKings during that three-game span and he has the potential every single night to break the slate. I don’t expect him to be as highly rostered tonight against Orlando. The shorter slate means he has a higher make-or-break potential with his price tag. I prefer him in GPPs but he also has the highest floor of anyone on the slate for cash games.
- DraftKings: $8,200
- FanDuel: $8,500
Be forewarned that I will be discussing the Warriors-Lakers game a lot in this DFS article. With that out of the way, Steph Curry sets up to be in a smash spot tonight. No more Andrew Wiggins, no more Dennis Schroder, Jimmy Butler isn’t playing yet, and no Moses Moody. Oh and did I mention Curry is only $8,200 on DraftKings.
While he may be past his prime, the future Hall of Famer is set up for quite the night in a game where it feels like all eyes will be on both squads as two of the most active trade-deadline teams.
I’m not a big narrative guy but it feels like Curry is going to step up when the spotlight is on him out in Hollywood. Sure, Draymond Green is back, but he’s not exactly one to take away from the scoring spotlight. We’ve seen Curry go past 60 DraftKings points this year. It’s only a matter of time before he does it again.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $10,800
- FanDuel: $10,400
With Anthony Davis gone and Luka Doncic still not on the lineup, this will be the LeBron James show for a little while. His usage sits around 36% and he should see the floor for around 33 minutes. Golden State’s defense is bottom-10 in the league, especially recently, and the Warriors pace up the Lakers, giving them some extra possessions.
James has been clear about his love for returning home and the only reason I’m including him in the cash section is because I expect him to be quite highly rostered. Still, he makes for a fine GPP play while being a near-cash game lock.
- DraftKings: $6,000
- FanDuel: $5,800
With Draymond Green back in the lineup, I’m a little surprised at how low his price has stayed despite seeing the court for nearly 30 minutes in his first game back. Sure, he didn’t have the best outing but that was against Orlando and he should have a much better experience against the Lakers tonight.
Green is averaging 27 DraftKings points a night. He projects for around 33 tonight with what should be higher usage in Los Angeles. His low price offers up the ability to spend up elsewhere and lock in a cash win, especially with Moses Moody out and no more Wiggins.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $7,000
- FanDuel: $7,300
There are many moving parts right now in the NBA and Sacramento is one of those teams. It might not be a huge deal but plays into the part of loving a potential ceiling game for Deandre Ayton tonight, who is capable of a 58-fantasy point outing like he did three nights ago against Phoenix.
It helps that this game is at home, where Ayton is improved, and the total sits at 230, which looks like it will be the highest total on the slate. Still, Ayton isn’t seeing much rostership and considering he’s broken 40 in five out of his last seven games, I like him as a GPP pivot against a Sacramento squad that ranks middle of the pack in allowing fantasy points to opposing centers.
- DraftKings: $9,000
- FanDuel: $9,200
Early rostership projections can be fickle but right now James Harden is sitting around 14 % rostership and that is simply too low. It’s all about finding opportunities and ceilings when it comes to GPP plays.
The Pacers are the sixth-fastest-paced team in the league with the 19th-ranked defense. It’s not as if they are stifling to guards. Harden has his 30% usage with 34 minutes a night to give him a steady floor. He’s gone over 60 DraftKings points a few times already this year and has shown the capacity for 70.
I do expect rostership to come around to Harden, but for now, he makes for an excellent large-field GPP play. Your potential bring-back option who also should be a solid GPP play is Pascal Siakam.
NBA DFS Value Plays
Brandin Podziemski (PG, SG GSW)
- DraftKings: $4,400
- FanDuel: $5,100
We shall see how the lineup shakes out in Golden State tonight but right now I’m projecting Brandin Podziemski to get slotted into the starting lineup. Monitor starting lineups as Gary Payton may be slotted into the first five. Either way, the Warriors guard should be a great value with Dennis Schroder gone and extra room to play on the court.
When he’s on the court, Podziemski sees a 21% usage rate, so he’s getting his fill when he sees minutes, and that should only increase here. He’s a bit of a riskier play with a low floor but higher ceiling because who knows what happens with the Warriors’ rotation. The other Warrior option is Quinten Post, but I’m not sure who to trust between him and Kevon Looney.
- DraftKings: $5,300
- FanDuel: $6,000
I don’t love how I’m all in on Lakers and Warriors rostership but with the way the two teams sit with their current rotation after the abundance of trades, I don’t expect to be the only one.
Somebody has to score points here besides LeBron James. Rui Hachimura has seen an increase in usage of late and should expect to play around 30 minutes tonight. I do expect more value to open up on the slate as we get closer to lock and maybe eight more trades happen before the deadline today, who knows. But right now, I’m happy going with the Gonzaga product who should see increased minutes and usage tonight.
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