Last week, we covered Rafael Devers and his struggles at the plate. This week, we are going to discuss whether his recent bounceback is for real. It is funny how quickly the conversation turns within the ether of this fantasy baseball space. Every 0-for-4 day at the plate or blow-up outing is dissected and overanalyzed.
Fantasy Baseball 10 Burning Questions
There is value in the day-to-day stats, but in the grand scheme of this game, we are still so, so early. The biggest factor to consider for all players is health. If players are not healthy, it is no surprise they are not performing up to snuff.
Unfortunately, teams don’t always fully reveal injury reports, and players will even hide the severity of discomfort (Blake Snell) before it is too late. Retroactive analysis helps us piece the puzzle of poor performance together, but also stinks when eating consecutive bad outings or stretches.
This week’s ’10 Burning Questions’ are below. For any questions or concerns, contact me on Twitter/X (@RotoSurgeon).
1.) Is Rafael Devers back?
Maybe, but probably not. Rafael Devers hit his first home run this past weekend, is getting balls in play and has more walks than strikeouts in April. However, he has a mediocre .148 ISO and an inflated .412 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) — compared to his career .317 mark — through 64 plate appearances this season.
It is nice to see Devers is more than a complete zero, but this “resurgence” is hard to trust. He has faced multiple bad, right-handed pitchers in this recent hot stretch and remains a sell based on his nagging shoulder from last season through spring.
2.) What’s wrong with the Reds’ offense?
The team is not at full strength, and to maximize the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park, the weather needs to heat up. Both require patience, but the payoff can be huge for those over-leveraged with Reds pieces.
Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson, Austin Hays and now Matt McLain will all have missed significant time between spring and now. Steer has played most of this season, but he appears far from 100% as his recovery from a shoulder injury was expedited. His plate discipline and quality of contact have suffered due to this issue, but with some BABIP regression, he should get back to form soon.
The other three hitters are currently on the injured list (IL) and will likely not return until after next week at the earliest. If the offense can get healthy and stay healthy, we should have a very potent corps centered around superstar Elly De La Cruz.
3.) Why does Zac Gallen hate us?
Zac Gallen has a 5.28 ERA through three starts this season. His 3.90 xFIP and 3.79 SIERA suggest he has dealt with some bad luck overall. He gave up nine combined earned runs in his first and third start, yet zero in his second.
Given that his second start was in New York against the red-hot Yankees at the time, many probably benched him to preserve their fantasy ratios. Those with this valid trepidation watched him strike out 13 batters while giving up just three hits and zero walks.
Gallen’s next start comes at home against a middling Milwaukee offense. While Gallen should be started, the Brewers are sixth in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. Fortunately, teams coming off games in Colorado typically struggle in the following series as the abrupt change in altitude takes a few days to acclimate to.
4.) When should I start to worry about Mark Vientos?
In a month or so. Mark Vientos is having a very poor start to the season on the surface but his expected stats are not far from last season (.316 xwOBA vs. .331 xwOBA) while his plate discipline is bordering on elite as he boasts a 14.3% walk rate and a 18.4% strikeout rate, both much improved relative to last season.
The Mets head to Sacramento’s hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park this weekend to face the Athletics’ poor pitching rotation. There is a good chance Vientos, along with the rest of his offense, bounces back together by Sunday.
5.) How long is Blake Snell going to be out?
Unfortunately, this shoulder injury does not sound short-term. Blake Snell reported that his ailing shoulder had been nagging since spring but that he could power through it. This, of course, was not the case as he landed on the 15-day IL with a longer stay expected.
The Dodgers’ marquee offseason signing has a history of arm issues and has pitched over 130 innings in a season just once since 2019. Snell may undergo an injection to relieve the pain and allow him a quicker healing period, but that does not always cure issues and may just mask them. Hopefully, this shoulder injury is just general soreness rather than a strain that could be exacerbated, if not worse, completely torn.
