It’s never too early to start talking about fantasy football busts. Finding out which players may heavily underperform expectations takes far more than just comparing their final ranking last year with their current ADP or consensus rank. That’s because injuries and changes to a player’s role or situation can have huge impacts on every player’s season-long output or final ranking. Injury-prone players or athletes who start the season hurt are always a massive risk, especially in the early rounds. Plus, changes like the loss of a reliable quarterback or the potential for a younger player to steal a veteran’s job are risks to account for when evaluating every skill player across the football landscape. Inconsistent, boom-or-bust athletes who produced the majority of their fantasy points in a few games are another trap that ensnares plenty of fantasy managers each year.
Our featured pundits know exactly what to look for when identifying potential busts. So to help you begin your research, they’ve each listed an RB and WR they think have the biggest odds of falling short of expectations. Read on below to see who you may want to think twice about selecting and why.
Early Bust Candidates: Wide Receivers
What WR in our consensus top 24 should fantasy managers fear the most as a bust candidate?
Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)
“Zay Flowers sitting at WR21 in rankings feels rich. Flowers didn’t even pay off at that rate last year, so I don’t know why we’re projecting for even better in 2025. Last year, Flowers was the WR31 in fantasy points per game. With the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins and Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson, and Mark Andrews still on the roster, I don’t know how Flowers finishes with enough touchdowns to vault himself into the top 24, even if we aren’t worried about target volume. Last year, Flowers was 59th in red-zone targets, and I don’t see that changing in 2025. He’ll be a solid WR3, but asking Flowers to produce as a WR2 is too much.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“Until he can prove otherwise, Zay Flowers should be viewed as a bust in fantasy for the foreseeable future. Right now, there is no reason to suspect Flowers will see much of an increase in volume in Baltimore next season. Seeing Flowers finished lower than WR35 in nine of 17 games last season, I see little reason to believe in Flowers next year as anything more than a volatile boom/bust candidate.”
– Trevor Land (FlurrySports)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
“As much as we’d like to assume Marvin Harrison Jr. takes a big leap forward in year two, we are just as likely to get more of the same. Nothing much will change in the Cardinals’ offense from last year, including QB Kyler Murray. Although his numbers are “good enough” to keep him fantasy-relevant, he simply hasn’t supported high-end production from his receivers other than TE Trey McBride for years. For his part, Harrison didn’t show the ability to make contested catches and averaged a lackluster 1.67 Yards Per Route Run. He’ll likely be a consensus top-20 WR on draft boards, but he’s not a slam-dunk to finish much better than last year when he was WR30 in PPR.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
“Tyreek Hill (WR14 in the rankings) had a disappointing 2024 season. The veteran was drafted as a top-three wide receiver, only to finish as the WR21, averaging 10.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. While many have blamed Tua Tagovailoa‘s health on Hill’s struggles, that’s inaccurate. The veteran averaged 7.9 targets and 12.4 fantasy points per game in the 11 contests Tagovailoa started. He would have ranked as the WR19 on a points-per-game basis with that 12.4 average. Hill is on the wrong side of 30 and struggled last year. Fantasy players shouldn’t draft him as a high-end WR2.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“After rattling off 1,000 yards in five straight seasons, Tyreek Hill failed to meet that mark in 2024. Hill also had the fewest total touchdowns for any season of his career, with 6. Could some of that be attributed to Tua Tagovailoa missing time, or are we seeing the beginning of the end? Once Tua returned to the saddle for Miami, the Dolphins offense revolved around getting the ball out of his hand as quickly as possible, with Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane benefitting. Currently, Hill is the WR14 in the ECR, which is simply too rich of a price to pay for fantasy managers that are hoping for a bounce back.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
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