Regression often comes at players quickly. When we see a player on an extreme hot or cold streak, things are likely to course correct. That’s what we will try to predict here, with some advice on how to handle these moments with some fantasy baseball trade advice. Let’s look at a few players to buy low and others to sell high this week in fantasy baseball.
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Fantasy Baseball Buy Low & Sell High
Last week, this piece correctly predicted positive regression for Brice Turang (.286 average, .400 OBP, four steals) and negative regression for Byron Buxton (.222 average with one home run before he was sidelined with a concussion). Regression, whether positive or negative, doesn’t always happen that fast, but the signs are often clear.
With the first eight weeks of the Major League Baseball season behind us and still 110+ games to go for almost every team, there will be a lot of positive and negative regression moving forward. Let’s take a look at some of the past week’s largest outliers and see what their futures might look like.
(Stats up to date through May 19th)
Buy Low: Players Due for Positive Regression
Except for new leadoff man Jeremy Pena, the entire Houston Astros offense is in a funk right now, despite their 25-22 record. Over the last seven days, the Astros are 22nd in runs, team batting average and slugging percentage. Yordan Alvarez is hurt. Christian Walker and Yainer Diaz are slumping big-time. Franchise cornerstone Jose Altuve is mired in a streak that has him hitting .077/.172/.115 in his last 30 plate appearances. Unsurprisingly, he has zero home runs, RBI or stolen bases in that time.
Jose Altuve when batting third in the Astros order:
.318 Batting Average
38 Home Runs
159 RBI
411 HitsAltuve will be hitting third for the Astros tonight against the Rays pic.twitter.com/2Kkd16J90N
– StrosZone (@StrosZone_) May 19, 2025
Like many Astros, Altuve doesn’t suffer from any under-the-hood decline. His hard-hit rate is almost identical to last season, and his contact rate and zone contact rate are both 2% better than in 2024. Where Altuve is suffering is in batting average on balls in play (BABIP). While the league average is around .290 this season, Altuve is at a paltry .091 over the last week. For his career, Altuve is at .328, so look for a turnaround soon. His strikeout rate is still elite and under 20%, so there is no real reason why Altuve should be hitting this poorly.
Jasson Dominguez was one of the most hyped and also scrutinized prospects heading into 2025. His pedigree as a dominant hitter outshone his defensive shortcomings in the outfield, and the Yankees made him a starter, hoping his bat could compensate for the loss of Juan Soto to free agency and Giancarlo Stanton to injury. It was a rocky start, but things started looking up. He hit three home runs and drove in seven runs on May 9th. All seemed right in the fantasy world on that day, but since then, it’s been another crash and burn.
Your early contenders for AL Rookie of the Year ? pic.twitter.com/ErdqJuyDSZ
– MLB (@MLB) May 20, 2025
Dominguez has just five hits in 31 plate appearances since that huge day, including zero home runs and just two RBI. But despite how bad it may look right now, there are signs this slump is just temporary, and another hot streak could be right around the corner. His strikeout rate is still under 20%. Dominguez’s walk rate is over 19% in that span, which is in the top 13 in the entire league. He is seeing the ball just fine, but has a low BABIP (.231), and has seen his hard-hit balls not fall for hits like they had been in his first month.
This is still an elite skill set with a 53% hard-hit rate this year. Rookies are going to experience these kinds of ups and downs, but a lot more “ups” should be in Dominguez’s future the rest of the season.
Sell High: Players Due for Negative Regression
There aren’t many hitters in baseball hotter than Riley Greene right now. Over his last seven games, Greene is hitting .360/.385/.720 with a pair of homers and six RBI. The Tigers are on a hot streak, partially because of offensive performances from Greene and Spencer Torkelson. But there are several things in the profile — both short and long-term — that prove Greene’s amazing season might start to come down to earth, even if just slightly.
Riley Greene, last 20 games.
85 PA, .351/.412/.714, 4 2B, 8 HR, 20% K#RepDetroit pic.twitter.com/f44lfZaAnG
– Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) May 17, 2025
The first thing that should catch your eye when you look at Greene’s splits over the last seven days is his strikeout rate. At 35%, it’s one of the highest in baseball and in the range of guys like Pete Alonso and Marcus Semien, who are struggling right now. Second would be his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). At .500 over the last seven days, he has one of the highest rates in the league. While Greene is having a great start to the season with 11 home runs and 30 RBI, some numbers compared to last year are troubling. His walk rate is down more than 4%, and his strikeout rate is up three points.
If he can get those back in check, the power should remain. But that level of discipline is worrisome, as to whether the power can continue over four more months.
Gavin Lux has been on absolute fire for the Cincinnati Reds over the last 25 plate appearances. He is hitting .364/.391/.545 despite hitting zero home runs to add to that slugging percentage. This surge has forced the Reds to move him up to the top five in the order in 12 of his last 13 games. Lux, Will Benson and Elly De La Cruz have formed a trio that is one of the hottest in the league right now. But while we have seen De La Cruz do this before, players like Lux are relying a little too much on luck and some fortunate circumstances for their good hitting.
Lux, like many players who are on supernatural hot streaks right now, is getting very lucky with his balls in play. Among all qualified batters in the last seven days, Lux’s BABIP of .533 ranks eighth. While that’s enough good fortune to give him a .364 average, somehow, he is doing it with a strikeout rate of 30% as well. This tells me he is not seeing the ball as well as he was early in the season. He is striking out seven times for every walk taken in that span.
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