Trent Grisham is slashing .367/.441/.700 with the lowest strikeout rate of his career (17.6%) through 11 games this season. Of course, he will not keep up this torrid pace, and his strikeouts will creep closer to his career 26.2% rate, but maybe he is breaking out.
Grisham is a former 15th-overall draft pick who was a hot commodity when he was younger. He slashed .243/.342/.437 through 435 plate appearances between 2019 and 2020 to start his career and has been a great defensive center fielder. His bat struggled from 2022 through 2024 due to his pulled-ball tendencies and the Padres’ extremely pitcher-friendly park.
Grisham operated as a part-time player for the Yankees last season. He appeared in 76 games but earned just 209 plate appearances. He was utilized heavily late in games for defensive purposes. Grisham has an everyday role to start this year due to the loss of Giancarlo Stanton and has made the most of it.
Grisham’s expected stats are not far from his surface average and slugging percentage, but his BABIP is several points higher than his career average. At 28 years old, Grisham could be taking another step in fantasy and reality. He should continue to play every day and may provide plenty of fantasy upside. Take the shot in leagues with 12+ teams and grab him from the waiver wire.
The Rays placed Josh Lowe on the 15-day IL last week and have given us fantasy baseball players two talented outfielders to choose between as a result. Jake Mangum is a 29-year-old rookie who has very good speed and bats from both sides. Kameron Misner is a 27-year-old rookie with big power, comparable speed to Mangum and a better ability to take walks. Misner also has strikeout issues and a platoon problem.
Through roughly 10 games for each, Misner has shown much more with his bat while Mangum is slightly outperforming his expected numbers. Mangum has just two extra-base hits thus far, while Misner’s power is on display with five. Both are running high BABIPs and impressively low strikeout rates, but even with Misner expecting more regression, he is the better choice.
Misner’s power is far greater, while the steals should come soon. Mangum’s five steals in nine games are tantalizing, but he may not be long for the Majors if his average cannot stay near the league lead.
8.) Are the Cubs going to stay this hot?
To a degree, yes. It is fun to watch the Cubs’ best offense since their days of World Series contention with Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez. This new surge is led by offseason acquisition Kyle Tucker, who should be in the lead for National League MVP through three weeks.
Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Michael Busch are all carrying this offense as well, while Matt Shaw and Pete Crow-Armstrong present major upside on the back end. Those young speedsters have been cold to start the season, and it has not mattered.
The Cubs have the most runs in baseball, albeit with a few more games played. They could remain towards the top all season if health permits and the wind blows out for most of the summer in Wrigley.
9.) Who is the Phillies’ closer?
It is Jose Alvarado. Jordan Romano is likely useless this season after arthroscopic elbow surgery to alleviate his ulnar neuritis. Last season was not Romano’s first bout with elbow issues, which have been compounded with back problems as well. Romano’s decline has been underway since his overperformance in 2023.
Meanwhile, Alvarado is coming off a 13-save season for the Phillies and has two already this season. The veteran left-hander is bolstering a 1.42 ERA thus far, backed by an even lower 1.12 SIERA and 0.82 xFIP. He is looking like his 2022 through 2023 self, which is the level of a high-end closer who should be universally rostered.
Very. The former 55th-overall pick is having a historic start to his rookie season. While his ratios will decrease as his strikeouts increase, there is a happy middle for production from Kyren Paris. In Double-A between 2022 and 2023, Paris was roughly 40% better than the average offensive player while walking 18% of the time. His 28% strikeout rate in this span is poor but acceptable for a player who was young for that level.
Paris jumped levels quickly and earned a call to the Majors in 2023. He was not ready then or in 2024, but this season appears to be his to own. He should be rostered in just about every league given his power/speed combo, even if you already have a second baseman.
Paris should attain outfield eligibility shortly and will not be impacted by the return of Zach Neto, as Tim Anderson is the likely player to lose out.
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